Stellar Weekend for Haggas followers.

The first weekend in September featuring meetings at Haydock, Ascot and York has a big circle ringed around the Calendar in Somerville Lodge.

Since 2021 over this weekend there have been 29 Class 1,2 and 3 races contested by William Haggas trained horses -they have plundered over 50% – 15 winners and a level stakes profit of over 60pts. That is boosted by the win of Montassib who returned 25/1 when he won the 2024 Sprint Cup. Even ignoring that outlier it is still a very healthy profit.

The question is with so many trends not being repeated this season, can the strike rate be maintained? There seems little doubt that the team is going to give it a good go !

A breakdown of the results by each meeting shows that across the 3 tracks a high level of consistency has been recorded.

Further breakdowns by Year, Race types and distances indicates races over 8F further increase profits :

By year

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Somerville Lodge will contest 7 of the 12 Class 1,2,3 races at Ascot and Haydock. Certainly the bookmakers are extremely weary that last years results could be repeated with Haggas trained favorite chalked up as the market leader in six of them

In total on the day there are 10 entries – I will run through them by Class of race.

We have backed Almeraq at 9/1 – 8/1 Ante Post and with the race conditions in his favour it is no surprise he heads the market at 9/4. His draw in stall 4 of 9 could have been better but also worse. Marvel Man will make the running from stall 5 and the other early pace is all drawn high 9 towards the stand side rail which was favoured last year. There is every chance they will go very quick from the gates and if Marquand can get Almeraq a position inside of Marvelman the race should set up nicely for him to land our Ante Post bets.

There seems no need to top up with 9/4 now pretty short.

Recommended Bet 1pt ew Almeraq 9/1-8/1 Ante Post already advised.

Needle Match has been backed from 4/1 into 5/2 to win for the first time this season in the 8f Group 3 contest that starts the day at 13.25. Haggas has always stated that he needs soft ground and after a wild swing at the 2,000 Guineas on fast ground he was put away for an Autumn campaign. He has a lot of class but will need to show he is ready to tackle a couple of proven Group 2 performers in Dancing Gemini and Persica.

As with Almeraq a lot will be depend on Tom Marquand securing a prominent position from his draw in stall 2 without having to lose his position and drop too far back as the high drawn rivals look to get across to be on the pace. His run at Leopardstown was encouraging but he will need to improve 5lb -10lb from that run to win this. It looks tough and his price factors in a big slice of Haggas tax. He will need to be streetwise to beat these race hardened rivals and after just 4 runs he may not be ready. I have had a small each way investment at 4/1. I expect the 5/2 to drift back out.

Recommended Bet 0.5pt EW Needle Match 13.25 Haydock.

The Class 2 Old Borough Cup handicap at 3.05 is an annual target for Somerville Lodge and the 4yo filly Finalise looks to have been targeted for the race. I wanted to follow her this season ever since she did tremendously well to fight out a finish at Goodwood on her last start as 3yo, narrowly failing after Tom Marquand set a lung bursting pace over 14f on very tacky ground.

She had entries in May at a time when the 4yo staying handicappers were carrying all before them but wasn’t ready to run and was held back waiting for better ground. She finally reappeared in a listed race in Germany where she achieved the aim of getting black type staying on well after over racing in the early stages. She is joined by Kissmehoneyhoney who should have ran at Goodwood last Friday but was withdrawn as the rain failed to arrive in time.

I have no doubt Finalise is the No 1 choice for Haggas. He has won the contest in 2024 and 2025 and she will make a bold bid to complete the hat-trick. Regular followers will be only too aware of the awful current record of the yards older horses in handicaps since Royal Ascot and it would be foolish to recommend big stakes, however she has the potential on Soft ground to be better than the tried and tested rivals she faces on Saturday. I vowed not to back anymore 4yo handicappers this season unless there were extra-ordinary circumstances. The Haggas record on the first Saturday in September each year meets that criteria so I am going to have a small each way bet.

Recommended Bet Finalise 0.5pt each way 4/1 or bigger 4 places

South to Ascot the scene of a Somerville Lodge treble on the card in 2025. This year , the bookies are extremely cautious of running up multiples with short prices on offer for Haggas runners throughout the day. None more so than Thunder Call cut from 3/1 to 6/4 in the 7f Class 2 handicap at 13.40

He has secured a plum draw of stall 10 in a field that has cut up with just 10 going to post. That 6/4 is clearly short enough but his nine rivals are well exposed and I thought the 2nd favourite Addison Grey was gifted his win after Scoville was held up at Newbury where there was no pace and he never really proved he stays this trip.

Thunder Call has been crying out for the extra furlong and with Two Tribes and Ghost Mode certain to make this a fierce pace – this looks straight forward, for the 3yo half brother to the Group placed Haggas trained Skardu and he should win this before moving into Black Type company.

Recommended Bet 2pt win Thunder Call 13.40 Ascot

Ancestor runs in the Class 2 12f handicap at 2.10 a race William Haggas has culled annually winning 4 out of the last 5. Last years winner Tenability and the 2021 winner Chalk Stream were already proven handicap winners coming into the contest. Ancestor is similar to The Reverend in 2024 and La Yakel in 2022 making his handicap debut in the race however they were rated 86 and 87 for their handicap debuts wheres Ancestor has a mark of 92.

They were both suited by ease in the going which were conditions they faced when successful. Ancestor is closely related to the 2022 winner Chalk Stream but that mark of 92 just looks a shade too high given his lack of experience.

Furthermore the presence of Heyzoom who heads the market at 5/4 off a very attractive mark of 85 cannot be ignored

No Bet Recommended.

The final contender in a Class 2 on Saturday is Seren Star in the 16.00 fillies handicap over 9f. After running a great race to be third in the Kensington Palace at the Royal meeting she completly bombed out when a short price to win a small listed race in Germany three weeks ago. She was sent off the 19/10 market leader but made no show. The ground may have been too soft as she seems to prefer fast ground. It may also be that she is very inconsistent and is not a 4yo I want to give a chance too.

No Bet Recommended.

The only runner to contest a Class 3 handicap is Kahin, in the 15.25 a race won by Crown of Oaks last season by 6 lengths from a mark of 85.

Crown of Oaks was thrown in off that mark as the price of 8/11 suggested which cannot be said for Kahin who was well beaten when last seen in this grade from the same mark in mid-July. He has been gelded and is fitted with cheek pieces. His form has not been boosted to suggest he has anything in hand on Saturday. The Gosden trained filly Gavriel looks to have improvement but will need to have plenty of ability to win off 95.

Given the uncertainties about the race in general I am not getting involved.

No Bet Recommended

Two other runners on the day Proposal at Thirsk in the 3.15 will be short in the market. She is quirky and has been suited by running past beaten rivals in larger field handicaps. I am far from convinced she will run to the same level in this small 6 runner field.

Back at Haydock in the Class 4 Handicap over 8f at 17.25, Crown Office will be backed to gain a first win of the season he is introduced at 7/2 in the markets. He does though look a horse without a trip and the draw in stall 1 is far from ideal for a gelding that has looked short of early pace.

No Bet Recommended

Summary of Bets

0.5pt EW Needle Match 13.25 Haydock

2pt win Thunder Call 13.40 Ascot

0.5pt EW Finalise 3.05 Haydock (now 1-3 places N/Rs)

1.00pt EW Almeraq 9/1-8/1 Ante Post 3.35 Haydock