No real significant upscale in runners for Somerville Lodge on Saturday with 3 maidens and a single handicapper going to post.
Two of the three maidens head for the 2.00 at Haydock. The unraced well named Palace Pier filly Brighton Beach and Chimes of Thunder has her first start for the yard having ran once as a 2yo when trained by David Menuisier. She is a beautifully bred Night of Thunder filly out of an unraced Kingman filly and is very much one to watch for future.
At Doncaster in the maiden at 5.10 James Doyle rides the Wathnan owned filly Proposal who was slightly disappointing when beaten on her 3rd outing as a 2yo albeit by a heavily backed Goldophin debutant. In 3rd was the Andrew Balding trained NanoScience who won on her seasonal debut at Kempton earlier this month.
Proposal has been given an initial rating off 76 which seems reasonable and as she is expected to come on for the run on Saturday I suspect it will be next time in handicap company when she can be supported. It looks a hot maiden with some very well bred newcomers and the Richard Hannon trained Tahalel who failed to live up to a big reputation as a 2yo but could be a very useful 3yo this season.
From a betting prospective one horse stands out on Saturday and that is Winter Flower in the 3.10 Haydock a Class 4 handicap over ten and a half furlongs.
Last seen in the Class 2 Winter Oaks Trial Handicap over 10f at Lingfield in December running off today’s mark of 82, she ran an excellent race finishing just over 2l behind Morrephore. The winner ran off a mark 98 and then won the Winter Oaks Handicap and is now rated 105.
Winter Flower travelled noticeably well throughout the race and it was only the sharp turns and undulations at Lingfield that prevented her at least getting in the frame.
Wilhelmina who finished just under 1 length in front of her won on her next start and the form of the race and subsequent collateral form through the winner and Sky Safari is rock solid.
On her penultimate outing Winter Flower was 2nd to Bahadur in a Class 4 handicap at Newcastle. The winner defied a penalty off a 6lb higher mark. The Haggas filly travelled really well into the race but gave away a better track position to the winner and didn’t quite stay out the stiff 12f trip at Newcastle. That form also looks very good for a Class 4 event.
It’s no secret that Haydock is a great favourite of Haggas. In all handicaps at the track backdating to and including 2021 his win strike rate with horses sent off 1,2,3,4, in the market in handicaps is over 27% with 84% finishing in the first 4. I expect that this race has been the target for Winter Flower for some time.
She has been drawn widest of all in stall 10 and whilst not ideal – it will force Tom Marquand’s hand. When faced with this position he prefers to stay wide for the first 2f and then cut across and get a position either on the front end or just behind the leaders. He did that expertly on First Principle when that horse landed our first bet of the season.
Racing close to the pace is greatly favored at Haydock and being by Ghaiyyath she should improve with age and be suited by a forward running style. There is plenty of pace from stall 1 and 2, which should ensure a strong pace for Winter Flower who will appreciate a stiff test of stamina, at this trip on a flat track, and it is that stamina that I expect will give her the edge on Saturday. She can win this and progress throughout the season to be good enough to earn black type.
With the slow start to the campaign for the yard extending throughout April there is a need to be cautious and she is the sole bet on Saturday at around 7/2.
Recommended 1pt Win Bet Winter Flower 3.10 Haydock.
I said earlier in the week that the most interest from a Somerville Lodge prospective over the next 7 days would likely be focused on Wetherby on Sunday – that has proved to be the case.
William Haggas has decided to go duel handed in both of the Novice events and each has the potential to be a high class 3yo.
In the 2.30 Princling and Oathbound make their seasonal debuts both having a third outing after which they will get handicapped. Princling is very likely to win this race at skinny odds. On his last race in October 2025 he was probably the 2yo most confidently expected to win last season. As it turned out he got beaten by Yasim despite getting 7lb from the Gosden horse, but that now looks to be a very good effort as that horse is now Epsom Derby bound.
Oathbound has shown less promise and didn’t take to the Tapeta at Southwell on his second outing. That run didn’t in anyway reflect his ability and he is one for the notebook for decent handicaps down the line.
In the 3.00 See the Storm has her first run for the yard having joined from David Menuisier at the end of last season. On her second outing she was 2nd in a Group 3 race at Baden Baden and should be too good for her 6 rivals, although stable mate Pieran looks promising and it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if she upset See the Storm.
The restrictive prices will mean no bets on Sunday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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