The quiet start to the week went pretty much as planned at Windsor on Monday, where Bayaann duly landed the odds in workmanlike fashion. The race looked to me as though it was designed to find out how much natural speed Bayaann possesses; connections discovered that although he is by no means slow, it will be over 10f that he excels. Tom set slow fractionals and only quickened up inside the last three furlongs, and it was his class and stamina that enabled him to win for the second time in three outings.
The form of his previous run at Newmarket was boosted 30 minutes later when Cuff It (beaten 8L) won over 10f. That form ties in with Cyrano De Bergerac and Knights Vision, who will both be rated 80+.
There is a possibility that Bayaann may be entered in the Golden Gates next Saturday at Royal Ascot, or more likely the John Smith’s Cup (14/1 Ante-Post), and he will be a serious contender in either.
Indhaar ran really well on debut in the Cuff It race and has all the makings of an improver for the yard over staying trips. Three-year-old handicaps over 12f plus are likely to be targeted as the season progresses.
Finally, Kahin was another horse ridden to find out his best trip, and he also ran well despite lacking the class of Bayaann or Indhaar. He was runner-up behind the highly regarded Cockade and will also benefit from a step up to 10f.
Wednesday Runners
Yimmna in the 2.48 at Yarmouth is the yard’s only runner on Wednesday. She is from the family of French Group 1-winning filly Aventura and is likely to need the experience on her debut. The race also features the debut of John and Thady Gosden’s very well-bred filly, Starlight Lass; it is a race to watch with the future in mind. They are both around 5/2 in the overnight markets.
Thursday Analysis & Bets
Thursday features the next horses from the yard that present betting opportunities. However, before moving onto the bet, two unraced horses catch the eye at Newbury.
We have already discussed the interest surrounding Al Sayed, the first son of Baaeed to be trained by William Haggas. The extended 6f maiden at 2.20 has been selected for his initial run. As always with Newbury maidens, there is a strong field of well-bred juveniles lining up. Drawn out wide in Stall 2, it is not an ideal setup for a debut run, and he should just be watched for the future.
The same “watch only / no bet” brief applies to Manaar, the half-sister to Dubai Honour, who makes a belated start to her career in the 3yo Fillies’ Novice Stakes over 9f at 4.40.
Nottingham 4.17 – 14f Handicap
Onto the first betting opportunity of the week: top of the list is the rapidly improving three-year-old Caraway. She has been given multiple entries since her first win over 12f, where she improved on an unlucky Wolverhampton run to score on the turf at Thirsk. That race looked tougher than Thursday’s assignment at Nottingham, where she has to carry top weight in the hands of Cieren Fallon.
Significantly, she remains in Class 6 and is upped in trip to 14f. Her dam, Sorrel, ran her best race the only time she competed over 15f when landing a Listed race on the All-Weather at Lingfield. Also significant is the fact that the ground will be on the soft side of good, as fast ground would be a negative.
The opposition does not include anything likely to show significant improvement. While she won’t be a massive price, I don’t think she will be “silly short” like Poetry of Time was at Chepstow on Saturday.
Caraway 2pt Bet Recommended
Nottingham 3.08 – 4-Runner Maiden
Fallon should get Somerville Lodge off to a winning start at Nottingham with Fractional, who looks to have been found an easy opportunity. She has shaped with promise in all three outings to date, and it will be disappointing if she cannot break her maiden tag against three modest rivals—albeit at what will be restrictive odds.
Fractional No Bet Recommended – Price too Short
Newbury Runners
Luminare and Consecrated accompany the two unraced horses to the Berkshire track. Both can be described as underachievers so far in their careers.
Newbury Thursday – 1m Class 5 Handicap
Luminare was transferred to Somerville Lodge after being purchased by Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktoum out of Ollie Sangster’s yard as a twice-raced two-year-old. She was heavily backed on her yard debut at Windsor when Tom rode her as though she was a smart filly, but she failed to pick up when asked.
She has won over 7f under a masterful Cieren Fallon ride at Newcastle in a very slowly run race. However, it is her run in a Class 4 handicap over 8f at Lingfield—where she split two well-regarded colts in Space Invasion and Sovereign Wealth—that gives her a chance on Thursday.
She drops down to Class 5 for her first run over a mile on the turf, which follows an “okay” effort over 7f at Lingfield last time out when she couldn’t quicken and looked in need of the outing. That performance confirmed that 8f rather than 7f is required for her to show her best. The handicapper has dropped her 1lb, meaning she races off a mark of 73—just 2lb above her winning mark at Newcastle.
This is a fiercely competitive contest, with all 11 runners showing form good enough to win. Literally every runner can be given a solid chance. Given the tight nature of the race, Luminare’s draw in Stall 2 looks like a potential negative and is enough to stop me from getting involved financially.
Luminare No bet Recommended
Newbury 3.30 – Class 3 Handicap
Consecrated has proved exasperating since winning over 7f at Newbury on her debut, after which she was pitched into Listed company in the Michael Seely at York’s Dante meeting. That proved too big a step up in class, and she has only shown glimpses of promise in her five subsequent outings.
To be fair to the daughter of Frankel, those runs spanned trips ranging from 1m to 1m 6f. She now races back in Class 3 handicap company having attempted to gain black type in Listed company on her last two outings. One of those was her seasonal debut in the infamous “Friendly Soul” drain-hole race at Haydock. She was ridden from the front that day in what looked like a fact-finding mission.
The decision to return to 7f at Newbury—over the course and distance of her debut victory—looks significant. It appears connections feel she has inherited the speed shown by her half-sister, Sacred, rather than stamina through her sire, Frankel. The owners at Cheveley Park Stud rarely persist with fillies in training who lack the potential to secure black type, so this has the feel of the “last-chance saloon.”
She will be a big price, and the decision to head for this race (her only entry over the past 14 days) offers more than a ray of hope. The major issue is the ground; with 6.0mm of rain forecast at the course on raceday, it is simply not advisable to back Consecrated on ground with “Soft” in the description. Everything on both sides of her pedigree suggests good or fast ground is vital. Unless Newbury misses the downpours, I cannot back her. Should the rain fail to materialize as forecast, I will confirm betting details on Thursday afternoon.
Consecrated No bet Recommended – Subject to Ground Conditions.
Consecrated bids to repeat her Course and Distance win at Newbury on Thursday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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