The various interviews with William Haggas in the last 14 days has relayed a combination of high expectation and frustration in equal measures. The results on the course have mirrored his comments with many of the horses running with great promise but equally very few entering the winners enclosure.
Every one connected with the yard have been adamant the horses are needing their first run, which has been backed up by the results. However certainly at Newbury there was a sense of frustration that this reality was continuing.
The victories last week of the Derby entry’s Morshdi and Maltese Cross were a welcome ray of light especially as there is every reason to believe that like the rest of the 3yo’s they will improve for the run.
I think the frustration has largely been because several of the better fancied runners have not only needed the race but have also been very fresh which has resulted in them not finishing off their races.
In the list can be included Sea Force, Crown Office, Realign and Scoville.
Horses that look ready to be supported on their next outing, in addition to the pair in the Derby, are Needle Match who must have every chance of reversing the form of the Greenham in the 2000 Guineas, given he was held up last in a slowly ran race, Zooming who ran really well in the Fred Darling Song of the Clouds, Albaydaa, Weheedd, Hardy’s Hero, Tenability and Arabian Force
There is still a need to be cautious with the first time out 3yo’s and those that showed little on their first run.
A perfect example was the run of Weffaag who, as we indicated on Friday, was heavily supported from 9/2 into odds on to win under Danny Tudhope at Thirsk on Saturday. The race was delayed by about 20 mins due to several horses breaking loose and Weffaag missed the break and then got left in mid-pack in a slowly run race. He made excellent progress inside the final furlong but was not given a hard race finishing 3rd. He can be added to the list of potential next time out winners.
The Haggas levels of frustration I am sure would have gone through the roof when Al Aasy and Tenability were nabbed inside the last 50yds by Convergent finishing 2nd and 3rd in the John Porter Stakes. Tenability ran a great race and possibly stepped up to 1m 5f is another winner in waiting.
Newbury continued winnerless on Saturday when King of Earth gave up the favoured stand side rail having been drawn in stall 26 and then met trouble in running. As soon as Marquand gave that position away I got the impression that the horse was ridden to see if he had a turn of foot over a mile and I don’t think he stayed the trip. He will probably be dropped back to 7f to break his maiden tag next time out. He is not like Crown of Oaks who finished 4th in the same race in 2025 but needed a step up to 10f in order to win.
Finally on Saturday in the opener at Nottingham the two fillies Shadida and Palace Artois were 20/1 and 40/1 – neither out running those odds.
When the dust settles over the next two weeks leading up to the Guineas the frustration will I believe be replaced by a great level of expectation and a host of winners.
I get the sense that next week will be used to get extra work into a lot of the top horses and they will ready to fire from the weekend onwards. There are a few maidens entered but nothing approaching a betting opportunity until Friday at the earliest.
In terms of winners to runners 2026 is the worse start to a year since 2005 for Somerville Lodge ,- we have by and large predicted this and as we are over 20pts in front there is much to look forward too.
REFA Hag Tag 2026
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