Even one of the most successful gamblers in the world can hit a spell of bad luck and the critical defeats of Brighton and Hearts on the football pitch has been followed by misfortune on the racecourse by the Horses in the part ownership of Tony Bloom .
After the narrow defeat of Santorini Star in the Group 1 at Longchamp on Thursday, the heavily gambled 450,000 2yo filly Minzelle was turned over at Haydock. This was followed in the next race when something went wrong with our 3pt Bet Sky Majesty – she finished tailed off last in the Cecil Frail and was eased down by Tom Marquand after being backed into 15/8 favourite. Hopefully she is ok but it is possible she may now head to the paddocks.
Somerville Lodge sends a massive squad of 14 to post on Saturday, although if the predicted warm dry weather takes hold over the next 48 hours there are likely to be several withdrawals. When days such as these occur with a large number of runners it’s good to stick to the principles we apply to all bets from the yard based on three key factors. Most importantly with big uncertainty about the going by the time of the races its a day to be very price conscious.
- The quality and experience of the horse being considered.
- The race conditions.
- Significant trends relating to past performances of horses running from Somerville Lodge: I will deal with all 14 in race time order:
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 1:45 Haydock Consecrated
A 4yo filly that showed real promise first time out as a 3yo when winning at Newbury but generally disappointed afterwards. Possibly because she maybe best fresh is the reason she is pitched into Listed company on her seasonal debut as a 4yo. it looks a big ask and odds of around 16/1 reflect her chances.
NO BET RECOMMENDED
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 2:20 Haydock Princling
A fascinating contender for the 8f Silver Bowl for a horse that I have in mind for a Royal Ascot handicap. From a mark of 87 he will need to go up 5lb to get in at Ascot.
If he wins here he will get that weight increase. However Stall 2 is I believe a potential problem especially on soft ground. The 3yo son of Kingman by Frankellina, has indicated in his 3 runs that he will stay 10f . He was taken out of the 10f London Gold Cup last week at the overnight stage in a race he would probably would have gone off favourite.
Dropped to 8f on Saturday on ground that, may well, be just on the soft side of good by post time, he will need to have the pace to hold his position in the 17 runner field on the round course at Haydock. The alternative will be for Fallon to drop him out and come round the field at a track which normally favours horses racing up with the pace.
The Haggas strike rate at Haydock with 3yo’s in handicaps at Haydock before July is mediocre with a strike rate around 12% . This compares to nearly 35% with older horses and 30% with 3yo’s after July. This completely ties in with the training methodology of Haggas who gives his horses time to mature and many of the 3yo’s are not physically developed sufficiently to run to peak levels before the summer of their 3yo season.
Even though Princling is well handicapped – given his low draw and that he will need every inch of the 8f he may lack the early speed to hold his position in the early part of the race
The yard was very keen to also run King of Earth in this race but couldn’t find a suitable jockey that could do 8’3 and he wasn’t declared. He is horse to back next time out.
Hopefully Princling wins and books his place at Royal Ascot but that 3/1 is too skinny in a race that will need a fair slice of luck in running.
NO BET RECOMMENDED
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 2:58 Haydock Division
A good performance in the Group 2 Sandy Lane will push Division towards the head of the market for the Commonwealth Cup although I remain convinced that Saber Strike is the stables first choice for the Ascot Group 1 contest. It is a great race with Division following his eye-catching run behind today’s rival Coppull sure to be well supported. On ground slower than Good the high numbers at Haydock on the straight course usually have a track bias in their favour. Of the principles Coppull has drawn 6, Division 4, Venetian Sun 3 and Brussels 1. That may give the edge to Coppull, to confirm the Ascot form. I didn’t think Venetian Sun ran particularly well in the 1000 Guineas and she may struggle to repeat her levels as a 2yo.
Division has a bad habit of missing the break which could be crucial in this high quality Group 2 contest and I will pass on this is a betting opportunity. The price of 3/1 looks skinny.
