For followers of William Haggas, the flat season proper, effectively starts this weekend and extends through to October. Never one to rush his horses, Haggas does capitalize on spring opportunities when they arise—such as this year’s rare attempt at landing the Derby with Maltese Cross. Ultimately, however, Royal Ascot is the first major target of the season , and the rest of the campaign pans out from there.
The weekend before Ascot consistently throws up competitive, high-value handicaps that attract the attention of the Somerville Lodge team. This year is no exception,
The clear sign that the stable are ready to fire on all cylinders is confirmed by the fact that the 8 runners on Friday and Saturday all feature in handicaps. There is just one at Chester (Saturday) three at York and four at Sandown.
Overall, the Haggas-Marquand partnership in Sandown handicaps from June to the end of the season boasts an impressive 11-from-33 (33%) record across all runners over the past five years. That strike rate climbs to 40% (10-from-25) when focusing strictly on horses in the first three in the betting.
Ultimately, the two-day fixtures at Sandown and York marks the first time this season where our betting strategy is determined just as much by historical trends and market signals as it is by raw form
Saturday features the handicap debuts of three very useful 3yo’s Masked Warrior off 89, Extremely Zain off 93 and Thunder Call off 84, all are pitched straight into class 2 and 3 company
First up is Masked Warrior in the 2.10 at Chester. Harry Davies takes the ride on the wide margin Kempton winner and is well drawn in stall 3.
My feeling on that performance was that Tom Marquand got a soft lead and the rest of the field were racing for handicap marks. Masked Warrior got put up a hefty 8lb for the win and I think that is harsh. Many people thought otherwise hence his opening price of 3/1 – but I am happy to stay with my initial thoughts and let him run unbacked.
No Bet Recommended
Extremely Zain has been a big ‘talking horse’ since his stunning win at Newcastle on debut. He backed that up with a less impressive win at Newbury hanging badly under pressure.
William Haggas immediately said he thought ‘a handicap route’ would be next and he is put in the deep end in this all age Class 3 handicap the 2.25 at York on Saturday. He has been smashed in the early markets from 6/1 to 9/4 which is no surprise given the reputation that he brings into the race.
It is possible that he could be develop into a 100+ colt- he has been given entries in the Banbury Cup and the Sussex Stakes – I do though have doubts after the manner of his last win.
He is drawn poorly in stall 15 and is unproven on fast ground. This trip may also prove on the sharp side and there are sufficient doubts at the short price to cause me to leave him alone for betting purposes.
I think he is a horse that will bolt up by 5L or fall out the back of the television. I wouldn’t back against him nor would I lay him.
No Bet Recommended
Thunder Call runs lines up in the days feature race the 6f Churchill Tyres handicap at 3.35. The top young Australian jockey Zac Lloyd has been booked to ride off 8-5. That looks a very fair mark given the impressive Kempton win.
The Haggas record in Class 2 and 3 handicaps over the past 5 years with horses carrying 8-7 or less backed into the first 3 in the market is 12 from 30 which has convinced me to have an each way bet, especially with 6 places on offer.
Recommended Bet 0.50pt EW 1-6 places
Over at Sandown the best bet of the day is High Degree in the 1m Class 2 handicap at 3.17.
The 4yo was backed as though defeat was out of the question on seasonal debut at Newbury. We didn’t get involved as at the time the Somerville Lodge horses were generally needing the run.
He did everything wrong pulling too hard and looked sure to be well beaten. However he still found plenty under pressure and was only beaten by a well handicapped horse in Hand of God.
The draw in stall 4 is ideal and the main danger and favourite Beagle Bay is up 8lb for a win in Class 4 is in Stall 2 and should give High Degree a good tow into the race.
He could have headed to Royal Ascot and the Hunt Cup but this is a big prize and a much more winnable race.
2pt win Recommended Bet High Degree 3.17 Sandown
The final runner on an excellent day is Crown Office in the 7f handicap at 3.55. He ran no sort of race when fancied at Newbury on his first run this season and although he could bounce back – it has stuck in my mind that he was given a really hard race on his 2yo debut and after the first run as a 3yo I have doubts that he has trained on- so will leave him alone.
No Bet Recommended
Summary
Saturday 2pt win High Degree 3.17 Sandown Saturday
Saturday 0.5pt ew 3.35 York Thunder Call Saturday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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