Royal Ascot 2026.
The build-up to the meeting generated a greater sense of anticipation than usual. Bookmakers applied the ‘Haggas tax’ early, while Racing Post Pricewise tipster Tom Segal advised punters behind the paywall to snap up the 66/1 on offer for William Haggas to finish the week as top trainer.
However, both history and the master of Somerville Lodge himself suggested those expectations should be kept firmly in check. In over 35 years of training, the yard had sent out just 17 Royal Ascot winners, with their best single-week return standing at a modest two. Furthermore, the period between 2013 and 2019—before Addeybb captured the Wolferton—included five entirely blank years.
Backers who closely follow the stable are fully accustomed to poor value, and that 66/1 quote fell squarely into that category. For Haggas to take the title, Somerville Lodge would have to outperform Ballydoyle—rapidly closing in on 100 Royal Ascot winners.
Day 1: Tuesday
Expectations were simultaneously heightened and compressed by the reality that probably the yard’s best chance of success rested squarely on the opening race of the meeting. Stable star More Thunder was tasked with the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. His seasonal reappearance at Newbury, where he finished runner-up in the Lockinge—establishing what would become a frustratingly familiar theme for the season—proved he stayed the mile. He duly became the stable’s primary option for the Queen Anne over Lake Forest, who was re-routed to the six-furlong Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes on the final day.
As Tuesday approached, doubts intensified over market leader Notable Speech. Although he had won the Lockinge by two lengths, he had failed to fire in both previous visits to Ascot. Combined with the lukewarm form of Charlie Appleby’s yard—which also housed second-favourite Opera Ballo—support arrived for More Thunder, who was clipped into 4/1 third-choice.
Of his remaining rivals, there seemed little chance that Damysus or Zeus Olympios would reverse the Lockinge form, and Docklands had won a weaker running of the race in 2025. The other three runners appeared to be little more than social entries at 50/1 or bigger. The outsiders included Ten Bob Tony, a winner at Epsom whose best form was over seven furlongs on soft ground, and who had been routed by 17 lengths at Haydock by More Thunder’s stablemate, Lake Forest.
By the time the stalls opened, the weight of public money for More Thunder continued to pour in. He was sent off the 3/1 second-favourite behind a weak-in-the-market Notable Speech.
The race from the off went to plan. As expected, Opera Ballo ran too freely, setting searching fractionals through the first two furlongs. With Notable Speech sitting two lengths nearer the pace and more towards the centre, Tom Marquand switched More Thunder to track his main rival. This decision, although criticized by the hindsight experts, seemed the right move as More Thunder powered past the field and set his sights on the weakening Opera Ballo.
Then came another sting in the More Thunder Royal Ascot horror story, turning victory into a last-gasp defeat. In 2025, Marquand got his stick caught in his reins and failed to catch the 28/1 outsider Get It in the Wokingham by a short head. Here, the 50/1 outsider Ten Bob Tony, on ground too fast over a trip too far, ran the last two furlongs just over a length quicker than More Thunder to win by a half-length.
Although More Thunder ran with huge credit, the fact that he was the fourth Somerville Lodge horse to finish second in a Group 1 race this season—beaten by a social runner “there for a day out”—left a very ominous feeling for the rest of the week, with a lingering hint of what might have been had Lake Forest run.
In the King Charles III Stakes, First Instinct ran as well as could be expected but was well beaten on fast ground from a poor draw in a blistering five-furlong sprint.
Onto the final Day 1 highlight, and many people’s handicap banker of the week: Valiancy in the Copper Horse Stakes. Priced up on the day as low as 15/8 in a 16-runner field, the opening ante-post price of 4/1 had only been fair, and the drift to 9/4 was a case of the market settling down rather than weakness.
What was a concern was the interview William Haggas gave to Matt Chapman on ITV before the race. There is always a cringeworthy moment when Chapman approaches Haggas for a comment; the trainer never hides his sense of dread, but on this occasion, his comments put dread into the minds of Valiancy backers. Summing up, he noted “the ground was too fast,” “the draw too wide,” and that the horse was “not especially well-handicapped.” It added to the feeling that, after More Thunder, this was never going to be a winning day for Somerville Lodge. There was a moment when my “Cash Out” alarm sounded, only to be ignored.
Haggas was proved right on all three counts, especially regarding the horse’s ability to handle the fast ground. After struggling to go the early pace, Valiancy did well to finish sixth, rounding off a disappointing start to the week for the yard. Their misfortune, however, was minuscule compared to that of jockey James Doyle, who suffered a day he will struggle to erase from his memory.
Day 2: Wednesday
Despite the Day 1 setbacks, bookmakers continued to hammer the value out of the Somerville Lodge runners on Day 2. Four runners were sent to post: Scoville, the only Royal Hunt Cup entry to survive the cut, and three fillies in the Kensington Palace Stakes: Alobayyah, Rhapsody, and Seren Star.
