Scottish recompense for Haggas on Sunday.

The drift on Binhareer close to the off indicated that confidence was not as high as anticipated in the Ayr Gold Cup. He seemed to get trapped on the rail but more significantly once extracted did not accelerate as expected.

Maybe the runs on fast ground have caused him to hold back when asked to quicken. In any case headgear will surely be fitted on his next run.

The runners at Newmarket and Newbury all ran as expected and we move on with one entry on Sunday at Hamilton.

As I mentioned earlier in the week at this time of the season the trends for Somerville Lodge runners at meetings especially north of Newmarket basically enable punters to back the horses blind.

I’ve never done that but as an example the record for the last 10 runners at Pontefract in September and October ( if you omit a maiden which was sent off at 100/1) was:

W-2-W-2-2-W–W–W. After Thursday it reads W-2-W-2-W-2-2-W–W–W (we backed the 11/4 winner not the 11/10 runner up)

At Hamilton Park since 2002 in September and October Haggas has only sent 10 runners to the track , on each occasion only one horse made the trip – the record is:

W-2-W-W-3-W-W-W-6-W (7 winners and a 70% strike rate)

Only one horse has finished unplaced and that was Bussel in 2007 a filly owned by the Haggas family who was running for the first time in a handicap over 6f after previously only having ran in claimers.

The latest horse to be sent there in the Autumn of 2022 was a 3yo filly called Spanish who won a Class 3 handicap over the extended mile off a mark of 83 on soft ground.

On Sunday at Hamilton at 4.00pm in a Class 4 handicap over the extended mile off a mark of 83 the 5yo mare Time Loop ridden by Tom Marquand will attempt to extend the record to 8 from 11.

Spanish was sent off the well backed 7/4 market leader. We are going to get much bigger with an early price of 6/1 available. There are more similarities with the two fillies. Spanish had been running over 10f and was dropped to 8f to win her race.

Stamina is going to be key to this year’s contest. There looks certain to be a strong gallop and the Hamilton hill will require a horse that has stamina to win at 10f. Time Loop before her last run has been campaigned over 10f and 12f and will have no problem with the trip.

There is a trait in her family line that suggests she will be best over a stiff 8f. Her half sisters Supermodel and Night Battle were both better over a mile after being tried at 10f.

By Lope De Vega the soft ground should not be an issue for Time Loop and she handled good to soft ground at Salisbury well on her latest run, the first time she was raced over 1m.

On that occasion she was 4th beaten only a length in a very messy race where she was short of space on a few occasions. That was the first time she has been asked to run in a big field and race behind a wall of horses, it seemed to suit her. On Sunday the big field of 13 the draw in 4 and the uphill finish look ideal.

There is a field of 12 but only Time Loop, Krissy and Empire off Light have form over 9f or further on soft ground which will surely be the main requirement if the expected strong pace on soft ground plays out.

The simple fact that she has stayed in training a a 5yo mare is a strong indicator that more wins are expected from her this season.

On stats alone she is worth a bet – but the make up of the race is also appealing and if she can reproduce her Salisbury run she should be finishing better than most given the likely strong pace scenario.

Verdict: Recommended Bet 1pt ew Time Loop 9/2 or bigger 4 places)