The Haggas 260/1 – 100% treble on Sunday, of course generates a feeling of what if and thoughts of ‘should I have taken greater risks’ and maybe backed more than just the 2yo winner.
On reflection though taking a balanced view from the evidence across just 24 previous did Extremely Zain have a better chance than Needle Match and did Power Fizz have a better chance than Finalise? The answer was of course no.
The odds and market support for the two that were unplaced on Saturday indicated that these two had better chances than the pair on Sunday. Also remember on Saturday Crown Office and Kahin were heavily supported into short price market leaders and both were well beaten, as we forecast.
What we can take out of the three Sunday winners which followed three at Haydock on Thursday combined with the performance levels of every runner this month is that the lack of confidence and inconsistency which has effected the yard since Royal Ascot is now in the past and the normal high strike rates will return to the patterns of previous years.
That means horses that start to show improvement will continue to do so for one or more runs this Autumn and horses targeted at the upcoming major festivals can be backed with confidence that they will run to form.
What is also certain is that the Haggas runners will be cut in the markets on Monday Evening Fades who was at best a 10/1 chance, drawn in stall 13 of 13 was cut from 15/2 into 5/1 before she was withdrawn – only because of the Sunday treble. After the weekend the first 3 in the market for the Ayr Gold Cup are all trained at Somerville Lodge !!
The Week Ahead The going at Doncaster, who are forecast a dry week, will probably be good just on the fast side, expect the same in Dublin for the Champion Stakes festival. No excuses unless a horse needs cut in the ground.
We have already put up Silver Lake at 9/4 on Friday at Doncaster.
Starting on Thursday the four day Doncaster St Leger meeting- for Haggas runners over the past 25 years trends heavily lean towards horses that are sent off as market leaders with a win strike rate of 42%. (11 from 26). The Strike Rate for horses starting 2nd fav is 2 from 18 and runners outside the first 2 in the market is 3 from 59 just over 5% which basically means anything under 20/1 is poor value.
By comparison over the same 25 year period the record of market leaders at the St Leger meeting with the other top 6 leading yards is:
Andrew Balding1 from 14 (7%), Charlie Appleby 7 from 19 (37%) John and Thady Gosden 19 from 47 (40%) Karl Burke 4 from 8 (50% 7 2yo’s 4 won 3 2nd) A P O’Brien 11 from 27 ( 40%) Ralph Beckett 1 from 12 (8%)
It is partly the reason why I have backed Silver Lake on Friday at 9/4 and 2/1 on the basis of those stats anything over 6/4 is value and she is a 3pt Max Bet– the first of two maximum bets.
‘Once More (Thunder ) unto the breach dear friends once more’. The 5yo has been supplemented for the Betfred Park Stakes at 2.55 on Saturday and it is his for the taking. When he was ran down by Ten Bob Tony in the Queen Anne I had a nagging doubt in my mind that he didn’t stay the mile. That thought was nudged again after his prep for the Moulin back at Ascot.
Given the extreme confidence coming from the yard that the Deauville race, fractionally short of a mile on a flat track was perfect, I completely ignored my feelings and went head long into a 3pt Maximum Bet. 2f out ideally positioned to strike it was a question of how far ? As history now recalls he failed to quicken because at an even pace from the off at Group 1 level he didn’t stay the trip.
On Saturday he is back over 7f and basically has the same task as when he pulverized many of the rivals, due to line up on Saturday, in the Group 2 Hungerford at Newbury last August. Because he is winless this season he avoids a penalty. He is likely to scare off much of the opposition and any price odds against will be a bonus.
‘I will stiffen the sinews summon up the blood’ and head into battle with another 3pt win Maximum Bet.
There are 41 entries over Friday, Saturday and Sunday and there are sure to be several other bets once the declarations and draws are known.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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