The weather next week looks relatively dry and a good ground 4 day St Leger meeting at Doncaster looks a safe assumption.
The horses are running better than at anytime this season with another three winners at York on Sunday. Even with this excellent form in mind one horse stands out for the week ahead.
I had no hesitation in backing Silver Lake at the early Ante Post price of 9/4 in the 12f fillies handicap at Doncaster on Friday, to win her 4th handicap in a row.
We have backed the Night of Thunder filly on each of her 3 wins. She has risen from a mark of 75 to 92 but on breeding that improvement was always likely as she stepped up in trip. Her victory at York was achieved after she found all sorts of trouble but her stamina got her out of the mire and she got up in the final strides to win by a head.
The step up to 12f, on Friday, will suit her and the 6lb rise looks manageable. She is related to a family of fillies that achieved their highest ratings over 12f. The race was won last year by Cape Flora who defied a 9lb rise after winning the same York race in 2025.
A big factor in her chance is the fact she is sticking to handicap company rather than seeking black type, which will be far more valuable to her long term career in the paddocks. She cost 425,000 Guineas as a yearling and her stud value, although largely secure with her handicap successes will need the addition of black type to get top dollar.
There is plenty time of to get the required levels after Doncaster but there is always an element of risk involved, by waiting for another race, as she looks certain to reach listed level on her York performance.
The 9/4 early price factors in the current large number of entries but after Wednesday’s final declarations there is every indication that will start to be reduced. At Goodwood she was backed from 3/1 to 4/5 and at York 3/1 – 11/10. I expect a similar SP on Friday. Silver Lake is the only filly among the entries with winning form at Class 2 level.
Recommended Bet 3pt win Silver Lake 15.35 Doncaster 9/4 Bet365
A quick comment on the Arc trials at Longchamp on Sunday. The outcome of the Prix Vermielle dented the chances of Kalpana as her Yorkshire Oaks form was let down by Sparun Nua who had every chance but was well beaten. Friendly Soul hung onto victory but she had the perfect trip and although just lasting home looked to have stamina limitations.
The form of the Grand Prix de Paris win by Maltese Cross was then given a huge boost when in the Prix Neil Varandir and Alam the beaten horses easily beat Benvenuto Cellini who must now be a very doubtful runner.
I have doubted the value of the form of last years Arc and Daryz only did what was expected when he beat Bay City Roller on ground that was far to quick for the George Scott star. I have backed Maltese Cross again after the Longchamp trials ,where on good ground and a draw lower than 8 only Daryz looks a danger.
On Monday there is a single runner Evening Fades in 7.30 at Wolverhampton. She continues her attempt to gain a first win. So far her efforts have been unsuccessful and once again she looks booked for a place at best.
No Bet Recommended
Tuesday features the appearance of more 2yo’s in the yard, many well bred, but a majority better for the race. . The success on Thursday of Sharadd at Haydock on debut is likely to be the exception rather than the rule. We backed Sunday’s winner Mezzo Forte but will not get carried away with the juveniles this month as most will need time to develop to be at their best as 3yo’s.
The strike rate record of 2yo’s for the yard in September over the last 5 years is only 15% that goes down to 6% for debutants (4 from 64).
Realistically backing the 2yo’s is best based on horses that have racecourse experience and are 1,2,3 in the market. That increases the strike rate to over 25% but selectivity rather than blanket coverage is still the best policy.
At Leicester on Tuesday From Afar in the 13.12 and Inkjet in the 13.42 are best watched on debut.
In the 2.05 at Goodwood, Al Qayed runs for the second time after running with promise in a three horse affair at Newmarket in a race where the first two are very highly regarded. He is a son of Baaeed by an unraced Frankel mare from a family that does best over 12f. This suggests he is one of many Haggas horses that will be better at 3 and is not one to back on Tuesday.
Finally, Gaspacho a rare dual 2yo winner for Somerville Lodge in 2025, has a belated first run as a 3yo in the 4.12 at Leicester. The overall record this season of the yard with horses running off a break strongly leans towards them needing the run and she is also not recommended as a bet.
No Bet Recommended.
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