An excellent start to the week on Sunday with Valiancy winning very impressively and probably booking his place in the Copper Horse at Royal Ascot. Hopefully some of you got the early price of 5/2. Siren Star ran as we anticipated – she will be better for the run and probably needs to come down in the weights by a few pounds.
Also, by default, after the flop of the Commonwealth Cup favourite Charles Darwin at Naas the 16/1 we advised for Saber Strike looks very good value.
Although there might be a possibility he goes for the Group 3 Jersey stakes my interpretation after his latest piece of work is that he looks every inch a horse with the speed to win Group 1 races. It was his class that enabled him to win over 7f at Newmarket. Don’t forget he needed that race and drifted in the market from 9/4 to 11/2.
Monday and Tuesday features 3 runners from Somerville Lodge
On Monday the Class 2 Windsor fillies maiden over 8f with over 40,000 in prize money up for grabs has unsurprisingly attracted a high quality field of 11.
Based on her seasonal debut run behind Symbol of Majesty Chimes of Thunder who joined Somerville Lodge from David Menuisier over the winter, will be at the head of the market at around 6/4.
However, a majority of the field arrive at Windsor from leading yards and with any amount of improvement possible, based on their initial outings. The market will be a very good guide but I think it is a race to watch for the future, and that 6/4 looks too skinny.
The other Monday runner is Perfect Ruler who steps into handicap company for the first time at Redcar in the 4.10 after showing minimal promise in 3 runs in maiden company.
As a general rule , similar types from Somerville Lodge usually need a run in handicaps before having sufficient experience to win races. Caraway being a typical example on Saturday and I will watch the race to see if Perfect Ruler takes a step forward.
No recommended Bets on Monday
The main focus on Tuesday will be the 2.20 at Nottingham where the highly touted Gosden horse Runman has to give 14lb to the Haggas colt Adamlyi.
This is an almost identical scenario of what had looked to be a high quality ‘match’ at York on Friday between Portcullis and Weheedd. We were robbed of that contest due to the unfortunate injury to the Somerville Lodge colt, shortly after the start of the race..
The market on Friday had opened with Portcullis at 1/2 on and Weheedd 5/2. I don’t think the bookies will be as generous on Tuesday with the Haggas runner. Runman was far from impressive when landing odds of 1/12 at Epsom and the form of Adamlyi’s run at Yarmouth could not have worked out better with his conqueror Euston Hall winning a Class 3 handicap at Newbury on Saturday off a mark of 80. Based on that form Runman will have to run to a mark of nearly 100 to beat Adamlyi , under the conditions of this race.
If Adamlyi is available at any stage of the market at odds of 7/4 or bigger he will be a 2pt win bet – I think it is unlikely though.
REFA HAG TAG 2026
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