Whether its 2yo maidens or nurseries, 3yo novice stakes or handicaps and even the older horses the Somerville Lodge record at Newcastle in the Autumn months, produces a 30-40% strike rate with fancied runners, which means anything 1-2-3 in the market merits serious consideration. I have based all the stats over a 10 year period 2017-2026 in the months of September, October and November.
The first runner to come under the microscope on Thursday evening is the filly Not My Type who heads to post for the Class 4, 5f Nursery at 6.00pm. A field of 7 line up but it looks a match between Not My Type and the Boughey filly Havana Lightning who with Billy Loughnane in the saddle will likely head the market.
Over the past 10 seasons Haggas has sent 10 2yos in the Autumn to the track to contest Nursery Handicaps, with a return of 3 winners, 3 runner up spots 1 third place and 3 unplaced.
Further analysis reveals that it is the better rated 2yo’s that are more likely to win. All 3 winners have been rated above 70 with the 4 rated below 60 all defeated. 2 of the 3 winners were in 5f contests. The only loser over the minimum trip was Rare Jewel in 2023 who was returned the 2/1 market leader.
It proved to be her last race; the Timeform commentary ‘was went off favourite switched to a nursery but must’ve been amiss to shape as she did; held up, shaken up 2f out, no response and rider quickly gave up.‘
The two other winners over the minimum trip were Deputise and Reassure
Deputise a gelding by Kodiac ran off a mark of 85 having already won twice as a juvenile and had looked likely to be suited by 6f he was backed into odds on and won comfortably.
Reassure an Oasis Dream filly came into the race off the back of a disappointing run in a heavily contested York Nursery. She had won on the AW and narrowly failed to carry her penalty at Beverley where she was only beaten by a filly that on her next outing secured Black Type in the Listed Bosra Sham stakes at Newmarket.
The other Somerville horses to run in Newcastle Nursery’s at Class 5 and 4 were Seductive who was tried over a 1m but didn’t stay in what turned out to be her last race. Conservatoire who ran on the back of two previous nursery wins off a career high mark of 82 a mark which proved beyond her, despite running well to finish 2nd. The Kingman filly Good Gracious won a Class 5 Nursery over 7f off a mark of 74 and went onto to be a Black Type Listed grade filly as a 3yo before retiring to stud.
The other 4 all ran in Class 6 Nursery’s rated below 60 after having had 3 or more very disappointing runs in Novices and Maidens prior to the debuts in handicap company.
Not My Type closely matches the profile of the previous 5f nursery winners. Already a winner over straight tracks with uphill finishes which makes Newcastle look ideal based on their running style. Also dropped to a Class 4 Nursery after contesting a listed race and or Class 2,3 company.
She is the first foal out of Arousing to appear on the track and is highly valuable to her owner/breeders Lael Stables as her grand dame is Enticing who produced One Master the multiple Group 1 winning colt also trained by Haggas.
Arousing was sired by Kodiac who also sired Deputise who won a 5f Nursery at the track for Haggas in November 2018.
Both Arousing and her full sister Craved also trained by Haggas won on the AW ( Craved at Newcastle) and there is every reason to believe that Not My Type will relish and possibly improve on the surface.
On current form she should readily beat six of her seven rivals – drawn 6of 7 towards the favored stands rail – the stalls are positioned on the inside for this race – she will be up with the pace and should hold her position against the rail and outstay the opposition. The one horse that could be well handicapped enough to beat her is the Billy Loughnane ridden Havana Lightning and I will probably play the forecast as insurance. The market has opened 11/4 Not My Type 3/1 Havana Lightning.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Not My Type 6.00pm Newcastle.
The other horse that travels north to Gosforth Park is Vanilla Skies another filly from Lael Stables who runs in the 6f fillies handicap at 7.00pm.
By Pinatubo out of Cloud Line her win on debut was a yet another success for the family line that dates back to her grand dame Superstar Leo who won the Flying Childers for Somerville Lodge in the year 2000 and has been responsible for numerous winners for Lael Stables and Haggas ever since.
She is a half sister to Showering who proved best at 6f and this drop in trip from 7f looks a positive move. Her handicap mark leaves very little scope for improvement. As is the case for Not My Type the families ability to improve on the AW tracks will need to apply to her. The stats are again very positive Haggas trained 3yo’s in handicaps at Newcastle in the Autumn sent off 1,2,3 in the market over the past ten seasons are 8-18. Although there is a caveat that in races over 6f it’s 0-4.
She is a filly that doesn’t look straight forward and hopefully Not My Type will have provided Ceiren Fallon with a winner on the card before he jets off to ride Lake Forest in the Grade 1 Coolmore mile at Keeneland on Saturday night 22.48 our time. The ground should be fast and the 5yo has a great chance of bagging the half a million pound first prize.
Back to Vanilla Skies if she was on offer at 5/1 or more I might be tempted to have a small each way but unsurprisingly given the Haggas record at the course she is only 11/4.
Lake Forest and Ceiren Fallon head to Kentucky on Saturday night.
Leave a comment