There is little doubt that Venetian Lion would have won easily on Friday but got trapped on the far rail for most of the final 3 furlongs and when he finally got a clear run it was all too late. He is very well handicapped and it will be interesting to see if he goes through the sales ring at Tattersalls as planned at the end of the month.
I have always found that an unlucky loss is rarely recovered by the next bet and that was the case on Friday when Guesstimate backed from 11/2 into 3/1 at Newcastle was well positioned approaching the final 3f but appeared to suffer an injury and was eased right down.
Ascot and Southwell Update
There has been little movement in the prices of the Haggas team at Ascot since the markets were reformed after the final declarations and the draw on Thursday.
The overnight market moves seem to be aligned with the expectation the runners in the races on the straight course will head to the stands rail, even though they are positioned on the far side. Scoville (drawn 23 of 23) is now 4/1 market leader in the Balmoral. Crown of Oaks is a non runner on the basis that the ground is too fast.
The other races on the straight course have followed this pattern. In the 2yo contest that opens the card at 12.55 Arapaho Gold drawn (10) 4/1 – 11/4 has replaced Inner City Blues drawn (2) 5/2-7/2, at the head of the market. There is also strong support for Night in Vegas.
In the Champion Sprint at 1.30 Almeraq (8) has drifted to 11/8 with support for Division (12) 17/2 from 12/1.
In the Queen Elizabeth over the straight mile – the big move is for Gstaad from Stall (11) 10/3 into 11/4. The drifter has been Rayif (1)
Other Somerville Lodge movers
1.30 Opportunity 14/1 into 10/1
2.40 Lilt now 8/1- now 10/1 across the board
3.20 More Thunder 8/1 – 9/1
4.35 Scoville 5/1-7/2
It is not surprising that the Haggas team of 2026 is the strongest yet to figure at Ascot on Champions Day.
From the start of the season it had been apparent there was a greater emphasis placed by the team on achieving success on the major race days highlighted by having rare runners in both the 2,000 Guineas and Epsom Derby
On Champions Day this decade there have been 4 winners from 35 runners with just 4 others making the frame. This year 10 head to Ascot, his largest squad to date, and as has been the case during the rest of the season at the big meetings, their is every chance they will provide Haggas with his most successful Champions Day.
Of the 10 Almeraq in the Champions Sprint and Scoville, given a plum draw of Stall 23 in the Balmoral are likely to go off as market leaders and Opportunity in the Stayers, More Thunder in the Mile and Lilt in the Fillies and Mares will go to post with high expectations that they can reach the frame.
The best value at double figure odds is Opportunity who is pitched into Group 1 company for the first time in the Champion Stayers at 1.50. Wathnan Racing also run Gregory the choice of James Doyle but he got off Opportunity when the 4yo won at Royal Ascot and I think there is every chance he has again made the same mistake.
To my eyes the form of his 3rd in the Ebor giving 5lb to the winner Daiquiri Bay is the most solid in the race and he is ideally drawn in Stall 7 to get a great position behind the front running Quickthorn.
The question is will the step up in trip to 16f equate to an increase in performance levels? Haggas has always been confident that it is well within his range – he will be only the 5th runner from Somerville Lodge to attempt to win the race. Of the other 4 I think it is fair too say that Pablo Escobar and Monica Sheriff who were sent off at 33/1 and 80/1 were more social runners. Hamish the last to try and win the race finished 4th and didn’t stay on his only attempt at 2m.
The closest Haggas has come to winning the contest is with the stable legend Harris Tweed who was beaten a nose collared right on the line by the 20/1 Irish raider Royal Diamond in a pulsating finish.
I am surprised that 14/1 is still available after the withdrawal of Ante post market leader Scandinavia . The new favourite Caballo Del Mar was involved in a very hard race with the Ascot Gold Cup winner at Longchamp and the fact that the ultra tough O’Brien horse is not deemed to have recovered sufficiently also poses a big question mark over George Scott’s star stayer.
Gregory was mighty impressive at Newmarket but along with Queenstown I don’t think they could have gone as close as Opportunity did in the Ebor.
A 3yo has not won the race since 2009 which counts out Highwayman and Amelia Earhart and Amiloc is a rogue.
On the revised terms there is no reason why Daiquiri Bay 10/1 is shorter in the market than Opportunity 14/1 which is too big and will shorten. I can see the race developing into a duel between the Wathnan pair with Opportunity having too much speed for Gregory, the Gosden representative.
Gregory and Highwayman have been the subject of significant support both vying for the position at the head of the market with Highwayman now as short as 5/2 Caballo Del Mar is a huge drifter 5/1 from 2/1. Opportunity is strong generally 10/1 from 14/1.
