Very frustrating on Thursday – Danielle was out battled by Santorini Star who has really improved, and then Respond backed into 2/1 from 14/1 got the ew money but was beaten by a 20/1 John Gosden unconsidered outsider. I think he would have won with stronger handling.
Given the excellent Clarehaven Stables record at this fixture they look in pole position to further boost their win ratio with two more winners on Friday.
Sweet William comes into his own at Doncaster and looks to have another Doncaster Cup in his grasp. He is 11/8 in the early markets but given the level of opposition that looks about right.
The most impressive winner of a handicap at the York Ebor meeting was Cape Flora and the 9lb weight rise looks manageable. The one question surrounds the going which will still be on the soft side on Friday and all her wins have been on fast ground.
However on her dams side she is closely related to high level German Group 1 horses including the Arc winner Walgeist who beat Enable in a bog at Longchamp with most of the family excelling in soft ground.
She is bred to be a listed or group rated filly who will stay 1m 4f + and 88 does not look enough to stop her progress. She is potentially a vital part in the future of a highly successful International breeding operation and another win here opens the door to black type and massive value as a broodmare.
I have taken the 3/1 and believe she will be less than 2/1 at the off.
Like Shadow Dance she is part owned by the Newsells Park Stud on what should be a very good day for them.
2pt Win Cape Flora 3/1 3.40 Doncaster
Three Somerville Lodge horses head to Doncaster, starting with the unraced Fractional in the 4.10 – No Bet Recommended and then with Art Lover and Magic Stone in the 4.45 Nursery.
Art Lover is not especially well treated off a mark of 87, he won a race at Ffos Las where the favourite under performed and had little to beat. The handicapper seems to have rated the race based on the favourite Gouken running to form which i don’t think he did. i am surprised he has been priced up as the early favourite.
However Marquand chooses the colt in preference to Magic Stone and Jason Hart takes the ride. Could this be a repeat of Rhapsody and Seren Star on Sunday?
Given the poor Haggas record at the meeting I am going to leave it alone.
No Bet Recommended
The Mallard Handicap at 1.15 is almost a repeat of last years race with the 2nd and 3rd Subsequent and Shadow Dance meeting again although this year with Shadow Dance 8lb better off at the weights.
The ground will also be the same and with the field although in general looking above average for the race i think Shadow Dance is ready to get another win to his name.
It is only the third run of the season for Shadow Dance who was an eyecatcher in both his two starts in better races at Goodwood and York. The Varian horses were misfiring at York but they are now in a rich vein of form.
The 5yo was probably the best fancied of the home team in the Ebor and having stumbled half way got caught 10L off the pace, he then made up the ground far too quickly to lead the race 2f out but paid for that move weakening only in the last 100yds in the centre of the track with the first four Irish raiders coming up the stand side rail.
In last years race he got caught for a turn of foot when Ryan Moore was allowed to set slow fractions on East India Dock. This year’s renewal looks likely to be ran at an even pace and he is well handicapped to go better on Friday.
I really like the booking of Ray Dawson who is greatly under rated. At 9/2, Shadow Dance is a confident selection.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Shadow Dance 1.15 Doncaster – 9/2 or bigger
The yard sends one runner to Sandown
The basis of our betting is when stats and visual performance data align. It is occasionally difficult to ignore when one aspect says this is a bet and the other screams at you not to invest.
We have a case in point on Friday, with Purple Rainbow in the 7f fillies handicap the 4.50 at Sandown.
In many aspects she resembles the form of Rhapsody who landed a big gamble at York on Sunday. Originally, thought to be listed class she failed to meet those expectations but as a result dropped down the ratings and was dropped in trip to land a decent handicap prize.
Purple Rainbow fits that pattern, however the Haggas yard is 0-26 with 3yo’s in handicaps at Sandown ran in September this century. Which poses a considerable doubt. Her first run at York over 7f was encouraging
Our success over the years is based on alignment of the two factors so the advise is to watch and not invest.
No Bet Recommended
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