On Friday at Thirsk we highlighted the danger of following supposed gambles on Somerville Lodge trained horses, typified by Scoville who was cut from 7/1 to 2/1 but was reported to be in need of the race beforehand and ran accordingly.
There are two further cases already this week.
In the Fillies maiden at Newmarket on Thursday the Cheveley Park filly Point Bleu – not surprisingly by Blue Point -makes her debut in a field of just six.
Debutants from the yard are very rarely ready to perform well first time out and she will need to be pretty smart to beat the Goldophin filly Hassaleh who was 3rd on her debut behind the 99 rated listed placed Bella Lyra. The 6/4 about that filly could look huge if none of the other newcomers are thought ready to run – the 15/8 price offered for Point Bleu could well drift to around 3/1 or bigger. Certainly a No Bet Race
Before looking at the other two runners on Thursday a quick look at Saturdays Newbury Spring Cup where Eternal Force has been installed as the early favourite at 6/1 . Given the forecast is for little or no rain at the track I would think Eternal Force is at least 10/1 to even run in the race.
Horses can make fools of anyone, but if ever a horse ran as though it needed cut in the ground it was Eternal Force at Doncaster and I will certainly not back him on ground with good in the forecast track conditions.
Back to Newmarket on Thursday Elmonjed makes his debut in the Group 3 Abernant stakes at 3.00. The ultra consistent 5yo usually needs its first run of the season and the early price of 16/1 is a reflection of his chances.
It is not such a surprise that Albaydaa was introduced as the 4/1 favourite for the opening 3yo Handicap on Thursday equally though the drift to 11/2 was also predictable.
Ridden by the excellent Saffie Osbourne, who looks likely to be on a number of the Shadwell Stud horses until Jim Crowley is fit to return, the daughter of Pinatubo, had three quick runs in modest company in the Autumn of 2025 winning easily on the latest run beating another Shadwell horse Ritaal by 5L.
Ritaal was sold soon afterwards- the form hasn’t worked out and the mark of 83 isn’t generous.
Hardy’s Hero was well backed and only just touched off by a horse that had a run on the AW in a steadily ran handicap on Tuesday , which given we took a watching brief was just about the perfect result. I am not sure of the value of the form given the slow time.
Most of Haggas 3yo’s winners at this meeting in previous years have had a prep race in the calendar year and given all the recent 3yo runners have just needed their first run of the season, despite the promise of Hardy’s Hero I still won’t be getting involved with Albaydaa on Thursday.
I appreciate the lack of bets is frustrating but the results have proved this to be the right policy and we have money in the bank with over 17.00pts ahead to level stakes for the current season from only 6 bets advised.
REFA Hag Tag 2026
Saffie Osborne due to ride for William Haggas and Shadwell Stud on Thursday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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