The stable form is still in a slump with Al Maslool a silly price at odds on to win on his 7th start, a well beaten 3rd at Nottingham on Thursday. He will be off to the Sales in a week’s time.
A team of seven from Somerville Lodge is sent to post on Saturday with six at the five meetings taking place in the UK and Elmonjed heading to Deauville to run in the Group 3 6f Sprint at 3.51 in the hands of Mikel Barcelona.
The Deauville flat 6f straight course is perfect for Elmonjed who runs there instead of next weekends July Cup. As seems inevitable in France the Haggas horse is drawn on a wing in stall 8. He should win but I will watch as a guide to the stables current well being.
One horse that was a surprising entry in the Old Newton Cup, rearranged from Haydock to Newmarket was the Ante-Post Ebor Handicap favourite Klassleader who has been confirmed as a runner at the overnight stage.
The plan after he won at York in May was, because of his guaranteed place and good handicap mark, to head straight to York without another run.
Already as short as 7/1 for the Ebor, the bookmakers, even in Saturday’s ultra competitive handicap, took zero risk and he has never been bigger than 2/1.
Readers earlier this week will know my reservations that some of the horses are running below par at the moment and the decision not to bet over the weekend. Klassleader is near the top of my list of horses to follow this season and I have backed him at 10/1 Ante Post for the Ebor.
The 7/4 on Saturday is short but with only 11 rivals declared I only see it reducing, even allowing for the relatively poor form of the yard since Ascot.
If the horse wins well, he will get a big hike up the weights and his Ebor chances reduced, but that is secondary consideration to his long term overall career on or possibly off the course. The 500,00 first prize for the York race is a big incentive but his value if he was sold to race in Hong Kong or Australia would exceed that figure and increased further.
If Haggas and Klassleader win the Old Newton Cup and he wins comfortably, his rating will be into the low-mid 100s. At that exact moment, he reaches peak marketability.
While the Ebor is a huge target, a 4yo entire with his profile is effectively a “ready-to-go” elite prospect for an Australian syndicator aiming at the spring carnival, or a wealthy Hong Kong owner aiming at the upper tiers of Sha Tin.
The pure economic value of selling him abroad right now vastly outweighs the financial gamble of keeping him for a single, even though well-handicapped, shot at the Ebor.
One horse that is about to be sold, (next Thursday), is the very disappointing Sea Force who has what is likely to be his last run for the yard in Sandown‘s 8f, 120,000 Guaranteed Class 2 handicap at 2.25.
He entered the season as one of a group of 4yo 8f-10f handicappers, kept in training at Somerville Lodge considered well treated off marks between 95-100. All 4 have been nothing more than a bookmakers benefit.
If at the start of the season had someone said that Eternal Force, High Degree, Sea Force and First Principle would be winless on the Turf after a total of 13 races it would have been considered unthinkable.
Probably the most disappointing of all has been Sea Force and although the fast ground will suit him he cannot be trusted to run his race and the 12/1 on offer is not generous.
Two horses go to Beverley. In the 2yo maiden at 2.52, Under Arrest will have to improve considerably from his debut run to be involved in the class 3 contest. Whilst on the other hand Al Aasy will need to run way below form not to win the Listed race at 4.02 where the race conditions are greatly in his favour – he will be odds on.
The first runner of the day is Desert Treasure in the 5f sprint that opens the Newmarket card at 1.30. She has grown minimally from 2 to 3 and has a lot to do to beat the improving Quantum Power on whom Jack Callan can claim 3lb.
Finally the highly disappointing Palace Artois takes his chance in a Class 6 handicap the 8.30 at Nottingham. The hope is he can win and boost his sales price at the Tattersalls July Sales next week. His previous runs provide very little encouragement that will be the case even in this low grade contest.
As expected no bets on Saturday but I wouldn’t lay Klassleader or back against him in the Old Newton Cup.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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