I think it is fair to say that the rain gods have for some reason taken a dislike with the Somerville Lodge team. I cannot recall, in recent years, a week leading up to race meetings where key runners require a weather forecast to be as predicted and for it to be accurate.
I remember waiting all summer in 2024 for Lake Forest to get the fast ground he desperately needed when stepped up to 7f for a Group 3 race at Newbury. where the then 3-year-old looked the nearest thing to a certainty you could find. The rain was forecast for after racing it duly arrived on the morning of the race and he was pulled out, but at least we got our stake returned.
He never got his fast ground in the UK that season. The next time he ran in November he finally got his conditions over a 7f plus trip, it was in Australia for the $10 million Golden Eagle, where he landed the massive prize at 18/1, beating Lazzat. Safe to say, I wasn’t on.
The weather dealt another blow to us last summer with Crown of Oaks.This time losing our Ante Post stakes. He was introduced in the early markets for a Class 4 handicap at Redcar in August off a mark of 85, opening at a juicy 5/2. The only danger to his chance was fast ground, but with rain forecast every day leading up to the race, it looked like a safe bet. Instead, the rain missed the track entirely, and he wasn’t declared.
Less than a fortnight later, he turned up on soft ground at Ascot and absolutely bolted up in a Class 3 off that exact same 85 mark, winning by six and a half lengths at 8/11.
The reason for this ‘agony aunt’ trip down memory lane? The entry of Eternal Force in the Class 2 handicap at Hamilton on Thursday. The 4yo will be our next 3pt bet on Thursday at Hamilton – subject to a correct weather forecast
Then on Saturday at Epsom the need for Good Ground for the afore mentioned Lake Forest and Derby hopeful Maltese Cross.
We backed Eternal Force for the Lincoln, but I became nervous in the week leading up to the race. Both William Haggas and Cieren Fallon expressed concerns that the ground would dry out too much, despite an initial good-to-soft forecast. This time the rain never arrived. In the race itself, it was glaringly clear that he needed a softer surface; his chance evaporated the moment the pace intensified and he failed to quicken. Fallon noticeably gave him an easy time once his winning chance had gone, finishing seventh, beaten just over three lengths.
He was subsequently entered to run at the aborted Haydock meeting, attracting significant market support despite drying conditions looking like a potential obstacle. Heavy rain was forecast this week north of the border, he looks to have prime opportunity to win back our Lincoln losses in Hamilton’s Class 2 handicap over the extended mile (3:51).
If the ground turns soft by post time, I expect the 4-year-old to significantly enhance Somerville Lodge’s remarkable record at the track. Since 2020, Haggas boasts a 50% strike rate (8-16) in handicaps at Hamilton. Going back to 2002 across all race types, that record stands at an enviable 14-34.
When Haggas sends horses north of the border, they do not travel for the scenery. His returns at Ayr and Musselburgh are similarly highly profitable.
All looked good on Monday with the forecast predicting 10-20mm of rain for both London and Glasgow. What happened Hamilton got 2mm and Epsom 20mm !
All is not lost there is heavy rain forecast for Hamilton all day on Wednesday and a lot less rain for Epsom after the deluge early Tuesday morning and Epsom drains especially quickly.
‘IF’ the forecast is right for Wednesday with further spells expected on Raceday the track should be riding soft which will be the first time Eternal Force will have his ideal track conditions and on a course that he has winning form. The entries include others that need soft ground but unlike the Haggas four year old they lack his scope for improvement. I expect him to be a 7lb better horse on soft ground and it will be a big disappointment if he doesn’t win.
The forecast in the London area ,after this week, looks hot and dry with the prospect of fast ground at Ascot ruling out an attempt at the Hunt Cup, this looks to be his No 1 target. His preparation for the Lincoln would have began in February and after Thursday I expect him to be given a break and aimed for the big Autumn handicaps over a mile or possibly 10f.
Recommended Bet Eternal Force 3.51 Hamilton Thursday TBC subject to ground conditions. Will confirm Thursday AM
Generally speaking the Somerville Lodge record at Epsom is among the worst recorded by the yard across all of the flat tracks that operate in the UK.
Pergola’s win in July 2025 was preceded by Bashkirova the only winner at the Derby meeting in 12 years in 2022.
Going back to 2002 the record at the Derby Meeting is just 3 from 51 with only 15 reaching the frame.
Across all 11 days of racing held at the track each year, the record since 2002 is 11 winners from just 111 runners. That equates to 1 winner every 2 years – It is clearly low on the list of courses targeted by the yard.
I have said though many times this year that a new broom has swept through Somerville Lodge in 2026 and the entry of Lake Forest in the Group 3 Tottenham Corner stakes, previously the John of Gaunt on Saturday cannot be ignored. Of course further significant rainfall and if there is any cut in the ground would be problem – but Lake Forest is working the house down on Newmarket Heath and it is no surprise that the yard is looking to pick this valuable prize up en route to Royal Ascot. The early price of 7/4 is short enough Ante Post. However it would look very generous if he is at the post at 1.30 on Saturday standing a good ground waiting to go into the stalls.
The weather forecast is hugely uncertain and we have to wait until at least Saturday morning before getting involved.
On good ground he can set up what may turn into a memorable day for Somerville Lodge and their many followers if Maltese Cross then brings home the Derby later on the card.
Refa Hag Tag 2026
Chrysalis Consortium 
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