With the winning bandwagon now firmly on the road, Somerville Lodge has numerous entries across most of the meetings during the 3 day Guineas festival.
The Yarmouth team on Thursday all ran well Venetian Sky, Adamlyi (heavily gambled) Venetian Lion and Golden Horse. We avoided bets on the two well backed horses the predicted lack of experience of Adamlyi and harsh handicap mark of Golden Horse proving correct assessments for the horses that were sent off as 11/8 and 15/8 favorites.
Before looking at Friday a quick look at the yards recent record at this Guineas meeting.
It’s worth starting with a look at the stats for the yard at Newmarket during these 3 days since 2021.
As always – runners sent off in the first 4 in the market are the pivotal start point. There were no winners at the bigger prices
The yard has sent out 24 runners at the meeting with 4 winners. More Thunder was the only winner of a handicap at the meeting, Merchant was a beaten favourite in a handicap on seasonal debut at this meeting last season, and there has only been one runner in either of the Guineas – Sacred finishing unplaced in the fillies classic in 2021.
Of the other 3 winners Sea Just in Time won a fillies novice stakes race on debut , but subsequently became extremely disappointing. The talented Unequal Love won a listed stakes race before going on to win the Wokingham in June 2024 and Mohaafeth won the listed 10f Stakes before going on to win the Group 3 Hampton Court stakes at Royal Ascot in 2021. Of the 4 winners 3 went onto to win at Royal Ascot in the same year.
This festival meeting wouldn’t be top of the target list for the yard and whilst likely to match the 7 runners that went to post last year a sudden increase in the win to runner ratio seems wishful thinking.
In a normal year, if the yard gets one or two winners at Newmarket on Guineas this weekend they would be happy, but 2026 has not been a normal year and I suspect that two winners will be the minimum expectation with two highly rated very promising 3yo’s running on Friday.
The first runner is Earthshot who finished behind her much touted stable mate My Ophelia on her debut here on the Rowley mile and was in many ways just as eye-catching.
There are real hopes in the yard that My Ophelia is a Group 1 filly and it goes without saying that Earthshot is fully expected to win the opening race of the Festival on Friday at 1.45. The unraced 3yo filly Velvet Vega is not expected to be amongst the better Gosden 3yo fillies and the form of those that have had a run doesn’t come close to Earthshot who I expect to win this at odds on and then progress to listed and or group races.
Sober Strike steps straight into listed class in the 7f King Charles Listed stakes at 4.40. The form of his 3L debut demolition of Cape Azure at Redcar as a 2yo was boosted when that horse won a class 3 handicap off 88 at Pontefract earlier this month. On that form line Sober Strike must already be rated 100+ and would give him every chance in this race, that also features the impressive course and distance winner Cerro Blanco.
With Stellar Sunrise also in the mix it has the makings of a highly informative contest, which I will watch without investing. There is a feeling in the yard that Sober Strike may well be best at 6f ( he has a Commonwealth Cup entry) and on seasonal reappearance the final furlong of the Rowley Mile course may just prove beyond. He was introduced in the market at 5/2 but a drift to 4/1 looks significant.
Just to emphasize how this year is different, Haggas also sends Santorini Star and Zennor Storm to post at Newmarket on Friday.
In recent times 7 runners across the 3 days has been the most contested – in 2023 they had just 1 runner at the meeting. This year numbers are likely to be into double figures.
Santorini Star is pitched into the Group 2 Jockey Club stakes at 3.30. She is heading for Group races over 2m but in what is not the strongest looking Jockey Club stakes , if she gets an easy lead a surprise is not out of the question. She is extremely tough and should run well but her price around 13/2 factors in her toughness to the maximum and she should really be a 10/1 shot.
Zennor Storm surprised the yard with the manner of his wins at Kempton where he showed a great attitude and is a horse that clearly wants to win. He starts 2026 over a mile in the Class 3 handicap at 2.55 but has an entry in the 100,000 Gowran Classic on the 1st June and i suspect this race has been selected as a prep for what will be his main early season target.
He is priced up at around 13/2 on Friday but I will watch with a view to potentially wait for Gowran Park before investing.
Over at Ascot –
Division runs in the Commonwealth Cup trial at 3.10. This is a genuine trial for the main event with Wise Approach and Coppull heading the market. Division was disappointing at the track on Champions Day, but that run can be ignored as he was bumped on both sides leaving the stalls and it fired him up and he pulled away his chance in a race won by Mission Central.
He still finished 5th but was beaten over 4L. Wise Approach is 2nd favorite for the Commonwealth Cup behind Charles Darwin and if ready to go on debut will take a lot of beating.
Fair play to the connections of Another Abbot who keep the faith with the infuriating 4yo gelding who makes his seasonal debut in the 5f Class 4 sprint at 4.10. Given the horses attitude we got lucky last season backing him on the two occasions he won but also a third time at Salisbury when he was almost unrideable and was virtually pulled up.
It was a performance of a horse that could never be backed with confidence moving forward, the fact he stays in training confirms he has a high level of ability. It is possible that first time out maybe the best time to catch him but the memory of that Salisbury run when he was a 3pt bet is still strong and I simply can’t back him again.
At Goodwood
Kissmehoneyhoney takes her chance in the 12f listed stakes at 3.50. I noted Daniel Muscutt was booked for the ride on Monday and she is a filly that will do well this season over staying trips.
Her lack of experience makes it difficult to see beating the 103 rated 6/5 market leader but she is more than capable of picking up some black type where most of the rivals are rated in the high 80’s.
Another to watch without the need for a bet on her first run of the season.
Newcastle
Is the chosen venue for the final runner on Friday, where Ellkeem runs in the Class 4 7f Novice Stakes at 6.30.
Unless the unraced pair Eljowhary from the Roger Varian yard and the Ed Bethell trained Marhayb are good enough to run in the high 80’s on debut, Ellkeem should win on his first run of the season, albeit at skinny odds around Even Money.
Summary
We continue to keep our powder dry on Friday – that will change on Saturday on what will be our biggest betting day of the season so far.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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