Somerville Lodge have 6 runners on Monday, although Ceiren Fallon takes a day off. It follows a complete mess of a day on Saturday with 8 of the intended 14 runners not going to post. The weekend was frustrating for the yard – it began with Santorini Star Thursday evening who was pipped in the Group 1 at Longchamp and was followed by Division and Earth Shot occupying the runners up spot in valuable races on Saturday.
Our main bet Earth Shot was caught for speed in a slowly run Height Of Fashion stakes where Saffie Osborne on Inis Mor got first run on Tom Marquand and Earth Shot couldn’t claw back the deficit and went down by a head. She remains a filly with potential to win Group races.
Our only other bet Great Dream had a very troubled passage at Salisbury and wasn’t seen to best effect – there will be another day for him.
As always though the cream comes to the top – and it duly did with Almeraq who despite not liking the quick conditions got all the breaks, ridden for luck up the stands rail and with Spy Chief throwing the race away he gave the yard a welcome winner on the day at a huge price of 7/2 with plenty of 4/1 on offer.
Connections have consistently said how good this horse is and on softer going he would have been a 6/4 chance on Saturday evening – given ease in the ground he will be a serious contender in all the top Group races over 6f this season. It was great to see him back
The importance of being selective was highlighted by the very short price of Proposal at Windsor. We warned of the potential pitfalls of backing this filly and so it proved as she gave Harry Burns a very uncomfortable ride when well beaten as the 6/4 favourite.
A disappointing couple of days but the Sky Majesty running was of course very unfortunate and Earth Shot really should have won.
The two winners for Somerville Lodge over Friday and Saturday were both thought to better for the race and although it looks likely to be a quiet week the yard remain in good form.
The six runners on Monday make little appeal from a betting perspective. Four run in maiden races and our advice not to get involved in these when backing Haggas horses continues to be correct. Several followers I know lay them if they are 4/1 or less and they are cleaning up. The Haggas tax has been heavily added to the early prices on Monday and the two in handicaps where I thought the Haggas pair would be 8/1 and 10/1 have been put in at 4/1 and 9/2.
Romanticizing and Venetion Lion both run in the 4.22 at Redcar. Romanticizing is the best chance of a winner on the day for the yard and is a short price at 5/4. Venetian Lion is 16/1 and there seems no reason to make an exception to my no bet in Novice and Maiden rule.
No Bet Recommended
Sea Canary makes her debut in the 15.18 at Windsor, it’s a poor race and she could win but only if there is nothing of any quality in the race. The fact that she is 6/4 favourite indicates this is a winnable opportunity even given the lack of experience she will bring into the contest but at 6/4 I will watch.
No Bet Recommended
Same rules apply to Adalo in the Leicester 14.29 who should be watched without backing – she is 13/2 and likely to drift.
No Bet Recommended.
The two in handicaps are First Principle for Tom Marquand at Windsor and Divine Knight who has his first run for the yard in the Zetland Gold Cup ridden by Sam Burns at Redcar.
First Principle has major questions to answer after a complete no show at York and is up 2f in the Windsor 16.25 Class 3 10f handicap. He has a tendency to pull hard which could be a major problem over the extra distance.
This looks to be something of an experiment and the 4yo gelding is not a betting proposition, until he shows a marked up turn in form from his last 2 runs. I thought the 4/1 price as the joint favourite would drift but it’s been backed into 2/1 . Someone must have seen something that I have missed but on the information I have the gamble makes no sense.
Divine Knight has a tough task on stable debut under Harry Burns in the Zetland Gold Cup and we will know more about him after the race. Because its William Haggas taking over the training the bookies have ran scared and the 4/1 looks way too short.
No Bets Recommended
Summary
A possibility that one or two winners will come from the 4 maidens running on Monday but backing the Haggas 3yo’s in maidens and novices is pretty much a guarantee to make a loss each season. A No BET DAY
REFA Hagtag 2026.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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