One runner Tuesday 3 on Wednesday for Somerville Lodge
The one horse I want to back more than other from Somerville Lodge for the remainder of this year goes to post on Wednesday at Nottingham.
Venetian Lion is extremely well handicapped from an unchanged mark of 81 and although he has won 3 races this season he should have won his last six after being gelded !
Tom Marquand is not available and Ceiren Fallon takes over which is probably a relief for Tom as he didn’t excel on two of those defeats, he was also on board on the other.
The track, trip, going, strong pace forecast and draw are all perfect and the only danger I can foresee is the fact that Venetian Lion will be having his 7th run since the gelding operation at the end of July.
Had he won those 3 races he would now be rated in the 90’s which is his level. He was entered in the Tatterstall’s Autumn Sales but was unsurprisingly withdrawn, as even if he wins on Wednesday he will still be well handicapped going into next season. The danger of this being one race too many is a real one and I will cut back my stakes for that reason.
50pts win Venetian Lion 15.23 Nottingham
Earlier in the card Indhaar will be a shortish price to initiate the first leg of what could be a double on the card for Fallon and Haggas in the 14f Maiden at 1.50 . The 3yo will be only having his 3rd race of the season. It is significant that he is given this outing just three weeks after his comeback race but their is a big doubt on breeding about his suitability to stay this trip on soft ground and I will let him run unbacked.
In the Kempton 3.30 with Tom unavailable his wife Hollie steps in for the ride on Endearment in the 8f 2yo maiden. She is a very well bred Sea The Stars filly but showed a high level of inexperience on debut at Yarmouth and will almost certainly need this and another run before being ready to win.
On Tuesday the ultra consistent Caraway returns to Wolverhampton to try and go one better over the course and distance where she was beaten by Saxophonist. There doesn’t look to be a rival on Tuesday of the potential of Saxophonist and the bigger field and stronger pace looks bound to suit her.
She has been supported into 3/1 – that still looks a good price. She owes us nothing as we have backed her on both her wins at good prices and I am happy to go back in again
30pts win Caraway 3/1 Wolves 8.30 Tuesday
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