By the time Lake Forest runs in the Breeders Cup Turf Mile on Saturday evening Somerville Lodge would have sent out over 40 runners in 7 days. In the corresponding week in 2025 the total was 12.
This reflects the impact of the prolonged fast ground throughout the summer and the delay it caused in getting the 2yo’s onto the racecourse. A majority of this week’s runners have been juveniles.
The horses have ran well in nearly all cases very much as expected. A few of the older horses showed signs that the season had caught up with them, and several ran before being sold at the Tattersalls Autumn Sales during the week. In total 16 horses were sold and will move to other yards. These included Wiltshire who landed a super gamble for us in April and also High Degree, Eternal Force and Crown Office who cost us plenty.
With Cieren Fallon and Tom Marquand in Kentucky on Saturday Harry Davies has a great chance to solidify his position at Somerville Lodge with six rides for William Haggas at Newmarket.
We proved right to not get involved from our betting perspective on Friday with the unexposed 2yo’s under performing with the exception of Old Compton and Carbine Country as I expected not able to improve on his debut run.
The best outcome on the day for Somerville Lodge was the impressive win of Solo Quest who had been beaten by the Haggas trained Born this Way when both horses made their debuts at Yarmouth.
I would rate Born This Way at the moment as the No 1 2yo from the yard to follow in 2027..
Another 10 horses go to post on Saturday. First up are three newcomers in the 12.25 at Newmarket. Any one that doubted not backing Haggas 2yo’s first time on a racecourse only needed to watch today. Only top quality horses or races that are incredibly weak equate to a Haggas 2yo winning on debut.
There is no indication that Astral Mist, Palace Rose, and Heather Way are top class and Newmarket maidens are rarely weak. It’s an obvious No Bet race.
Finalise runs in a Group 3 in Cologne at 1.30. She was very disappointing at Haydock. Darragh Keenan travels to Germany for the ride. She has a small each way chance of reaching the frame.
Mezza Forte is another with just a small ew chance in the Horris Hill at 13.40. The Aiden O’ Brien trained Bengal Tiger will be a short price and ruins the race for betting purposes.
The dual Nursery winner Diplomata is also chasing Black Type in the 2yo Listed race at 2.10. Her price of 25/1 reflects her chances, in a race where Aiden O’Brien looks very likely to complete a double and seal the UK trainers title.
In the nursery at 15.23 Under Arrest will attract support at around 4/1. She is a home bred for Lael Stables a big supporter of the yard and William Haggas will visit their establishment in USA for the first time after the Breeders Cup.
My worry is that he is not a big colt and as this is his 3rd race in 20 days with 9’7′ to carry it may prove beyond him.
At Southwell in the 6.15, the one time potential star Princling, runs in a hot Class 2 handicap . He is towards the front of the market. This Autumn this type of race at the track has been fiercely tough and generally rough.
I doubt Princling has the bottle for this contest and I am not tempted to chase the losses incurred on him already this season.
Another Abbot is one of a very few 4yo handicappers that have had a good season and he looks for a 3rd win in the Class 3 at 19.25. This is his grade but with a maximum field of 14 – the 6f big field races at Southwell have been carnage, a bookies benefit and a lottery for betting purposes.
We have the 20/1 about Lake Forest in the Breeders Cup Turf Mile at 8.20 he priced now at 10/1 but will need plenty of luck in running from a good/bad draw in Stall 2 – he has the talent to go close if he gets the breaks. On reflection he is probably the best chance the yard has of a winner on the day.
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