Saturday turned out to be a day for the bookmakers which had been predictable. The defeat of easy Epsom Oaks winner Thundering On at the Curragh placing a big question mark over the quality of the staying fillies from this year’s classic generation.
The Haggas team will be very hopeful that Earth Shot has a real chance of winning the Irish Oaks.
For Somerville Lodge it was a day to quickly put a line through. It began with promise with Zennor Storm who as we suggested was a big drifter from 5/1 – 12/1 – that won’t be the case next time, as he ran an excellent race, first time after his gelding operation, finishing very well to be 4th.
From a betting point of view we got it right at Newcastle, not backing Wiltshire who tailed himself off, after completely missing the break, and Power Fizz.
Despite the surface being against hold up horses the 4yo gelding retained his place at the head of the market in the 6f Class 2 handicap .We suggested that the set up of the race would be against him and he ran moderately after missing the start.
The biggest disappointment of the day and indeed the entire season was Saber Strike. I don’t think I can remember a horse from Somerville Lodge with such a big reputation to disappoint in quite the way Saber Strike has on his last two runs.
He is bone idle and after another lackluster effort at York is going to need blinkers or dare I say gelding. The speed he shows on the gallops is not being transferred onto the course, to the point where he looks as though he needs a mile. Everything about the horse is now uncertain – accept for the fact, he is not a horse to back until he shows a better attitude, which must now be doubtful. One chance is enough and he has the look of a ‘morning glory’.
There was a happy ending to the afternoon, when apart from Saber Strike our only other bet Hoseki backed from 6/1 into 5/2 was a good winner. She will probably get put up to 85 for that win but will improve again for a step up to 12f and she can be followed with confidence.
Irish Derby day at the Curragh on Sunday and there are a couple of runners from Somerville Lodge that are worth a look.
In the last 10 years Somerville Lodge has only sent three horses without success to the Curragh for this fixture. The last winner dates back to Penitent in 2011.
The reappearance of one of last years most talked about Somerville Lodge inmates Crown of Oaks in the Group 3 International Stakes and a handicap debut for King of Earth in the Premier handicap provides added interest on Sunday, after Maltese Cross was taken out of the race to be given more time to recover from his 2nd place in the Epsom version.
The last time we saw Crown of Oaks was to witness his remarkable success at Ascot in the Balmoral Handicap over 8f. On ground that was plenty quick enough he was in stall 23 of 23 and that looked a big disadvantage as on the day those drawn low towards the far side, looked to be significantly favoured.
Marquand decided to try to make all in an attempt to overcome the track position. Unbelievable all the other jockeys tracked across to follow Crown of Oaks negating the far side. It allowed Marquand to set his own fractions and then despite hanging out to the centre of the track was able to win without being headed.
The poor judgement of the other jockey’s but also his stamina enabled him to win the Balmoral off a mark of 99 and he has been upped to 104 for the start of his 4yo career. That mark provides an insight into the task he faces running in Group company over 10f on Sunday for the first time against Purview rated 118 and Hotashell 116.
That was the sort of level Crown of Oaks was expected to reach as a 3yo and the bookmakers never gave his followers any sort of value, before his Ascot win, he was sent off 8/11, 1/3, Evs, 8/11, and 10/11 (in a 21 runner handicap at the Curragh). He will be a decent price on Sunday and it will be fascinating to see how he progresses as a 4yo in group company. Any rain falling at the Curragh on Saturday and Sunday will boost his prospects.
King of Earth is another 3yo that has a big reputation and is considered well handicapped off a mark of 85 that would enable him to qualify to run in lower grades than this Class 2 Premier Handicap over 9f at 17.15. The Irish big guns of Aiden and Joseph O’Brien plus Ger Lyons have taken aim at the race with improving 3yo’s and with a slight doubt about his stamina, this looks a tough task, and I will watch the racing on Sunday without a financial interest.
Which means I will also let Windbreaker run unbacked in the extended Class 5 handicap the 2.37 at Wolverhampton. He has still to show any real signs of improvement and was dropped a 1lb for his first run in handicap company at Lingfield last time out.
Sunday No Bets Recommended
Crown of Oaks seasonal debut in Group 3 company at the Curragh
Chrysalis Consortium 
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