It’s great that several of the leading horses housed at Somerville Lodge are in action on Saturday on what’s look likely to be a big day for followers of the yard.
The best horse in action is the Group 1 winner Lake Forest who has amassed over 3.5 million in prize money despite not winning at all last season. He is due to have his first race of the season at Haydock in the 7f listed stakes at 3.40.
He is horse that needs fast ground and with an uncertain forecast with possible showers hitting the Liverpool area leading up to the race I will wait until after the results of the 2.30 and 3.05 races before backing the 5yo . He will be bet If the ground is good or no bet if it is on the slow side. I will put a message out to clarify my decision at around 3.15pm.
Also at Haydock at the other end of the ability range Keep it Classic has just 8’5 to carry off a mark of 52 in the handicap at 2.30 .Jack Doughty takes the ride as Ceiren Fallon cannot do the weight. The 3yo gelding is another slow burner that is slowly improving. I anticipate further improvement from his 4th at Yarmouth.
However, there are a couple of other big improvers in this race, which looks strong for the grade and I will watch without having a bet.
At Lingfield Park another potential stable star Maltese Cross attempts to secure a place in the Epsom Derby in the Lingfield Derby Trial at 1.58. we have advised the Newbury winner at 5/1 1-2-3 places Ante Post. He is now around 3/1 in the field of six. Mayo Bay is the favourite for a Goldophin team who are struggling for form and the all conquering Ballymore team rely on what looked at the entry stage their third string in Isaac Newton. The yard had desperate luck with slippery ground resulting in Morshdi being pulled out of the Dee Stakes at Chester but Maltese Cross will get the fast ground that suits him and he should run a big race and is well fancied to win.
Already advised 1pt ew Maltese Cross 1-2-3 places 5/1.
Tom Marquand also teams up with Hardy’s Hero in the 7f 3yo handicap at 3.50. Another that will enjoy the fast ground the son of New Bay seemed transformed by the gelding operation when runner up at Newmarket on his debut over this trip, despite being thought to need the run.
There is a concern about the form of that contest which on reflection was poor by Newmarket standards. He is short enough at around 2/1 and on a busy day I am happy to let him win at that price without a bet.
3.50 Lingfield Hardy’s Hero No Bet Recommended
Over to Ascot and another high quality card. By far the most intriguing runner on the day is Opportunity who makes his handicap debut in the hands of James Doyle in the 12f contest at 2.55.
Haggas targets Ascot Handicaps – last season he collected 8 wins from 18 races contested and it could easily been more with 4 of those beaten considered unlucky in running.
I am certain that if Opportunity wins on Saturday he will be back for the Duke of Edinburgh Handicap at the Royal meeting – he will need to win this to get a high enough rating and avoid a repeat of last years debacle when several of the yards well fancied horses were balloted out.. That mark of 91 means he gets into this class 3 and although Valedictory looks well handicapped off 87 and will be favourite, I expect Opportunity to have too much class for this field.
Significantly James Doyle chooses to go to Ascot for this ride rather than a well fancied horse in the listed race for Wathnan at Haydock.
2pt win 1 pt place Opportunity 13/2 1-2-3-4 places 2.55 Ascot.
Billy Loughnane who rides Valedictory is on board Alobayyah for Haggas in the fillies handicap at 1.45. Haggas hasn’t won this race since 2018 and Alobayyah is on something of a retrieval mission after missing most of last season with a setback. At this time last year she was considered a potential group filly. However her two runs as a 3yo were underwhelming and she needs to show she has retained her ability before being backed.
No Bet Recommended
Finally Romanticizing at Nottingham in the 2.08 and Masked Warrior in the 5.55 at Leicester will be towards the head of the market in the maidens they contest on the afternoon. Both look sure to go close but I will stick to my ‘No Bet Novice and Maiden’ rule.
There have been a few really good horses from the yard win this type of race in the last couple of weeks. In case anyone doubts the value of sticking to the rule – so far in 2026 Somerville Lodge has sent out 37 horses that went off 1-2-3 in the market in this type of race with 9 winners resulting in an 18pt loss to level stakes.
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