Maltese Cross – Assessing His Arc Chance
The realistic chance that Maltese Cross has of winning this year’s Arc de Triomphe will not be fully known until after the draw is revealed on Thursday evening, by which time the amount of rainfall expected to hit the track next week should also be clearer.
The race has been top of my list of Group 1 races to solve ever since I was fortunate enough, on my first visit to Longchamp in October 1986, to watch what is still considered to be one of, if not the best, runnings of the race. The breathtaking turn of foot produced by Dancing Brave, coming from last to first, remains clear in the memory. It was considered, both before and after the race, to be one of the highest-quality Arcs in history.
What I am certain about regarding the 2026 race is that Maltese Cross will have nothing in the class of Dancing Brave to overcome.
In the 40 subsequent runnings, only the great Sea The Stars in 2009 has matched that performance, with the wins of Peintre Celebre in 1997 and Montjeu in 1999 coming close.
Other more recent winners – Treve in 2013 and 2014, Golden Horn in 2015, Enable in 2017 and 2018, and most recently Ace Impact in 2023 – would all probably be too good for Maltese Cross.
The win of Enable in 2018 is the race where the agony matched the ecstasy of 1986. Sea Of Class, prior to this year, is the only Haggas-trained runner to have had a realistic chance of winning the Arc. Drawn in stall 15, she was asked to repeat the performance of Dancing Brave by coming from last to first, failing only by a nose to reel in the Gosden-trained filly, who was sent off the even-money favourite.
I was one of many who supported Sea Of Class at 9/2, and she undoubtedly remains one of the race’s unluckiest losers.
Enable was sent off at evens that afternoon. This year’s market leader, Daryz, is 13/8, which looks far too short given the level of performance he brings to the race. That price ignores the reality that no colt has retained the Arc de Triomphe in the modern era, largely because the very best are sent to stud at the end of their three-year-old careers.
A bigger question mark over Daryz is based on his form. His win last season at 16/1 is the lowest-rated (127)performance by an Arc winner in the past 40 years, and despite the noise surrounding him, he has done nothing to suggest that he has improved as a four-year-old.
The narrow runner-up, Minnie Hauk, has gone backwards. Her one really good performance came in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, when she overturned the form with Daryz; however, both were obliterated by Ombudsman under a hands-and-heels ride.
Daryz has had one run since, which proved little, beating Bay City Roller in a slowly run, small-field race on firm ground. Of greater significance is the overall form of last year’s Arc field this season, which only serves to justify the low rating awarded to the race.
Only Hotazhell, who finished 10th, and Aventure, who was 11th, have progressed significantly, both having dropped back to 10 furlongs. Some would argue that Giavellotto, who finished fourth, and Kalpana, seventh, have also done so, but a closer examination of the linked form reveals that they have largely only replicated their Arc performances.
There is a case for saying that Kalpana’s win in the King George is evidence of improvement, but Calandagan was completely out of sorts at Ascot, while the proximity of Benvenuti Cellini also downgrades the performance. That was reinforced by Kalpana’s narrow and fortunate win in the Yorkshire Oaks and the subsequent form of the O’Brien-trained Irish Derby winner. She was beaten fair and square by Giavellotto in the Hardwicke.
Third-placed Sosie has disappointed in both starts this year. Fifth-placed Japanese raider Byzantine Dream has been nearer last than first in two subsequent outings. Sixth-placed Arrow Dream has not won this season and was beaten by Al Aasy in a Group 2 at Deauville on his latest start.
From the Maltese Cross perspective, together with the 2024 race won by Bluestocking, which was also rated among the poorest runnings of the race, it is clear that a performance to a rating of 130 will probably be enough.
That mark would have won 14 of the last 40 runnings, including four of the past five.
He will go into the race rated 124, and there is every reason to suggest that a further 6lb of improvement is well within his capacity. He has already climbed from a mark of 109 when winning the Lingfield Derby Trial and, in his latest outings, has demonstrated a faster level of speed, considerable tenacity and, essentially, a high level of track craft.
He has always possessed a huge determination to win and has now added a touch of class.
On ground that is not too soft, and with a draw between 1 and 10, he looks capable of becoming the first horse since Ace Impact in 2023 to win the Arc with a 130+ rating.
Verdict: Already advised 1pt each-way at 10/1 on Maltese Cross for the Arc de Triomphe, subject to good to soft or faster ground and a draw between 1 and 10. A further 2pt win will be added.
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