No Bet Recommended
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 3:05 Curragh Montassib
Montassib is the stable selected to contest the Group 2 Greenland Stakes at the Curragh with Billy Loughnane, in Ireland to ride Distant Storm in the 2000 Guineas, taking the ride. Drawn in Stall 4 Loughnane will be able to track the pace and deliver Montassib with his customary late run.
On his form in the Autumn of 2024 when he won the Group 1 Betfair Sprint he would be more than up to winning this contest. However since returning last Autumn after almost a year off he has yet to run within 10lb of that level.
His first run this season at Doncaster in March suggested that he could get back to his best – however that performance on its own was insufficient evidence to back him, especially as he usually runs well fresh. That explains why he has been kept back for this race, however the drying ground at the Curragh is not ideal and it is enough to stop me backing him at a shortish price of around 9/2.
NO BET RECOMMENDED
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 3:10 Goodwood Earth Shot
We spoke about trends being a significant factor in our betting strategies and we mentioned only earlier this week the dangers of backing fillies following up from a very good first run of the season when they go into higher a grade on their next run. I can’t recall a single 3yo filly throughout 2025 and the current season achieving this.
However none fit the profile of both Earth Shot and also Lilt who won Class 2 and Class 1 races on seasonal debut.
Tom Marquand goes to Goodwood to ride Earth Shot in what is a trial for the Oaks. It is significant that the daughter of Time Test wasn’t entered for the Childwickbury Stud Listed Fillies stakes over 10f at Newbury last weekend a race sponsored by her owners.
With stable mate My Ophelia not forward enough to run before or in the Oaks – Earth Shot will head to Epsom with a good performance and I expect her to be to be better than the Gosden hype horse Brilliant Star. The Gosden 3yo’s that a month ago looked a real force in the Epsom classics have dropped by the wayside and I think Earth Shot will have too much speed for Brilliant Star.
If that happens she will have a similar chance in the Oaks to Maltese Cross in the Derby. It will be the first time in memory that Somerville Lodge has two live candidates for both Epsom classics in the same year and will hit one of the early targets I am sure Haggas had planned for this season.
Earth Shot 2pt win bet 3.10 Goodwood
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 3:30 Haydock First Instinct
The ultra game First Instinct has again been handed a bad draw in the Group 2 Temple Stakes. This follows similar misfortune in her last two outings at Newmarket in the Palace House stakes and at Longchamp in the Prix de l’Abbaye. She won’t mind the ground and when she gets a decent draw she will have a chance in any of the top sprints over the minimum trip . Her time will come and hopefully on a day when we have backed her.
No Bet Recommended
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 3:45 Goodwood Guestimate, Evening Fades.
Two bites at the cherry in the this 25,000 Class 2 Novice. Evening Fades is the choice of Tom Marquand and looks to continue the fine run of owner breeder James Wigan. This is not a strong race for the grade or the prize money and I expect Evening Fades to head the market with St Hilda.
The price is unlikely to tempt me to break my No bet Novice and Maiden Rule, that week in week proves the right strategy. Guestimate ridden by Pat Dobbs will be of interest in handicaps after this race.
No Bet Recommended.
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 4:20 Goodwood Finalise
We have made hay with the Haggas trained staying 4yo’s this season and there is no reason that this won’t continue with Finalise in the 14f Handicap at 4.20.
This is a tougher race than the Hamilton contest won by Valiancy last weekend and probably on a par with the York race won by Klassleader.
She probably should have won when caught close home by Dancingwithmyself who renews rivalry again. However, she ran to freely from the front and did remarkably well to finish beaten just 2l. She has a weight pull of 4lb with the Michael Bell horse but I would have backed her to win even on the same times. Like Klassleader and Valiancy she has strengthened up considerably over the winter and providing she settles early could be better class than a handicapper this season. She was entered in the Group 3 Bronte Cup at York on Saturday but that would have potentially spoiled her handicap mark of 86. An emphatic win on Saturday in a race won by the subsequent 2025 Copper Horse handicap winner French Master could see her take her chance in the same race at Royal Ascot.
