The heavy ground and wet weather will ensure the mud is flying at Redcar, Leicester and Chantilly tomorrow and with 5 on the AW surfaces at Kempton and Southwell there will be an unprecedented total of 12 runners for Somerville Lodge on a Monday across five meetings.
I will deal with all 12 based on the race classifications starting with the maidens and novice events for 2yo’s.
At Redcar Procyon 12.25 and Iron Stone Lad 12.55 will both be at short odds to get their heads in front following positive initial racecourse experiences. The market moves near to the off will truly reflect their chances.
In the Leicester 1.07 the well bred Miss Deeds has been introduced at 13/8 to win on debut – that is completely unrealistic and very poor value given the way Haggas 2yo’s are prepared for their first experience on the racecourse.
In the 1.37 If You Like was disappointing on debut and is 14/1 to win the Class 4 maiden. He looks a horse for handicaps next season.
Next up is the 3yo’s running in maidens and novices. It is perhaps significant that Tom Marquand goes to Southwell to ride. Hs first mount is on the 3yo Tempestra for owners Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy in the maiden at 5.30. It’s been a frustrating season for the Bloom partnership with their Somerville Lodge 3yo fillies -this will be Tempestra’s first run since April and their potential Group 1 filly My Ophelia has yet to race this year.
This race hinges on, if Peace Belle can run anywhere near to her mark, if she does she should won – however a big market move on Tempestra would be significant. Marquand’s other rides at the track are in 3yo handicaps which I cover later in the note.
Rowif is towards the head of the market, in the Redcar Novice stakes at 1.55. He only ran to mark of 55 on debut and whilst he is sure to improve the price of 11/4 is very poor and he is easily avoided for betting purposes.
The other maiden is Flagbearer who has been very disappointing and tries to win for the 5th time in the Kempton Novice over 12f at 6.15. He has looked regressive and it will have to be a very poor race for him to win.
4 of the remaining 5 runners are from the group of the underperforming 3 year olds rated 85 or less. This year 121 have competed in Class 4 or lower handicap races with only 12 winners. By coincidence In 2025 from the same number of runners there were 34 successes.
This month too date only Caraway has won from 15 runners. She is one of the more consistent 3yo’s which is not a description that can be applied to any of the 4 on Monday.
Magic Box runs in the Class 4 3.14 at Leicester. She was flattered by her second at Nottingham and it looks a big ask for her to improve again on very heavy going. She has been withdrawn from the Tattersalls sales which offers some encouragement but the heavy ground makes this a particularly tricky race to solve.
It’s not a surprise that Weffaag has attracted support from 5/1 into 10/3 in the 5.45 at Kempton, as Oisin Murphy has been booked. This will be only his second ride for Somerville Lodge in 5 years having previously ridden 15 winners in 67 rides before 2021.
Weffaag is the typical Haggas 3yo type that progress from a mark in the 70’s then moves up the class ladder. That appeared the plan on his first step into handicap company at York where he was the heavily backed into 5/2 before drifting near to the off back to 4/1. That is always a red flag with these Somerville Lodge types and he ran very poorly. Slowly away and looking woefully inexperienced throughout the race.
That hardly suggests he can deal with the difficulties of a 14 runner Kempton handicap from stall 2 where a brisk start is imperative. I am happy to let him take his chance unbacked. He is still due to be sold later this week
The fact that Murphy rides Weffaag at Kempton does suggest Marquand rides at Southwell for good reason. I think that could be Yimmna in the 6.00. The filly has been disappointing, but showed promise on her first visit to the AW at Kempton. Her four runs have underwhelmed but a close look through her runs suggests that on her second outing over a 1m that she would be suited by that trip.
On her next two outings she was dropped to 7f and her handicap mark is down to just 73. She was beaten at odds on at Redcar but I thought she was given a strange ride forcing the pace but not tracking across to the favored far rail. Her run at Kempton in hindsight was in a hot novice and the first two have both won again since.
Her overnight price of 6/1 is very good for a Haggas 3yo on handicap debut in a Class 5 and despite the poor run this season of horses in this category she looks worth an interest.
It goes without saying she is bred to be considerably better as a half sister to the Group 2 placed Auduban Park
Recommended Stakes 20pts ew Yimmna 6.00 Southwell.
The final 3yo handicapper to run on Monday is Encore in the 7.30. She is up in grade and as I said when she looked very reluctant when asked to win a Class 5 over the course last week she is a filly to avoid. I expect her to drift from the opening price of 7/2 and will be very surprised if she goes off less than 5/1
Finally over at Chantilly Extremely Zain drops to 6f in the 19 runner Group 2 at 3.15. The problem is he has drawn stall 2 which although normally a good draw can be a huge disadvantage in big fields on soft ground. He is unproven on Soft ground and the risks are too high to warrant a bet.
In summary one bet on Yimmna but I would expect one or more of the 2yo’s to win as well.
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