The summer of inconsistency seemed determined to get the last dregs out of August with the performance of Divine Knight on Monday 31st.
The change of month and move to the Autumn campaign has seen a completely different complexion on the Somerville Lodge runners. From what seemed an eternity of not really knowing apart from the stable stars, how each horse would run – last week saw nearly every runner not only run to form but for many put up season best performances.
It started with Pierian who got back to winning ways at Bath putting behind her the lifeless Goodwood run. Then Hardy’s Hero who had been tailed off at Newmarket showed he can win races on the AW. Although finishing 7/7 he had no luck in running and was beaten just under 2L having been trapped on the rail up the home straight off a slow pace. That was his first run on the AW and I am sure William Haggas can win another race with the 3yo owned by his big friend Tim Bridge.
On Thursday the yard landed what I think was their first treble of the season at Haydock. Diplomata appreciating the slow ground and improving 7lb to win the 6f Nursery. There looked a lot more in the locker, and given she gets her conditions will win again.
Sharadd justified his excellent pedigree when demolishing a weak field to win on debut. He has a Dewhurst entry but will need to prove that he stays 7f on faster ground. The pedigree does suggest 6f on Soft ground could be his optimum conditions.
Under a fine Tom Marquand ride Hozeki became the first Somerville Lodge this season to win 4 races when she dealt with the drop back to 10f and soft ground to complete a hat-trick for the yard on the day.
There were 7 other runners on Thursday and all ran their best races of the season. Time Loop was slightly unfortunate not to give the yard a 4 timer.
There were no winners on Friday but once again the three runners all run exceptionally well. The 2yo Korsakov was an eyecatcher on debut on what looked a high class Novice stakes at Ascot, and Creative Queen an unlucky in running 4th up in grade at Haydock and Zennor Storm 3rd at Ascot produced career best performances.
The first Saturday in September has always been profitable for the Haggas yard, but no previous winner would have given William Haggas as much pleasure as the Betfair Sprint Cup winner Almeraq who demolished the field after taking up the running cruising on the bridle and then going away to win by over 4L and land our 9/1 Ante Post bets. The Champion Sprint at Ascot is his for the taking. He looks like the long awaited sprint star the country has been waiting for.
Our other main bet Thunder Call also won very easily in what was an excellent day.
The only other bets on the day the small stakes ew wagers on Needle Match and Finalise didn’t pay out.
The yards 4yo handicappers continue to disappoint, Finalise dropped away tamely at Haydock, although none of stables previous winners of the Old Borough Cup would have had any chance of beating Aegean Dance who won with a ton in hand. Seren Star the other 4yo to contest a handicap at Ascot was also nearer last than first. Although, there has been an upturn in the strike rate generally, the record of 4yo’s in handicaps since the 1st June (omitting Royal Ascot) is only 3 from 50.
Needle Match as I suspected couldn’t handle the step up to a hurly-burly of a tough Group 3 and was well beaten.
We advised that Ancestor was not well enough handicapped to win the 12f Class 2 handicap at Ascot which proved correct as he got run down inside the final 100yds.
My warning not to get involved with Proposal at Thirsk was sound, she saves plenty for herself. At Ascot Kahin was heavily backed but his handicap mark wasn’t generous and so it proved, he ran well but wasn’t good enough finishing 3rd. It is always satisfying when a horse that is heavily backed just because it is trained at Somerville Lodge goes off at a short price and is soundly beaten for exactly the reasons we advised it as a NO BET. That was the case with Crown Office in the finale at Haydock who ran to form finishing 5th after being sent off at a ridiculously short 11/10.
A fantastic day and a breath taking win by Almeraq has set up the Autumn campaign.
The penultimate York card of the season on Sunday offers a good level of success for Haggas without hitting the returns of Haydock and Ascot the previous day. During the past 5 year seasons overall the record is 4-13. Only 1 of the four has been favourite, although Elmonjed was the beneficiary of the fall of stable companion Almeraq in last year’s Garrowby Stakes.
This year 3 are sent from Somerville Lodge. Mezzo Forte is a live contender in the opening 2yo race at 1.30. He will be a decent price with Balding and Beckett juveniles heading the market and is well drawn in stall 5 compared to the other two drawn in 10 and 11.
Haggas has had no luck in this race. His last 3 runners have been unplaced despite being sent off as the market leader . However all three attracted significant support and each had valid reasons for below par performances. Two won on their next outing and the other was 3rd at 18/1.
The horses are running at peak form and Mezzo Forte will improve considerably for his last run. He is bred to be a superstar by Wootton Bassett out of a Group 3 winning 2yo Frankel filly Majestic Glory. Her dam Bella Nouf a winner of two races as a 3yo, trained by Haggas, has also produced the Group 2 winner Running Lion and Runman currently trained by John Gosden who won over a mile as a 2yo.
Izuba and Ghost Raider are dangerous opponents but Mezzo Forte’s debut run was at a time when the 2yo’s were even more than usual needing their first run and at an early show of 6/1 he is worth an interest and is the best chance the yard has of a winner on the day.
Recommended Bet Mezzo Forte 0.5pt EW 1.30 York
Extremely Zain has been the subject of much comment since his runaway debut Newcastle win in January which attracted considerably attention from the professionals that specialize in stride cadence.
That attention looked likely to be merited when he won his first two races this season and was given a Sussex Stakes entry. He then disappointed in a Class 2 Heritage handicap at Ascot when he was the market leader at 15/8 and even more so pitched into the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes where he made no show despite being heavily backed into 4/1.
On both those runs he lacked zip and ran without demonstrating a change of pace in the final furlong. The feeling is that he is more of a speed horse hence the drop down to 6f on Sunday in the Listed Garrowby stakes at 3.50.
He has drawn stall 9 which is not ideal in a race where there is a lot of early pace. Fallon will have to tuck in behind Regional in stall 8 who will contest the lead with Lam Yai in 4 and American Queen in 1. It could be set up for a closer but this York is a track where front runners rarely get caught and on the balance of the race set up and his last two runs he is too risky to back even at tempting odds of 7/1.
No Bet Recommended.
The 7f Class 3 handicap at 4.25 is a new race on the card. The win of Extremely Zain in June was the first York 7f handicap winner from Somerville Lodge since 2017 and the all time overall strike rate n this type of contest is below 10%.
Power Fizz has a lot to prove after two below par runs when he was beaten after meeting trouble coming out of the stalls. This is ultra competitive with the better ground offering chances to the likes of Khafiz, and Hoquetot who could be very well handicapped. Despite his last two runs, that comment doesn’t really apply to Power Fizz and although his Newcastle AW win suggested he is up to winning off his mark of 94, his latest runs for whatever reason, after a long break do not inspire confidence that he is back to the form he showed in the spring.
Even on a stand out weekend the 4yo handicappers were again noteworthy for their poor performance levels and they can only be watched until they start to win a race or two.
No Bet Recommended
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