Whilst they is a natural desire to see Somerville Lodge start to hit its usual win to runner ratio’s, although there are plenty of entries across Thursday and Sunday this week, history and statistics suggest we may have to wait a little longer.
There are 23 horses entered and of those 17 are maidens.
Lets start with the maidens before looking at the handicaps and the listed race on Sunday.
Going back over the past 5 years at the same fixtures the yard has hit its normal strike rate of around 35% – 8 winners from 23 runners that contested novice and maiden races at the eight tracks.
That percentage would be on a par with any 4 day period across the season with the yard in peak form, as would be the small level stakes loss at SP – the reason we generally steer clear of betting in novices and maiden races.
A breakdown of the performance reveals some further important data:
Unraced horses on debut
0-5 ( 3 were sent off 1-2 in market) best placed finish 3rd
Horses on second outing
5-10 ( 9 first 2 in market) level stakes loss 0.5pts
Horses with 2 or more runs
2-7 ( 4 sent off first 2 in market) Level stakes profit 1.5pts
Only Montassib ran in a novice after a win and he completed the two-timer at Wetherby.
A look at this year’s entries would rule out Brighton Beach, Madrisa and Pierian all making their racecourse debuts.
The most interest will focus on the maiden and novices declared at Haydock and Wetherby. Any Haggas runner at Haydock is always of interest. Wetherby is more surprising with an overall track record of 6-16 in maidens and novices (6-14, 1-2-3 in market)
At this corresponding Sunday fixture the record is 3-4 over the last 10 years. It is significant that those 3 winners were Montassib, Arabian Force and Ametist who all went on to be very useful horses.
This year the Wetherby entries include Adamlyi, Princling and Oathbound all reported to be potentially 90+3yo’s.
Moving onto the handicaps and firstly the listed race entry: Kissmehoneyhoney in the 4.55 at Nottingham Sunday.
She sprang a surprise when breaking out of the stalls quicker than anticipated at Leicester but showed great determination to win first time out. The form has not really worked out and she is likely to get a handicap mark of around 86. If the key entries take their chances she would need to run to 96+ to get involved here – if she runs it looks in hope of getting some black type rather than a second win.
Magic Box starts the season off a mark of 76 and has entries at Doncaster Friday, Haydock Saturday, and Wetherby on Sunday. She maybe of interest as she has been ready to run for some time and starts the season on a workable mark.
Winter Flower is entered at Doncaster and Haydock on Saturday. The 4yo filly contested the Winter Oaks Class2 handicap at Lingfield and ran really well to be 5th just over 2L behind the now 100+ rated Morrephore and Sky Safari.
That mark of 82 looks very fair and if she runs at Haydock on Saturday it will be in Class 4 company which would give her every chance of getting her season off to a winning start.
Back to Wetherby on Sunday and Poetry of Time at 3.35 and Luminaire at 4.05 both with Tom Marquand jocked up. The pair look to have good marks of 78 and 74. Luminaire will be the first 3yo handicapper on the turf to be race fit from the AW and is another that will be of an interest from a betting prospective.
Despite the entries I don’t expect a host of runners possibly 15 in total neither do. expect to hit that 35% strike rate figure and the yard will be happy with 2 or 3 winners heading into Guineas weak.
Tomorrow at Beverley the very disappointing pair of Al Maslool 1.52 and Keep it Classic in the 5.25 have been declared. Neither has shown anything on the track to date to warrant immediate consideration, however the Haggas record in Class 6 handicaps has to be noted in the case of Keep it Classic, especially if it is strong in the market.
On breeding Keep it Classic will be suited by the step up to 10f and although beaten at least 15L or more in 3 runs over 7f, it wouldn’t be the first time Haggas gets improvement given a significant step up in trip and with headgear on for the first time. In 2024 Marquand and Haggas won this race with Little Rose in 2024 rated 47 who was sent off 5/4 favourite having been well backed and made all.
I suspect, despite the step up in trip, front running tactics will be adopted on Thursday. It is one of those Somerville Lodge runners that would only be of interest ‘with the addition of cash’. A similar type in Caraway made its handicap debut earlier in the month in a first time hood and plodded on to be 4th. He was weak in the market returning at 17/2 in a 6 runner field.
No Bets added on Thursday on the P/L account.
REFA Hag Tag 2026.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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