The horses ran as expected on Thursday although Manaar caused a surprise defying a huge drift out to 8/1 to beat the short priced favourite Miss Scott. They look two very nice future black type fillies.
The ground at Nottingham on a dreadful wet afternoon proved just to soft for our only bet on Caraway who gave her all but could only finish third.
For followers of William Haggas, the flat season proper, effectively starts this weekend and extends through to October. Never one to rush his horses, Haggas does capitalize on spring opportunities when they arise—such as this year’s rare attempt at landing the Derby with Maltese Cross. Ultimately, however, Royal Ascot is the first major target of the season , and the rest of the campaign pans out from there.
The weekend before Ascot consistently throws up competitive, high-value handicaps that attract the attention of the Somerville Lodge team. This year is no exception, but we can utilize several perhaps surprising statistics to pinpoint the best betting opportunities.
Firstly, of the three premier tracks staging fixtures this Friday and Saturday, Sandown significantly outperforms York and Chester in terms of strike rate (winners-to-runners) during June and July. Because any Haggas horse with a live chance is inevitably backed, these statistics focus exclusively on runners sent off first, second, or third in the betting market.
Over the past 12 years, the stable’s June/July handicap record at Sandown stands at an impressive 16-from-48. By comparison, the record at York is 12-from-41, and at Chester, it drops to just 2-from-20.
Jockey bookings also offer a vital clue. Over the past five years, Tom Marquand has held first choice of where to ride on this pre-Ascot weekend. Across those 10 days of racing, he chose to ride at York just once, compared to nine times at Sandown. In total, Marquand’s five-year record at Sandown in handicaps aboard Haggas runners sent off 1-2-3 in the market is 4-from-8.
Another key factor is timing: mid-June is typically when the stable’s slow-maturing three-year-olds are ready for handicaps, often starting from low, exploitable ratings.
Over the last five years on this specific weekend, 38 Haggas runners met our 1-2-3 market criteria across the three tracks, producing nine winners. Crucially, only one of those winners scored off a rating of 87 or higher: Archivist last year, who won off 90 as a self-evident “handicap blot” on the solitary day Marquand chose to go to York. The other 14 qualifiers rated 87 or higher all lost. Conversely, the record for qualifiers rated 86 or lower is 8-from-24, which improves to a remarkable 6-from-10 if you lower the threshold to a rating of 80 or below.
This trends-based analysis gives us an excellent blueprint for Friday and Saturday. Despite Haggas appearing to have fewer obvious chances at the Surrey venue than at York, Marquand heads to Sandown on both days.
The clear sign that the stable are ready to fire on all cylinders is confirmed by the fact that the 8 runners on Friday and Saturday all feature in handicaps. There is just one at Chester (Saturday) three at York and four at Sandown.
Overall, the Haggas-Marquand partnership in Sandown handicaps from June to the end of the season boasts an impressive 11-from-33 (33%) record across all runners over the past five years. That strike rate climbs to 40% (10-from-25) when focusing strictly on horses in the first three in the betting.
Ultimately, the two-day fixtures at Sandown and York marks the first time this season where our betting strategy is determined just as much by historical trends and market signals as it is by raw form.
On Friday Marquand rides a couple for Haggas at Sandown with both fitting the profile of being rated lower than 80 which if going off 1-2-3 in the market hits the 60% winning trend statistic.
Carbine Harvester in the 2.13 5f handicap, is now weighted to show he can bring his AW form to Turf. The soft ground will be a slight question mark but the only time he encountered it was on his second run as a 2yo when he finished in front of Double Rush !! Drawn wide in stall 8 (no longer an issue at Sandown) and his early pace should allow Tom to dictate the race.
The gelding’s run behind Another Abbot at Yarmouth was his best on Turf so far and the handicapper generously dropped him another 1lb. The runner up boosted the form when winning easily at Yarmouth yesterday. On Friday he faces a bunch of well exposed sprinters and is worth a bet in a race at a big price having proved her effectiveness on the turf last time out.
