Its been a difficult few weeks for the Haggas yard with the surreal draw drama at Longchamp impacting on several of the main races targeted.
For us although we have correctly cut right back on recommendations it was nice to land the gamble on Thursday with Term of Endearment backed from 2/1 winning at 5/4.
The show goes on and there is a team of nine being prepared to head to post on Friday.
Scoville who was thought to be a potential superstar before flopping badly in France when backed into odds on, in a step up from Novice to Group 3 company, is on the comeback trail in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at 2.25.
The fact that he is up in grade again suggests the yard have put a line through the last run and maintain belief in the 3yo. It is hard not to make comparisons with the Karl Burke trained Zeus Olympics who has achieved exactly what Scoville attempted but has remained unbeaten in four starts and is now heading for Group 1 races.
In could be argued that the first trip overseas caused Scoville to blow out. He is the outsider in a small field of 5, with the unreliable Cosmic Year a very opposable favourite. He was almost unrideable in Deauville and it is one of those races where you will only know the true chance he has after watching the preliminaries and the first furlong. If he is the horse anticipated after his first two races he will win this but the extent of the failure in France makes that ‘If’ is too big a risk to bet on.
No Bet Recommended
15 minutes later in the 2.40 at York Mukhtalif makes his handicap debut off a mark of 81. It is no surprise that the Ante-Post market has him as the 11/4 favourite.
He has been thought of as a 90+ horse and was a bitter disappointment when he got beat at Windsor in his second race, on ground effected by a torrential rainstorm minutes before the off.
On his next race he was beat again in a hot maiden at Haydock, the form of which has worked out well and he finally broke his maiden winning at 1/7 at Newcastle, where he was far from impressive. However, that has resulted in the rating of 81 which potentially makes him very well handicapped.
Canvas and Jupiter Ammon will ensure a good pace and i expect Mukhtalif to track the pair with the other runners held up. Those include a cliff horse for us this season Hornsea Bay, who remains well handicapped but is in the upcoming Horses in Training sales along with Mukhtalif.
There is no doubt he has been a disappointing horse to date and that planned appearance in the Horses In Training sales suggests he may well not live up to his potential. Although on that maiden run behind Respond at Haydock he is very well handicapped as is the winner Respond who is favourite for the Old Rowley Cup later in day at 3.30. Looking at his last two runs he has been weak through the line and the extra half a furlong of this race may find him out – on balance I will choose not to play.
No Recommended Bet
In the York 2yo Novice stakes at 3.18 the very promising Thaluna is fully expected to win on her second outing. Karl Burke has an interesting newcomer but first time out 2yo winners from the yard have become less frequent as the season has progressed and it will take a very useful unraced filly to beat Thaluna.
The price of 5/4 reflects this but if there is no money for La Belle Forest she will go off odds on. The yard is 0-12 with 2yo’s at York in Maidens and Novice Stakes in October which is good enough reason not to get stuck in to the 5/4.
No Bet Recommended.
The biggest handicap of the day is the Old Rowley Cup at Newmarket 3.30.
The yard originally also entered the progressive handicappers Tenability, Valiancy and Klassleader in the race but Yabher was the only entry at the 5 day stage. Probably as he is the best suited to 12f.
He had a very unfortunate last run when taking a false step and stumbling, losing any chance of victory at Goodwood. He was a big drifter on the day and after pulling very hard in the early stages would have done well to be involved in the finish without the false step.
It is a race where surprisingly, given the conditions, the yard has a very poor record 0-10 with 4th the best placed and together with Yabher’s style of racing with the choke out, it is hard to make a strong case for backing him.
One of our big handicap gambles of the season Respond 14/1 into 2/1 returns to the track in this contest and if he settles will take all the beating.
No Bet Recommended
Concert in the York 3.50 has another attempt at a Nursery win. However , she lacks the early pace required to win a Nursery at York on Good or Faster ground and her chance rests with the front runners going, too quick too soon and picking up pieces at the end of the race. She is an each way chance but I will watch.
No Bet Recommended
The 2yo Albaydaa was beaten first time out when odds on at Yarmouth. However that is totally irrelevant to a Haggas 2yo first time out and the promise she showed was still very encouraging. She returns in the 4.05 Kempton, but this race will be noted for the first ride for Ryan Moore’s son Toby on Valdorcia and the disappointing Tarot.
No Bet Recommended
In the 4.25 at York Kinswoman takes a step up in grade to a Class 3 Handicap at York off her highest mark yet of 83.
She is a filly i have always liked and she has the perfect set up in stall 8 with the pace in the race coming centre field. However, this is the first time she will come up against, hardened tough older handicappers and she may get bullied out of her stride – she has been put in as 9/2 favourite which is more to do with the Haggas factor than the realistic chances of winning.
No Bet Recommended
In the listed race that closes the Newmarket card at 4.45, the 5yo Frances Ethel makes her stable debut. She is the outsider of the field at 28/1 and her previous form in South Africa suggests she is not up to this class.
No Bet Recommended.
In the 5.05 finale at York Noble Horizon will be a big price in the ultra competitive 20 runner 10f handicap. He has been dropped 2lb down to 85 but that still looks high for what he has achieved and it will be a surprise if he wins before heading to the Horses in Training sales later this month.
No Bet Recommended
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