Already Advised Punting Strategy 10pts ew 14/1 Opportunity 1.30 Ascot (1-3 places)
In the Fillies and Mares Group 1 at 2.40 Kalpana will be at a short price to complete a hat trick despite running poorly in the Arc. That was the same in 2025 and two weeks later she won this race with ease. As my followers will know I didn’t rate the form of her wins this year in the King George or the Yorkshire Oaks and she looks vulnerable to a lightly raced improving filly. The fact she finished only a nose ahead of the well below par Maltese Cross at Longchamp leaves a question mark about whether she can repeat her 2025 win. She has also drawn the coffin box stall 1 over the 12f course at Ascot, both reasons that mean her price of 6/4 is too short.
Somerville Lodge are quietly confident that the lightly raced improving filly is Lilt. The 3yo has always been highly regarded but has been slow to grasp the fundamentals of racing when it comes to acceleration at the business end of her races. She has tended to climb rather than spring forward which has caused her to lose vital momentum.
The money has come for her in the Ante-Post market and like Opportunity she is worth an each way interest.
The market has seen a move for the Ribblesdale runner up Johanna Walsh. She was beaten by the Haggas trained Earth Shot. I get the impression that most at Somerville Lodge feel that Lilt if she stays the 12f is the better of the two high class fillies. She has drifted from 8/1 to 10/1 and with the doubt about Kalpana being able to be at her best after a tough season Lilt is the value.
Already Advised Punting Strategy 10pts ew Lilt 8/1 (1-3 places)
The victory of Crown of Oaks in the 2025 Balmoral was incredible not because he won but for the fact that 21 top class jockey’s choose to track to the stands rail and follow Tom Marquand even though all afternoon it had looked to be the slowest part of the track . The decision to make the running was a last minute throw of the dice made in the forlorn hope that it might overcome the apparent track bias that afternoon to be positioned on the far rail.
I remember post race Haggas stated – I watched in ‘utter disbelief’ as the race unfolded. It was still a great effort from Crown of Oaks but now Scoville has got into this years race last years winner will be second string to the reinvented 4yo who after his easy Doncaster win is very well handicapped off a mark of 99. This year the expectation is that the draw will favour high numbers and Scoville has been allocated a gate position in stall 23 of the 24 runner field.
His mark of 99 up just 4lb from his ridiculously easy Class 2 handicap win at Doncaster is not close to his ceiling. As a 3yo he was sent off at odds on to win a Group 2 contest in France.
After the draw he is generally 5/1 joint favourite with the beaten Cambridgeshire favourite Gavriel trained by the Gosdens. He looked like a 10f horse at Newmarket and with the returning Crown of Oaks unlikely to get the soft ground he needs ( now a non-runner) I anticipate Scoville being sent off at around 3/1.
Bullet Point also takes his chance but he has not looked himself since his trip to Australia in the early months of the year.
The draw of 23 looks likely to ensure Scoville will go off market leader ahead of Gavriel well drawn in 18 and the Ascot standing dish Hickory (22) backed from 14/1 into 7/1. Providing Tom Marquand doesn’t get into the trouble he got at Haydock today he is in a different league to Hickory who runs off the same mark.
Punting Strategy: 25pts ew 5/1 (1-5 Places) Scoville 4.35 Ascot
More Thunder runs possibly his last race in the 1m Championship following a career that has failed so far to deliver the Group 1 success that his talent deserves.
Being campaigned over 10f as a 3yo before moving to Haggas, didn’t prevent his new trainer from realising he had speed to burn and he immediately began his career out of Somerville Lodge with 2 handicap wins over 6f. He recorded a 3rd in the Bunbury Cup over 7f after being denied a 6f handicap hat trick in the Wokingham by a short head when his jockey’s whip was caught up in his reins.
He was a Group winner in waiting and duly delivered in the Group 2 Hungerford in the style that suggested the progression to Group 1 was within his compass in 2026
Maybe his proven stamina albeit at a low level as a 3yo before moving to Haggas left open the possibility that success at the top level could be achieved at 8f. It looked even more feasible when he was an eye catching 2nd in the Group 1 Lockinge on his seasonal debut behind Notable Speech. That horses dislike for Ascot created the expectation that the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot would be the crowing moment. It looked odds on to happen as he boar down on the front running Opera Bello with Notable Speech already beaten only to be caught deep inside the final furlong by the 50/1 ‘social runner’ Ten Bob Tony previously best at 7f on soft ground.
The immediate focus was placed on the Group 1 Prix Jacques le Marois in August. He raced much closer to the pace and looked to be in a position to win 2f out but his ran flattened out and he dropped away. Whilst there must still be a doubt about him getting a mile, Haggas is now convinced that the only way to ride him is ‘cold’ and Marquand from stall 4 will drop him out behind his pace maker Needle Match in 6 and the Ballydoyle pace maker Hawk Mountain in 2. Cristophe Soumilion on Rayif is drawn in 1 and it is conceivable that Marquand and Soumillion will be better positioned than the other market leaders Zavatori, Talk of New York, Gstaad and Zeus Olympics.
