The four words ‘Not Totally Straight Forward’ suggest minor caution when backing horses with this caveat however, recent experience indicates to me that when applied to a possible betting opportunity it is of major concern.
It is far more significant than any concerns over the conditions, ie Ground, Trip and Draw. No matter what conditions if a horse has a mind not to give 100% that over-rIdes every other factor – In this game you never stop learning.
Three horses we have backed in recent days immediately spring to my mind – Time Loop, Binhareer, and Fast Performer all had question marks following below par runs or the addition of head gear. All three will now be in a box labelled ‘ Not Totally Straight Forward ‘ and avoided for future betting purposes.
Others that have involved significant financial investment such as Saber Strike, Eternal Force, High Degree, Valiancy, Princling, Bayaann, King of Earth, Realign and the 2yo’s Lady Rosalind and Bulletsnap have been added to the box after showing traits in races when we have backed them.
Of all the Somerville Lodge horses this season to have a question mark over their attitude only Scoville has redeemed his reputation.
It is possible that Eternal Force on heavy ground may find redemption as may Realign in the class 3 handicap at Haydock he won last season.
How can we spot these horses before the questionable attitude is proven on the racecourse.? Apart from signs being displayed before and during races there are also family traits that suggest on breeding they may be reluctant race horses.
In the case of Time Loop, Binhareer and Fast Performer I ignored the signs that were apparent in recent races because the races they were contesting strongly indicated everything was in their favour.
That is the lesson learned, its a simple rule really – “No Excuses”
The first two runners this week head for Goodwood and Redcar on Wednesday.
The 2yo The Can Can Man makes his debut at Redcar in the 2.57. Bred entirely on USA based bloodlines – he is likely to need the experience as is the case with a majority of Somerville Lodge 2yo’s on debut.
Verdict No bet
At Goodwood Kissmehoneyhoney bids to get her first win of the season in the 50,000 Class 3 handicap at 4.25. The step up to 14f will suit the 4yo. This race is targeted annually by William Haggas. Since its first run in 2016 he has sent 7 horses to contest the race restricted to fillies, winning 4 and providing a 2nd, 3rd and 4th place finish on the 3 other occasions.
Haggas has an overall outstanding record on this days racing with runners sent to the South Downs. Aside from two ‘horse box fillers’ sent off at 20/1 since 2015 his record at Goodwood on this day is :
2,3,1,3,4,1,2,3,1,3,1,1,4,2,1,1,1. (8-17)
Although this type of stat was to avail on Sunday it was a very positive indicator for the win of Venetian Lion at Pontefract on Thursday.
The 4 winners of the Fillies race won with varying degrees of difficulty including Monica Sheriff who won by 20L down to Daphne (owned by the Queen) who won by a nose in 2016.
The 3 losers were Finalise last year who most observers felt that had Tom Marquand not set such a fierce pace would have won, but despite battling tenaciously was caught inside the final furlong.
Coco Royale was 3rd in 2024 in what turned out to be a very hot 4 runner race with the winner Entrancement securing a Listed and Group 3 contest on her next two outings and Crystal Flyer winning a class 3 handicap off a 2lb higher mark. Coca Royale on her next run was 2nd in a Group 3 contest in Germany.
The only other loser was What a Home who sweated up badly in the preliminaries and looked far from straight forward. It turned out to be her last race.
However a look through several of the comments from Kissmehoneyhoney’s previous races, sees a possible ‘Not Totally Straight Forward’ warning light flashing.
A Goodwood on her run in May -‘ intimidated and forced in behind leader around 2f out, hampered over 1f out, no extra, not knocked about; remains with potential.’
She was outclassed behind Aegean Prince at Haydock but nevertheless had zero response when pressure was applied.
If you ignore the Haggas factor and race history and looked only at form, Kissmehoneyhoney would be behind Personal Best and perhaps Solar Pass, both of whom possess stronger proven staying credentials.
This is one of the biggest field’s in the races history but also the weakest in terms of quality. Kissmehoneyhoney is the lowest rated Somerville Lodge runner to date.
Once the Haggas-in-this-race angle is introduced, her profile becomes much more compelling.
She resembles:
- Royal Mila in coming from shorter trips and a disappointing Haydock run.
- Sea Sylph in stepping up to 1m6f on decent ground.
- Monica Sheriff in being a filly whose stamina may not yet be fully exposed.
The differences are:
- she is older,
- lower-rated,
- and has less obvious form than previous winners.
But she still appears to fit the broad stable pattern of:
“A lightly raced filly with hidden stamina, sent to a race Haggas repeatedly targets when the handicap mark may not yet reflect her staying ability.”
That does not make her the most likely winner on form alone, but it does suggest that her chance is greater than her bare figures imply, and given the past history this race may have been selected very deliberately by the stable. In summary :
Typical Haggas winner in this race:
✓ Lightly raced
✓ Middle-distance form
✓ Stamina pedigree
✓ Step into or around 1m6f
✓ More ability than official rating suggests
✓ Not necessarily obvious on recent form
✓ Patient ride
✓ Improvement expected
Kissmehoneyhoney:
✓ Lightly raced
✓ Middle-distance form
✓ Strong stamina pedigree
✓ Returning to 1m6f
✓ Possible handicap upside
✓ Recent form easy to forgive
✓ Tom Marquand likely to ride patiently
✓ Improvement possible
I cannot ignore the fact that her dam Buildmeupbuttercup was not totally straight forward nor the wide draw in Stall 9 – on balance because of the stable record in the race I want to get involved but only because the 7/1 on offer is a good price.
Verdict : 0.5pts ew Kissmehoneyhoney 7/1 1-3 places
Chrysalis Consortium 
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