Somerville Lodge targets just three races on Saturday at Doncaster the final flat fixture on the Turf in 2026. He has no entries at Southwell and that’s it until at least the 16th November when the AW winter season gets into full swing.
My eyes will be firmly focused on the entries for the Fleur De Lys Listed Stakes and the River Eden Listed Stakes at Lingfield on the 19th November.
In the River Eden the Haggas record when he has entered a runner is:
2024 Sea Theme Won 11/10, – 2023 Safety Catch Won 6/1, – 2018 Dramatic Queen Won 11/4,- 2017 Daphne Won 9/2,- 2012 Aniseed 3rd 12/1.
If she has come out of her race in France well Frances Ethel looks ideal for the race and can extend the Somerville Lodge record to 6 from 7.
The returns from the 1m Fleur de Lys Listed Stakes also for fillies only is equally rewarding:
2024 Doom Won 5/2,- 2023 Queen Aminatu Won 11/4, – 2018 Move Swiftly 2nd 4/5, – 2017 MuffriHa Won 13/8,- 2012 Senatoril Won 10/3
Only one other horse has ran in these races Good Gracious who was a double entry alongside Queen Aminatu in 2023 and was unplaced at 16/1.
There seems little doubt that Haggas targets the double having landed both races in 3 of the 5 years he has attempted to win them and narrowly missing out on the other two occasions.
The obvious candidates for the Fleur de Lys would be Song of Clouds or Alobayyah both would start favourite, although I doubt either will be entered.
The other possibility could be Rhapsody who was second over a mile at Royal Ascot before being placed at Group company over longer trips as the season progressed. A Black type Listed win would add to her paddock value.
Back to Saturday, Cieren Fallon is booked on all 3 runners and he is a jockey to follow from now until the end of 2026 as he is especially keen to beat his best ever record of 136 winners achieved in 2025. At the time of writing he is on 120 this year. Last season he rode 17 winners from 100 rides in November and December despite being in Australia for a couple of weeks so a repeat performance will see him reach his target.
There are three runners on Saturday , last year Somerville Lodge sent 8 horses including Castle Cove who landed a gamble in the November Handicap and Montassib – both return this season. There were no runners in 2024, or 2023 and in 2022 a 2nd and 2x3rd places was the return from six runners. By far the best ‘November Handicap’ day was in 2021 when the 7 entries recorded a hat trick.
In the last 15 runnings of the November handicap only Haggas and John Gosden have won the race on more than one occasion. Since it was first ran in 1876, as the Manchester handicap, no horse has Won the race twice. It is therefore not surprising that Castle Cove who was introduced at 8/1 Ante-Post had drifted out to 12/1 before the final declaration stage on Thursday. He is back into 10/1 – that is the bookies Haggas tax being added into the price.
He runs very well fresh so the fact that this is his seasonal debut is not a great concern. What is though, is the 8lb rise in the handicap and more so the drying ground which potentially maybe good to soft given the weather forecast. He relished the extreme heavy ground when landing a big gamble in last years race – and all in all there doesn’t seem to be enough in his favour to back him to create history and be the first horse in 150 years to win the November handicap twice.
Montasibb failed to land a gamble last season in the listed 6f Wentworth Stakes. Sent off 9/4 having been backed from 3/1 into 13/8 at one point.
He lost all chance when he fly jumped out of the stalls and could only manage a one paced 5th. However the very heavy ground was against him and so was the fact that Cieren Fallon his usual rider was in Australia. He attempts to put matters right this year at 2.10.
There is a danger as was the case with Dubai Honour that we can follow these ‘old stagers’ when they are past their best. However, his run at Kempton which had the look of prep for this race, was his best since finishing 5th when second favourite in the 2024 Ascot Group 1 Champion Sprint and a repeat of that run will be good enough to win this listed contest even with the presence of the two improving handicappers Coul Angel and Pellitory in the line up
Last season the best price on offer was 3/1 but this year, he is in better form, the ground is in his favour and with Ceiren Fallon back on board the 7/1 is to big to ignore.
The Haggas season has been highlighted by sprint race successes . It began with a tasty starter with Wiltshire winning the AW Sprint backed from 20/1 into 6/1, followed by the sumptuous main course of Almeraq’s 3 Group 1 sprint victory’s and the icing on the cake can be provided in the season finale by Montasibb.
Stake 30pts 30pts place (7/1 1-4 places) Montassibb 2.10 Doncaster Saturday
Seren Star takes her chance in the other listed contest at 2.45. After a very promising Royal Ascot performance, she has become extremely frustrating following that run with two well below par outings, when expected to collect Black Type. There was a glimmer of hope in her last run upped in trip to 10f, however her odds of 20/1 reflect the difficulty of the task she faces and even at that price I am not tempted to back her.
Summary
Final bet of Turf season 30pts win 30pts place Montasibb 2.10 Doncaster.
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