It is very significant that Tom Marquand will ride at 8’7 which is the lowest he can manage. The ground though will be a good to firm by the time of the race. She has a high knee action and was beaten at 2/7 on as a 3yo on Good To firm . She may well be a non runner but on fast ground I couldn’t back her especially at the early price of 5/2.
No Bet Recommended
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 5:15 Haydock Eternal Force
If the ground stayed soft drawn in stall 13 Eternal Force would be a be a 3pt Bet. Although it looked disappointing his Lincoln run on ground that was almost on the fast side of good by race time can be significantly marked up.
If this race was Friday it would our biggest bet of the season so far – the forecast however is for it too dry out – this is the last race on the card meaning it will have a full day of settled weather. A high draw over 8f at Haydock is a big advantage when conditions are slow and dropped to a Class 3 handicap if the ground remains soft he has an outstanding chance to outclass this field.
Early on Friday morning the ground was Soft Good to Soft in places and with warm summer temperatures now expected it looks certain to dry out to be Good by the time of the last race on Saturday.
Under those conditions I doubt Eternal Force will run – but would be a no bet if allowed to take his chance again at a short price of 10/3.
No Bet Recommended
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 6:15 Salisbury Great Dream
First time since being gelded, first run for Somerville Lodge is a recipe for a horse to improve and win races. There has to be a degree of caution as Great Dream is a horse that pulled hard – the gelding operation could resolve that issue. However Haggas rarely runs his handicappers at Salisbury and his record is 4 from 10 over the last 10 years.
Harry Davies would have ridden the 4yo when trained by Simon Crisford which is a bonus. The Haggas record at Salisbury overall especially in May is exceptional with 8 winners from 14 in the last 10 years and a remarkable 7 from 9 since 2023. It’s too good to ignore as is his record with horses joining Somerville Lodge from other yards.
1.5pt win Bet Great Dream 6.15 Salisbury
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 7:15 Salisbury Almeraq
Harry Davies gets a great ride on the 4yo who thankfully is fully recovered from his traumatic fall at York last autumn. If the ground is on the fast side of good I would be pretty sure he will be withdrawn as he needs cut in the ground. As a 3yo he was beaten at odds on racing on quick ground at Yarmouth. He will need this run and at short odds I will watch without a bet. I hope he wins well and then heads for Group 2 and 1 races. Almeraq is considered a better horse than the same connections Elmonjed the Group 2 York winner.
No Bet Recommended.
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 8:00 Windsor Proposal
On a busy exciting day for Somerville Lodge that kicks off at 2.20 and extends through to 8.30 at Windsor Proposal goes into handicap company off a workable mark of 77. The ground will be fast at Windsor which will suit her but Proposal hasn’t looked entirely straight forward and there are couple of fast improving 3yo’s in this contest. The draw in 7 is also not ideal and the Haggas track record with 3yo’s in handicaps at the track in May and June is 1-12 which reaffirms the decision not to back Proposal
No Bet Recommended
- Saturday, 23 May 2026 – 8:30 Windsor Keep it Classic
Keep the Classic improved significantly last time out at Haydock stepped up in trip in a class 6 handicap at Haydock Park beaten a short head by the Ceiren Fallon ridden Salkadan who gave Dan Skelton his first winner on the flat.
The ground was on the soft side of good that afternoon and the fast ground will be a step into the unknown on Saturday evening but his dam relished it.
If that’s the case he should go very close and improve the Haggas record at the track and end a busy day on a winning note.
Recommended Bet Keep it Classic 0.5pt win 8.30 Windsor
Summary: 14 runners on Saturday at the time of writing but a combination of fast ground and short prices restrict the bets to 3 in total.
Nap Earth Shot 3.10 Goodwood – NB Great Dream 6.15 Salisbury NNB Keep it Classic 8.30 Windsor.
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