From a betting point of view I think the card at Newbury is very difficult to assess.
Many horses from the top yards are running partially in preparation for Royal Ascot.
The Haggas team have runners in most of the races and all should be closely watched with half an eye on next month. Several warrant being backed on the day but the bets will be recommended to small stakes.
We adopted this policy on Friday making a nice profit and steering clear of a couple of favorites in handicaps, rightly taking the view that given the horses were on seasonal debut the short odds didn’t merit an investment.
The two highly rated unbeaten 3yo’s Extremely Zain and Lilt both Won – but the swings and fortunes that always persist in this game struck again when Weheedd was pulled up after leaving the stalls in the finale at York. Fingers crossed it’s not too serious.
Lets start Saturday with our biggest profit maker in 2025…
The decision to keep More Thunder in training as a 5yo entire this season is based on the belief that he is good enough to win Group 1 races and then have a career as a stallion.
Forced to start his season in the 1 mile Lockinge due to lack of opportunities at 7f this initial outing will serve the dual purpose of getting him race fit and seeing how his speed lasts out over the mile. He should stay as a winner over 10f as a 3yo – it is a question of how much speed he can produce in the final stages over the 1 mile trip at Group 1 level.
Surprise results in this race are not uncommon with Lead Artist and Audience winning the last two renewals at 17/2 and 22/1.
A win for More Thunder would be another surprise but there is no real reason to suggest he has reached the ceiling of his ability . His last run in the Prix De Le Foret was arguably his best . Drawn very wide off a slow pace he had no chance of winning but he ran a great race to finish 4th.
There are doubts about the market leaders. Damysus has to prove he has the speed to win a Lockinge, there are serious questions about the well being of the Appleby yard and Lion in Winter has never really looked a genuine Group 1 horse. The most solid option is possibly Olympios Zeus if he progresses from his run at Sandown.
With Field of Gold sidelined it looks a year when the top mile races for older horses look up for grabs.
As the season moves on Haggas will be represented at the top 7f and 8f tables by Lake Forest and More Thunder and that may yet prove to be a winning hand.
At around 8/1 or bigger a 0.25pt ew bet is advised .
Recommended bet 0.25 ew More Thunder (3 places)
In the opener Arabian Force tackles Kalpana on her seasonal debut . He has 10lb to find on ratings with the mare however he looked a horse to follow on his seasonal debut at Longchamp in a listed race that in all honesty he should have Won.
Although there are only 5 runners there looks certain to be a good pace set by Liberty Lane and West Wind Blows. In both the listed race in France and in the Great Voltigeur at York had there been more of an end to end gallop Arabian Force would have possibly won both.
Kalpana looks sure to have the major Autumn races as her main targets and with only 6 going to post I think Arabian Force has lots of scope to improve this season and with the favourite likely to be short of her best he is worth a small win bet at 11/2 to maximize his fitness advantage.
Recommended Bet 0.5 pt win Arabian Force 1-45 Newbury .
The 6f sprint handicap at 3.40 is very difficult to weigh up – The Haggas pair Wiltshire and Realign have leading chances – but come with question marks.
Wiltshire was super impressive when winning at Newcastle and has not been harshly treated by the handicapper but that was AW form – whilst Realign had a very easy pipe opener at Newmarket against Double Rush. James Doyle looked after him when it was clear taking on the Balding trained ‘Group horse in a handicap’ was pointless and would only damage his future chances this season.
If Realign is in the form of his last win at Haydock in the Autumn he is the best handicapped horse in the race.
The market favours Wiltshire but I think Realign will need to win this to get into the big Royal Ascot sprint handicaps and I just favour him.
Recommended Bets 0.5 pt win Realign 6/1 0.25pt win Wiltshire 9/2
The 8f handicap at 4.15 isn’t any easier to solve with Bullet Point turned out quickly after his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket 14 days ago . He ran very well but whether it was a lack of race fitness or being too high in the handicap that caused him to finish out of the frame we will only find out when he gets challenged for the lead in the final furlong on Saturday.
My gut feeling is that his mark of 104 means he is now too high in the weights – he has an each way chance but at 4/1 I won’t be backing him .
The other runners at Newbury are Fractional and Zennor Storm.
Fractional will be the outsider of six in the Childwickbury Stud Listed stakes at 2.00pm. This looked to have been the target for Earth Shot who is owned by the sponsors but she wasn’t entered and may well be focused on the Oaks with My Ophelia not ready for Epsom.
This looks an attempt to pick up some black type for Fractional and she is not a betting proposition.
Zennor Storm runs in the finale at 5.40 in another tricky 3yo handicap. She disappointed on her 3yo debut but needed the outing – I still think she will be seen to better effect over further so I will let her run unbacked and see how she progresses in this contest over 8f.
No Bet Recommended
At the other tracks a couple of the lower rated 3yo’s tackle Class 6 handicaps at Thirsk and Doncaster.
Caraway makes a quick reappearance after her unlucky defeat at Wolverhampton just over a week ago. There is no doubt she should be running here under a winners penalty and must have a great chance of getting a her head in front – with Darragh Keenan taking the ride at Thirsk in the 12f handicap at 3.00. This is tougher than Wolverhampton but at 10/3 she is worth a small bet to follow up the win of Lilt for the same owners on Friday
0.5pt win Bet Caraway 3.00 Thirsk.
Palace Artois moves into handicap company off a mark of just 59 in the 8f handicap at Doncaster. David Egan is an interesting jockey booking but the Ed Bethall top weight Masaban has proven form and the 8lb rise for his Redcar win allows him still to run in this Class 6 contest and he will take a lot of beating. Palace Artois is put in at 8/1 which reflects his chances.
Palace Artois 19.40 Doncaster No Bet Recommended
More Thunder returns to Newbury in the Lockinge on seasonal debut.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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