It is a race to savor and I don’t want to let More Thunder bow out without backing him. I have taken the 9/1 on offer with Sky ( 4 places) rather than the 10/1 ( 3 places) with other firms.Stake 10pts EW.
More Thunder came in for support 10/1- 7/1 but has drifted back to 9/1 following the comments on the track likely to favour those drawn high.
Finally Almeraq, Division and Binhareer in the Champion Sprint at 2.05. Last year the race was won by the 200/1 outsider Powerful Glory. In the last 10 runnings of the race 7 of the winners have returned S.P’s of 200/1, 40/1, 33/1, 28/1, 16/1 and 10/1 (twice) only Kinross at 3/1 has been a winning market leader.
Since the race was upgraded to Group 1 in 2015 the only other winning favourite at 5/2 was the Shadwell Stud owned Charlie Hills trained Muhahaarar.
Lazzat (2025) 2/1 Kinross (2024) 5/4 and Harry Angel (2017) 5/4 have all been beaten short priced market leaders and with the ground looking likely to be Good the slight doubt that Almeraq needs soft ground, realistically at a price of Evens removes him as a betting proposition.
That price of evens is down to the fact that he Won a Group 1 over course and distance on Good To Firm ground in the summer. Haggas had thought the fast ground had taken away a realistic chance of success at the Royal meeting and he was sent off unconsidered at 28/1. His class and the likelihood that it was the first time he was asked to race on ground that quick enabled him to overcome the conditions.
At Newmarket in the July Cup when asked to repeat the performance on similar ground he ran very poorly. A few excuses have been offered up but to me it looked that by far the biggest reason for the flop was that he wouldn’t let himself down on the ground a second time.
I am not convinced that even good ground will enable him to repeat his Haydock form. On genuine soft ground from a good draw in Stall 8 Evens would be the right price but not on Good ground.
It is the sort of race that Binhareer fitted with first time cheek pieces could make a mockery of his last two runs , although softer ground would also suit the talented grey who has yet to win this season.
He is well drawn with the pace likely to suit the runners drawn towards the stands rail. Also the third stable contender Division has finally escaped a draw on the wing and if the high numbers are favored is well positioned in 12 providing he doesn’t miss the break.
It is a race I will watch and cheer on Almeraq to record a 3rd Group 1 success in 2026 and become the first champion sprinter to be housed at Somerville Lodge.
The ground is perfect, although it will be surprising if on the straight course the stands rail (high numbers) don’t have an advantage.
The decision not to weigh in heavily with Almeraq at a short price is entirely based on the small doubt I have that his run at Newmarket in the July Cup was down to the 4yo remembering the feeling he had when accelerating on fast ground at Royal Ascot. Also in my mind, is his head carriage when first asked to quicken at Haydock, before realizing the pain of the fast ground wasn’t there and he accelerated in breath taking style to land a second Group 1 and our 9/1 Ante-Post bets.
Remember this is a horse that suffered a horrendous fall at York and with a further factor the poor record of market leaders, it just didn’t make any sense to back him at Evens.
I have missed the value in the race which was the 12/1 available about Division. With the full going report suggesting high numbers may have a big advantage he is drawn in Stall 12 and has been cut into 9/1 (1-4) places Bet 365 is still available he is generally 8/1 (3 places) with most firms.
Division, has been very unlucky all season but Ascot is a course that favors course specialists and even as a 2yo he didn’t get any luck over the course and distance. His form at the track is 5,3,3,4 and I can see him again struggling to find room to challenge as the pacesetters in the field head across to the stands rail.
Given that, ‘Bet or No Bet’, I will be on the side of Almeraq in his bid for a Group 1 hat trick- to a degree it’s a race where my heart can rule my head.
Today’s racing again proved that you need a slice of luck even when getting the right price. The fact we got 9/2 about Venetian Lion and 11/2 Guesstimate didn’t matter – the way the races panned out they could have been 6/4 and 5/4 and still lost.
Punting Strategy : No Bet
Two horses run at Southwell Encore bids to follow up her Kempton win placed into handicap company at 6.00 Southwell. I was very unimpressed with the manner of her win and if I layed horses she would be at the top of my list.
Thaluna has been very disappointing , this season. Maybe the AW will bring some improvement but in the fillies handicap at 5.00pm she has to take on the impressive course and distance winner, The Third Star and the well backed Wid it looks a tall order.
No Bets at Southwell
Summary of Saturday Advices (Scale 10pts-100pts)- All Ascot
1.30 10pts ew Opportunity 14/1 (1-3 places)
2.40 10pts ew Lilt 8/1 – 10/1 ( 1-3 Places)
15.20 10pts ew More Thunder 1-4 places Sky)
4.35 25pts ew Scoville 5/1 ( 1-5 Places)
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