Recommended Bet 0.25pt ew Carbine Harvester 2.13 Sandown Friday – 12/1
Al Maslool has been gelded and wears blinkers for the first time in the Class 4 10f handicap at 3.58 . On breeding this trip looks far enough and his rating of 71 looks fair at best on his 4 runs to date, although his 3rd place finish on his second outing beaten just one length behind Folk Pageant and Constant Star looks strong form
In a field that comprises three other 3yo handicap debutants I suspect he will not be among the three market leaders and I will only get involved if there is significant market support including close to the off.
No Bet Recommended
As per the historic trends the yard send a single runner to York and do not have any at Chester.
Great Dream has his second run for the yard at York in the opening 7f Apprentice handicap at 1.50. Once again Somerville Lodge has had no luck with the draw and stall 18 of in the field of 21 is a major hurdle for Harry Burns to overcome.
Previously trained by the Crisfords he ran with promise at Salisbury on his first run for the yard. Hopefully he runs well again and we can look towards backing him when he next appears.
No Bet Recommended.
Saturday features the handicap debuts of three very useful 3yo’s Masked Warrior off 89, Extremely Zain off 93 and Thunder Call off 84, all are pitched straight into class 2 and 3 company
First up is Masked Warrior in the 2.10 at Chester. Harry Davies takes the ride on the wide margin Kempton winner and is well drawn in stall 3.
My feeling on that performance was that Tom Marquand got a soft lead and the rest of the field were racing for handicap marks. Masked Warrior got put up a hefty 8lb for the win and I think that is harsh. Many people thought otherwise hence his opening price of 3/1 – but I am happy to stay with my initial thoughts and let him run unbacked.
No Bet Recommended
Extremely Zain has been a big ‘talking horse’ since his stunning win at Newcastle on debut. He backed that up with a less impressive win at Newbury hanging badly under pressure.
William Haggas immediately said he thought ‘a handicap route’ would be next and he is put in the deep end in this all age Class 3 handicap the 2.25 at York on Saturday. He has been smashed in the early markets from 6/1 to 3/1 which is no surprise given the reputation that he brings into the race.
It is possible that he could be develop into a 100+ colt- he has been given entries in the Banbury Cup and the Sussex Stakes – I do though have doubts after the manner of his last win.
He is drawn poorly in stall 15 and is unproven on fast ground. This trip may also prove on the sharp side and there are sufficient doubts at the short price to cause me to leave him alone for betting purposes.
I think he is a horse that will bolt up by 5L or fall out the back of the television. I wouldn’t back against him nor would I lay him.
No Bet Recommended
Thunder Call runs lines up in the days feature race the 6f Churchill Tyres handicap at 3.35. The top young Australian jockey Zac Lloyd has been booked to ride off 8-5. That looks a very fair mark given the impressive Kempton win.
The Haggas record in Class 2 and 3 handicaps over the past 5 years with horses carrying 8-7 or less backed into the first 3 in the market is 12 from 30 which has convinced me to have an each way bet, especially with 6 places on offer.
Recommended Bet 0.50pt EW 1-6 places 13/2
Over at Sandown the best bet of the day is High Degree in the 1m Class 2 handicap at 3.17.
The 4yo was backed as though defeat was out of the question on seasonal debut at Newbury. We didn’t get involved as at the time the Somerville Lodge horses were generally needing the run.
He did everything wrong pulling too hard and looked sure to be well beaten. However he still found plenty under pressure and was only beaten by a well handicapped horse in Hand of God.
The draw in stall 4 is ideal and the main danger and favourite Beagle Bay is up 8lb for a win in Class 4 is in Stall 2 and should give High Degree a good tow into the race.
He could have headed to Royal Ascot and the Hunt Cup but this is a big prize and a much more winnable race.
2pt win Recommended Bet High Degree 3.17 Sandown
The final runner on an excellent day is Crown Office in the 7f handicap at 3.55. He ran no sort of race when fancied at Newbury on his first run this season and although he could bounce back – it has stuck in my mind that he was given a really hard race on his 2yo debut and after the first run as a 3yo I have doubts that he has trained on- so will leave him alone.
No Bet Recommended
Summary Friday and Saturday
Friday 0.25pt ew Carbine Harvester 12/1 2.13 Sandown Friday
Saturday 2pt win High Degree 3.17 Sandown Saturday
Saturday 0.5pt ew 3.35 York Thunder Call Saturday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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