Scoville was the overnight market leader at 9/1 for the Hunt Cup—an astonishingly short price for a horse that, in its last three runs, had shown no desire to be ridden with restraint. A 30-runner Hunt Cup from a low draw was possibly the worst-case scenario to bring about a change in his mentality. He was a huge drifter out to 16/1 on the day of the race, but only after a significant number of punters were sucked in by the bookies to believe it was a big Haggas “plot.”
In the race, Scoville, despite still refusing to settle, set off in front towards the far side and was followed by over 20 of the 30-runner field. None of them caught him. Unfortunately, six of those who stayed on the stands’ side did! It was a great effort, and if the Haggas team can get him to settle, he will win handicaps off his mark of 96.
Alobayyah was the next Haggas horse to strike fear into the bookmakers, offered at a opening ante-post price of 5/1 and cut to as short as 11/4 before the off. Although not quite such a artificial price as Scoville, it was still skinny. Before the start of the 2025 season, she had been muted as a potential Oaks filly and was nominated by Tom Marquand as his horse to follow for the season.
She was never right last year and merely went through the motions in two runs towards the end of the season. She has been entered in the John Smith’s Cup, and that talk last year of being an Oaks filly strongly suggested a mile on quick ground is on the short side. Some of the best tipsters around, including Huw Taylor, Kevin Blake, and Dave Young, were very keen on her chances based entirely on her seasonal return over the Ascot course and distance, which did offer plenty of encouragement.
She was an eyecatcher, staying on very well to finish third in a race won by her main market rival, in the Kensington Palace, Radiant Beauty.
Those words “Haggas plot job” were again to the fore, but my eye was also drawn to Rhapsody, another filly sired by Ghaiyyath and likely to improve on a fast surface. She had been disappointing as a three-year-old until winning impressively at York, following that up with a third in a Listed race in Italy—on both occasions, the soft surface was far from ideal.
This race was nominated as her first target for 2026 back in the spring, so her mark of 92 must have been considered fair. She was due to start off in the Snowdrop at Kempton in the spring, but the yard’s horses were slow to come to hand and she didn’t take up the option. Available at 18/1, she was worth a small each-way interest with six places on offer and a great draw in stall 25. Seren Star completed the trio of runners representing the stable.
The race thankfully saw a complete transformation of fortunes for Somerville Lodge, with the three runners, led by the winner Alobayyah with Seren Star and Rhapsody finishing close up to see the yard land first, third, and fourth.
With a winner finally in the bank, expectations were reignited for the rest of the week.
Thursday
Only a couple of runners headed to Berkshire on Thursday. Earth Shot went in search of Group 2 success in the Ribblesdale, and Morshdi was on the recovery trail following a disappointment at York.
Having been purchased by Wathnan Racing earlier in the month, Earth Shot had a dual mission: not only to win the race but also to provide James Doyle with his first winner at the meeting following an opening two days that resulted in a worst-case scenario.
The results from his first 11 rides read: 5th, 3rd, 10th, 2nd, 16th, 6th, 10th, 9th, 20th, 21st, and 10th. Ten of them were for his retainers, Wathnan Racing, and his best finish (second) was his only ride for an outside stable. Wathnan would also have expected more than the single winner they secured with Map of Stars, who was ridden by James McDonald as Doyle had chosen Haatem, who finished last in the Alfreton Stakes.
Earth Shot provided Doyle with the winner he desperately needed, despite a track position that was blamed on the involvement of a loose horse in the home straight. To my eyes, however, it was caused by the way the filly became unbalanced when rushed into position on the home bend. Her stamina and attitude enabled her to get her head in front on the line, winning a race she could easily have lost through no fault of her own. The Oaks runner-up, Link Legacy, failed to run to form, and Earth Shot justified the money paid by Wathnan to buy her from her breeders, Childwickbury Stud. Her ultimate stud value is likely to exceed the multi-million-guinea purchase fee.
Morshdi gave every indication in the preliminaries that whatever mental traumas beset him at York were still present, appearing edgy and sweating before the start. Once again, he tore off in front and was a beaten horse before the home turn.
The win of Earth Shot gave Somerville Lodge a second victory at the meeting, equalling their best-ever tally. With a host of fancied runners still to come, there was a growing expectation that, for the first time, they could return to Newmarket with three or more successes. The ominous feelings after the defeat of More Thunder were firmly in the past, replaced by a great sense of positivity for the final 48 hours.
Friday
The positivity was slightly tempered by the reality that the three Friday runners—Division, Opportunity, and Zooming—had been handed the additional burden of low draws. None suffered more than Opportunity, who drew stall 1 in the Duke of Edinburgh—a race where, even over 12 furlongs, a high draw is seen as essential and a low draw is a death knell.
