When Winter Flower on Saturday became the 2nd consecutive runner from Somerville Lodge to be totally unsuited by newly tried front running tactics on fast ground, the Haggas doom mongers were in full flow.
As predicted though the weekend saw the corner turned with the forecast 3 winners on the scoreboard. The wins of the maidens Proposal, Princling and See the Storm were supplemented by the eye catching seasonal debuts of the other maidens Pierian, Oathbound, Chimes of Thunder and Brighton Belle. What was apparent was the increased fitness levels of all the runners which clearly took a step forward from the yards previous runners this season.
Having also accurately predicted the lack of runners from the Somerville Lodge yard, following the Craven meeting I am equally confident that it will be all systems go from the start of May.
Aside from 2022 which was an outlier year with a 33% strike rate the increase in runners does not immediately bring about a strike rate of above 20%. The record for May since 2019 reads:
2025 the strike rate was 17%, 2024 15%, 2023 20%, 2021 19% and 2020 was (Covid ) 2019 19%
All that means there is a need to remain selective and allow the horses to gain experience on the track to be ready to reach their peak performance levels in the summer months. I anticipate 80-100 runners in May with around 20 winners.
Monday at Lingfield, the newcomer Madrisa makes her debut in the fillies maiden at 3.15. As is always the case a watching brief only is advised but it is likely a few more off these maidens and novices will be winning as we head into May and the Guineas meeting this weekend.
No recommended Bet Monday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
Leave a comment