After the thrill of the Guineas festival weekend there is a nice interlude before Chester kicks off on Wednesday.
The Guineas weekend ended with Dramatic Star becoming very worked up in the parade ring, drifting from 9/2 to 9/1 and we were beaten before the start of the race . He has ran out of excuses now and is not a horse that should be backed again.
The weekend did end on a high – the Haggas win streak in maidens and novices at Salisbury in May continued when Poetry in Time landed a touch from as big as 5/1 into Evs (r4). That made it 6 from the last 7 runners from Somerville Lodge to win this type of race at the track. There are two more meetings at the Wiltshire track this month so look out for the run to get even better.
On Monday and Tuesday a few of the novices and maidens get a chance to gain racecourse experience.
4 horses were entered in the Windsor Class 3 Novice over 8f due off 3.33. The unraced Kingman colt Kahin and the twice raced Sea the Stars colt Windbreaker take their chance and both should be watched with the future in mind.
Thunder Call goes to Kempton for the class 4 maiden at 2.35 . He showed promise on his second outing at Doncaster but that race was on bottomless ground and although this looks a two horse race – and he could easily win, the price will be short and personally I will wait until the move into handicap company before getting involved in him financially.
On Tuesday Guestimate is entered in the restricted Novice stakes at Wolverhampton. He is another maiden that needs to show a better level of form before he can be considered as a betting opportunity.
A more detailed look at Chester will follow on Tuesday but there is an early Ante Post opportunity.
It is clearly a risky strategy to back against O’Brien and Ryan Moore in the Derby Trials around Chester. Although his Guineas runners performed well at Newmarket, there are still doubts about his Derby horses.
In the hope that they may not be fully right for Chester this year, the early market for Thursday’s Dee Stakes does provide us with an opportunity to bet on the Haggas trained Feilden Stakes winner Morshdi.
Constitution River will head the market at cramped odds if as looks likely he is the Ballydoyle selected runner. Morshdi is available at 4/1 (1-2 places) , the plan is to run in this race even with the 3lb penalty he picked for his Newmarket win.
There are only 14 entries and O’Brien has 5 of them, Balding, Burke and Appleby have two each. It’s a fair assumption that each will go with a single representative which means there could be a field of 5 or 6 and the 4/1 looks an each way bet to nothing.
Recommended Bet 1pt EW Morshdi 4/1 or bigger 1-2 places 2.35 Chester Thursday
Morshdi Good value at 4/1 for Dee Stakes.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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