Epsom Haggas Watch…

Once the rain came, all looked perfect for our 3pt bet on Eternal Force on Thursday. A good pace was assured, as the small field contained two confirmed front-runners. Then, from out of left field, both were withdrawn, leaving Eternal Force required to come from behind off a slow pace. Despite the very steady fractions, at no point in the race did I think he would be beaten—yet he was.

Although he was in front one stride past the post, he was a nose behind Diego Ventura on the line. I think Tom thought he was always going to win, but the winner has a touch of class (rated 104) and just found a yard too much speed on the dash to the line.

The ground on Friday is again the focus of attention, with the Epsom camber a massive influencing factor on Soft ground. However the weather forecasters were wide of the mark on Thursday and it now looks possible the racing could take place on Good to Soft going Friday and Good ground Saturday.

The yard has no runners there on Friday, and Tom Marquand goes to Doncaster to ride Thunder Call, who shoulders top weight of 9st 9lb in the 3yo handicap at 6:55.

The strike rate of Somerville Lodge 3yo’s in handicaps this year is below 10%. We had a small bet on Magic Box on Thursday in the 3yo fillies’ handicap at Wetherby, but she was never placed to challenge. Thunder Call on Friday is joined by York Tower and Poetry of Time on Saturday; it makes sense to watch without backing them, especially with all three making their handicap debuts. The yards poor strike rate in 3yo handicaps (3-35 in 2026 )will improve imminently—but possibly not until after Royal Ascot.

Onto Epsom, where the weather has denied us a serious investment on Lake Forest, who has been withdrawn from the opening race. This leaves just a couple of handicappers, Kinswoman and York Tower, to accompany Maltese Cross to the track on Saturday.

In the Betfred Epsom Dash at 3:15, Kinswoman has been put in as the 11/2 favourite. She has a great draw in stall 17, but we don’t really know if she has the blistering early pace to cope with Brazen Bolt (19) and Eclairage (14), or the ability to handle Soft ground. Even if she can track just behind the pace in the pocket on the stands’ rail, she must have a good chance. As a rule, however, these Epsom sprints are a lottery, and her price of 11/2—which I suspect will shorten—isn’t big enough to tempt us into backing her.

The other Epsom runner on Saturday is York Tower on his handicap debut in the 3yo handicap at 4:40. He is still a maiden, and Harry Davies takes the ride; 8st 8lb is tough for Marquand to make, and Tom will want to be at his strongest for Maltese Cross. York Tower is well-handicapped off a mark of 78, but his inexperience and the difficulties of dealing with Epsom on soft ground make it easy to pass him over for betting purposes.

The only other runner on Saturday sees Cieren Fallon ride Poetry of Time in the 7f handicap at 6:20 at Chepstow. The form lines with Seven Sisters through stablemate King of Earth will pretty much ensure the gelded son of Ulysses goes off at a short price. I wasn’t convinced by his win at Salisbury, and on a track that also presents issues for inexperienced horses, I will again watch without a financial interest.

Even with significant profits secured for the season, the feeling of being beaten a nose like Eternal Force on Thursday is hard to swallow. But it happened three times last season with More Thunder, Arabian Force (also at Hamilton), and Regalian—though the ‘nose’ verdict also went our way three times with Merchant, More Thunder, and Mamma Maria. Eternal Force was the first this season; I am sure he won’t be the last to win or lose by the narrowest of margins.

Good luck to the Somerville Lodge team and Maltese Cross in the Derby. His owner, George Waud, has in his own words been “an extraordinarily lucky owner,” and perhaps the fate that looks to have turned against him on Saturday will swing back in his favour.

NO RECOMMENDED BETS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY