The brilliant victory of Maltese Cross in the Voltigeur on Day 1 at York has done much to clear away the gloom that has largely hung over Somerville Lodge for much of the summer.
There seems little doubt that the hot dry conditions are the reason. A good friend pointed out that with his runners in Ireland A O’Brien’s record in his home country since 01 July is 16% from 101 runners compared to 25% from 118 in 2025.
A couple of the main sufferers of the summer in Somerville Lodge this year have been Klassleader who runs in the Ebor on Saturday and Eternal Force who runs in the handicap at 3.00pm on Thursday.
He is one of five Haggas has out at York on Thursday, including two in the Kevin Sinfield Grand Finale Handicap. Let’s start with the heavily supported Bullet Point, who sets out to win the newly named handicap off a mark of 101 which is just 1lb higher than when he landed a monster gamble at 15/8 in the race last year from the ideal draw in Stall 3. He has drawn Stall 10 this year.
This year he was introduced at around 12/1 in the opening shows—a price that didn’t last long before he was cut to 11/2 joint-favourite.
I am not fully convinced by the strength of Bullet Point’s second in the Shergar Cup, and he has had a tough time since last year’s victory. First, he was turned out just four days later in the Strensall Stakes prior to going into quarantine ahead of a trip to Australia. He was well beaten and, despite heavy support, never looked likely to feature.
The Australian venture did not go to plan following a series of delays and setbacks. In what turned out to be his sole outing—the $500,000 Five Diamonds—he missed the break, could never get into a challenging position, and eventually finished 10th of the 11 runners.
He hasn’t looked the same horse this season. Although his Ascot run was a step in the right direction, he was readily outpointed by Crown Board in a race where the pacesetters had an easy time up front and were never threatened by the hold-up horses behind.
If the forecast 18mm of rain arrives before the off, Eternal Force would likely be the stable’s No 1 and is worth a bet. The booking of Dylan Browne McMonagle for the 4yo is highly significant, and if the ground turns soft, this horse could be the subject of a hefty gamble. He is drawn wider in stall 12; soft ground is essential, and if conditions are only good to soft, he is an unlikely winner.
His latest run over 10f on the AW looked like little more than a fitness exercise, and his mark of 98 remains workable. It may be that genuine soft autumn ground is required for him to return to the winner’s enclosure. The forecast suggests the ground will be soft.
Bet: Eternal Force 3.00 York – I have had a small each way 0.5pt bet 1-6 places at 12/1 and if the ground is confirmed as soft will double that to 1pt ew.
In the Yorkshire Oaks, at 3.35 Earth Shot will be a big price as she attempts to rebuild her reputation following a dismal run in the Irish Oaks. Her chance that afternoon looked minimal once the ground raced on the fast side of good. Although connections got away with those conditions at Ascot, she has always been thought to need cut to be at her best.
If the rain arrives she will run much better than she did at the Curragh, but this race represents another step up in class and is arguably the strongest running of the contest this decade. She will do well to hit the frame.
No Bets
In the Galtres Stakes at 4.20, Rhapsody has a favorable draw in stall 7. She is unproven beyond 10f, but her dam won on heavy ground over 12f. Being by Ghaiyyath, both the step up in trip and the softer conditions look likely to trigger improvement. She has looked an improving filly in defeat this season, finishing third at Ascot over 8f before running second in a Listed race over 10f at the Curragh. The soft ground shouldn’t pose a problem.
Given the speed she has shown, strong pedigree evidence that this trip will suit, and a solid draw, she is worth an each-way selection at odds of 7/1 with four places available.
Bet 0.5pt ew Rhapsody 6/1 or bigger 1-4 places 4.20 York
In the finale at 17.20, Albaydaa drops back to handicap company after disappointing when chasing Black Type at Carlisle last time out.
She was sent off the 2/1 market leader despite needing to improve 10lb to challenge several fillies with proven Listed form. It proved too much for her and, like many from the yard since Royal Ascot, her effort was notably flat when put under pressure at the key stage.
Softer ground may well help, but like Bullet Point and Eternal Force, she is drawn bang in the middle of a 21-runner field—a track position that frequently leads to traffic trouble.
No Bets
Away from York on the Newmarket July course, Venetian Lion sets out to follow up an impressive Nottingham win in the 8f Class 5 handicap at 3.10. The St Mark’s Basilica gelding should arguably be on a hat-trick, having gained compensation at Nottingham after a luckless handicap debut at Southwell.
On Thursday, he carries a 7lb higher mark of 72, which still looks workable. He will be short—I suspect around 13/8—and with no significant rain forecast for Newmarket, I cannot back him on fast ground at those odds.
Throughout the summer, horses that normally handle fast ground have struggled coming through the dip on the July course and failed to run to form. At the meeting last weekend, seven well-backed, short-priced market leaders failed to handle the fast surface. Betting on the track has been a minefield all summer.
No Bets
Cieren Fallon heads north to the Newcastle AW track to ride the progressive filly Queens Hame in the Fillies’ Restricted Novice at 6.54. This looks like a penalty kick with only the 125/1 course winner Star of Camalla to beat. Queens Hame will be heavily odds-on.
No Bets
Eternal Force big chance at York Day 2 if forecast Soft ground arrives.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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