William Haggas has his sights set on Saint-Cloud on Sunday, with four runners heading across the Channel—although current storms may well impact their travel plans. I will cover those four races tomorrow.
That leaves the very disappointing 3yo Crown Office to fly the Somerville Lodge flag on Saturday, which is no bad thing given the sharp dip in the yard’s Saturday strike rate this season. It currently stands below 15%, compared to almost 25% in 2025.
Looking at Saturday handicaps only, the 2026 strike rate is just 14%, compared to 32% in 2025.
A further delve into the figures shows that just over 20% of Saturday handicaps contested by Haggas-trained horses sent off in the top three in the market were winners. This compares to 36% in 2025.
All in all, those numbers fully explain why this season’s profits have stalled after an excellent start. Backing all Haggas-trained handicap runners sent off in the top three in the market on Saturdays was returning a profit until July, after which losses of over 20 points were incurred.
On some days there have been 10 or more runners, many well-fancied in the markets, so restraint has been a priority—especially given the successes of the previous 12 months.
As a further example, across the three Saturdays this October, 16 runners have contested handicaps, with only one—Hoseki at 5/4—winning.
The main factor has been the poor performances of the 3yo handicappers in Classes 3, 4, 5, and 6, as well as the older handicappers in general.
The only runner this Saturday is Crown Office, who fits the exact profile of the 3yos that have underperformed this season. He has contested six handicaps off marks between 84 and 82, and has been dropped 2lb to run off 80 on Saturday. Having run over trips up to 10f, he drops back down to 7f on heavy ground.
Remarkably, in the 4:30 at Doncaster, he is the 7/2 market leader in a 15-runner field. The reason he is running comes down to the fact that he is in the sales ring next week, making this a last-gasp attempt to increase his value.
There is very little to suggest he is about to get things right for the first time this season, and 7/2 represents very poor value.
This week to date for Somerville Lodge has produced nothing other than what was expected. The three strongly fancied 2yos with experience—Al Qayed, Sea La Rosa, and Bulletsnap—all won. As expected, Bulletsnap was very impressive and looks likely to develop into a Black Type sprinter on soft ground next season.
The horses running before heading to the Tattersalls sales again all failed to win, although Desert Treasure was extremely unlucky, and Art Lover was once again not helped by the very soft ground. I expect both will attract interest from yards targeting the winter all-weather sprint races, where they may prove good value.
I will update again on Saturday with news of the four runners due to race at Saint-Cloud on Sunday.
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