As we reach Day 3 of the 12 day transition period between the Curragh Guineas festival and the start of the Epsom Derby meeting betting opportunities continue to be sporadic.
Another day another win for Somerville Lodge on Tuesday Hoseki took advantage of a reluctant Cape Fear at Redcar to win at 11/8.
Also another day with a losing short priced favourite. Wefaadd was beaten at 1/5 on in a poor Lingfield maiden as I suggested may happen when he couldn’t get on the stands rail and take advantage of the ‘Golden Highway’ at that track.
Luminare, also as suggested, was equally inconvenienced by the track being a hold up horse and his run can be ignored.
Only two for the yard on Wednesday at Kempton’s AW meeting where the stable win ratio is around 20% at this period in the year.
Time Loop runs in the class 3 handicap at 20.30 following a break of 131 days. She is well bred and having won her novice the sole purpose of keeping her in training as a 5yo is to gain Black Type.
She needs to improve significantly as she is currently rated just 86. However, in three weeks time she has been given an entry in the Munster Oaks a Group 3 contest alongside stablemate Finalise also rated 86 who was strongly fancied to win at Goodwood on Saturday only to be withdrawn due to fast ground.
The run on Wednesday looks to have been planned to see if Time Loop stays 12f which realistically will be her best chance of gaining valuable black type. From the evidence of her 5 runs so far, that is probably unlikely over 10f.
There is enough on her ‘page’ to suggest that there is a good chance she will stay and improve for the step up in trip.
Her form behind Rastnet at Chelmsford , who was in receipt of 9lb, in a race she should have won comfortably, reads well now. Rastnet has risen from 75 to 86 and his form ties in with one of her main rivals at Kempton Alther Walden.who beat Rastnet just over 2L.
Rastnet was giving 3lb to Alther Walden and on Wednesday Time Loop and Alther Walden race at level weights.
The draw in 2 will force Tom Marquand to ride her close to the pace – she is a reasonable price for a Haggas horse around 7/1 early prices – but the evidence of her last run at Newcastle sways me away from backing her.
She wore a hood to post and was noticeably sweating before the off on what was a cold winters afternoon. Conditions will be the complete reverse at Kempton and like her stablemate Dramatic Star in the same ownership she may get stressed over racing. These attributes do not align with the possibility of staying an extra 2f and I will not be investing.
No Recommended Bet Time Loop 8.30 Kempton.
The other runner is Masked Warrior in the 7.00pm who badly needed the run on his seasonal debut at Leicester 14 days ago. He went off at 11/8 and was disappointing. The fact he runs again so quickly in another Novice indicates that he will also improve for this run and although he will be one of the market leaders he is one to wait for in handicaps down the line.
Summary
The Haggas staying handicappers have been a rich source of profit this season but logic suggests Time Loop has it all to do to follow in their hoof-prints.
A quiet betting week so far with a couple of short priced winners keeping the yard ticking over but overall our No Bet policy since Saturday has been the correct approach.
From Thursday through to Sunday there look to be some good bets each day.
REFA HAG TAG
Chrysalis Consortium 
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