From a betting perspective, although the ante-post wager on Opportunity still stood, it was unrealistic to have a further significant bet given the draw. As a consequence, James Doyle, Wathnan Racing’s retained rider, switched to ride George Boughey’s Hurwell Rock, and Opportunity was ridden by James McDonald. With respect to Doyle, that is a bit like Harry Kane coming on as a substitute for Ollie Watkins, but based on all known trends, stall 1 still seemed an insurmountable obstacle.
Division had drawn stall 3 in the Commonwealth Cup, which was also far from ideal, though there is a history of the high-draw bias on the straight course lessening on Days 4 and 5 due to the wear and tear near the stands’ side rails during the first three days. Zooming was drawn on the far side in the Sandringham, but she looked an unlikely stayer at a mile and her price of 25/1 reflected her chances.
The Commonwealth Cup went the way of the favourite, Venetian Sky, who won by a head from the 50/1 outsider Spicy Marg, with Division just a half-length back in third. There is a clear argument that Division, who was last away after being awkward out of the stalls and then had to be switched twice, was an unlucky loser. Poor starts have been a consistent factor preventing Division from winning more races, and Haggas and the team will no doubt be focusing heavily on the issue, because the horse possesses the talent to reach the top of the sprinting ladder.
After winning the Duke of Edinburgh on Opportunity, James McDonald was asked what he thought about drawing stall 1. He replied, “I thought it was an advantage.” The fact that the southern hemisphere rider did not have preconceptions about the track bias was undoubtedly a factor.
The race-winning move, however, was down to more than just the brilliant racecraft displayed by McDonald in the Ascot straight; it was the blistering pace injected into the race over the first three furlongs by Cieren Fallon on the James Owen-trained Ambiente Friendly. As a consequence, the field ran two-by-two, spread out over 20 lengths from first to last. The bunching that usually occurs as those drawn wide track across approaching the home turn was avoided.
Opportunity was able to relax and work his way into the race without pressure from three or four horses blocking his path into the straight. The brilliance of McDonald did the rest, and we collected on our ante-post wager.
As expected, Zooming failed to stay a stiff, fast-run mile and finished towards the rear in the Sandringham.
Saturday
The final day had always looked to offer the yard’s best chances for winners, featuring Saber Strike and Binhareer heading the markets in the Jersey and the Wokingham, supported by Santorini Star, Lake Forest, Almeraq, Realign, Bayaann, and Princling. Buoyed by having three winners already in the book, expectations were high that Somerville Lodge could finish the week with five victories.
It wasn’t to be, and the day somehow managed to create a contrasting feeling of both high and low achievements on the same afternoon.
The highlight was the first Group 1 victory of the season for the yard when Almeraq won a breathtaking finish to the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, thwarting the Japanese and Australian raiders in the final stride. Always considered a potential Group 1 horse, there had been a belief throughout his career that he would be at his best with cut in the ground; his price of 28/1 was purely down to that assumption. That may still be the case, and given those conditions, he could develop into a truly world-class champion, having already beaten the best bar Ka Ying Rising on fast ground.
Lake Forest gave himself too much to do. Another to be compromised by stall 1, he was slowly away and forced to switch when making his run. He made up three or four lengths on the four that finished ahead of him. Unlucky not to finish much closer to the principals, he must have every chance of winning a Group 1 contest over seven furlongs on fast ground.
The other six runners on the card were disappointing for a variety of reasons. Tom Marquand is an extremely honest and reflective jockey, and I am sure that, aside from Almeraq, he will be disappointed with his rides on Santorini Star, Binhareer, and Princling.
The chance taken with Bayaann in the Golden Gates didn’t pay off, with his inexperience proving a major factor in a race where the brilliance of James McDonald on the favourite, The Lost Boys, was a joy to watch.
The week’s banker, Saber Strike, went from travelling comfortably through the first five furlongs to completely emptying out as soon as the top two quickened a furlong from home. William Haggas’s suspicion that the horse is a pure sprinter seemed to be verified; it would not surprise me if a five-furlong trip proves to be his optimum at Group level.
Conclusion
Overall, it was a fantastic meeting for Somerville Lodge. A Group 1 success and three other winners made it their best-ever Royal Ascot.
From a punting perspective, it was less successful, but on reflection—with the possible exception of a small ante-post bet on Alobayyah—there is little I would have changed. If More Thunder had won the Queen Anne instead of being nabbed by the 50/1 outsider Ten Bob Tony, the week would have been highly profitable, whereas the losses on the final day meant we trudged away with just a minor profit.
Horses to Follow:
- Division (Sprinting prospect with top-tier talent if gate issues are resolved)
- Lake Forest (Unlucky in the Jubilee; primed for a 7f Group 1)
- Scoville (Handicapper to watch off 96 if he learns to settle)
- Almeraq any 6f race with cut in the ground.
- Realign Stewards Cup unless fast ground.
- Opportunity Group 3 or Listed races 12f plus.
- Binhareer Listed or Group 3 races over 6f with cut in the ground.
- Whatever James Macdonald rides at Royal Ascot 2027 !!
REFA
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment