One of the key factors in enjoying a profitable Royal Ascot is distinguishing horses that have been trained to a meticulous plan to win a big prize from those that—even when owned by multi-millionaires—are merely “social runners.”
I have prepared this article for Day 2 of the meeting before Tuesday’s results are known. Let us hope that our two bets on the opening day have already put us in front for the week. Our first intended bet on Another Abbot on Monday was a non-runner, as the colt was unfortunately found to have a temperature.
As we mentioned over the weekend, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will be relatively quiet for the William Haggas team compared to Tuesday and the main “big” day on Saturday with Lake Forest, Saber Strike, Binhareer and Bayaann of considerable interest.
5.00 Royal Ascot – Hunt Cup The first Somerville Lodge runner on Wednesday lines up in the Hunt Cup at 5:00 pm. The 30 runners are headed by Holloway Boy off a mark of 112, down to the only Haggas entry to make the cut, Scoville, who squeezes into the race off 98.
It will be a remarkable training feat if Haggas can get the four-year-old back to the level that saw him sent off as the 4/5 odds-on favorite for a Group 3 contest in Deauville last August. Mentally, that race was too much for him; in his two subsequent runs, there has not been even a glimmer of hope that the immense potential he showed when winning a Newmarket maiden by 12 lengths can be fulfilled.
Badly drawn in stall 9, the only logical conclusion from a gambling perspective—given the unique pressure that comes with this meeting—is that Scoville given his mentality is highly unlikely to perform to the level of his first two career starts. His current price of 10/1 is probably the poorest value of any Haggas runner this week. Furthermore, Somerville Lodge has not trained a winner of the Hunt Cup since Yeast in 1996.
All the market leaders have been handed difficult draws: Indalo (8), Holloway Boy (4), and La Botte (5), with Linwood only marginally better off in stall 16. I expect a significant reshuffle in the market leading up to the off. It would be ironic if the former Haggas trained Archivist who was involved in the balloting out debacle in 2025 where to capture the prize.
Verdict: No Bet Recommended.
5.35 Royal Ascot – Kensington Palace Stakes The next heavily supported ante-post favorite from the yard, Alobayyah, runs in the Kensington Palace Stakes at 5:35 pm. She is joined by stablemates Rhapsody and Seren Star.
I have always found it strange that this race, apart from being restricted to fillies and mares, is almost identical to the Hunt Cup and yet is scheduled as the very next race on the card.
On the plus side, all three Haggas runners have been fortunate with the draw in this 25-runner field. Rhapsody (25) has bagged the stands’ rail, while Seren Star (18) and Alobayyah (16) are also well positioned.
Alobayyah currently heads the market at 5/1. She was a massive eye-catcher on her seasonal debut over this course. Last season, Tom Marquand named her his “Horse to Follow,” but she was never entirely “right” and merely went through the motions in her two runs during the second half of 2025.
Now running off a mark of 90, she receives over a stone from top-weight Stateira, who features alongside her at the head of the market. By Ghaiyyath, she will appreciate a strong pace on fast ground and certainly has the potential to outrun her mark.
However, she lacks experience in big-field handicaps, and the downside to her promising run in May is that she has still yet to be asked a serious question in her four career starts. The 5/1 looks skinny considering it is roughly the same price as More Thunder and Opportunity.
This season, I have backed three fillies where there was a question mark over their experience in coping with demanding race conditions: Lilt (twice—won once at 9/1, but was unplaced in Sunday’s Prix de Diane), Darzah (unplaced in a Class 4 Sandown handicap), and Earth Shot (second in a Listed race at Goodwood). The Kensington Palace is a severe test of a filly’s mentality, and given that horses from this yard have yet to feature prominently in this race, I have decided to let her run unbacked.
Rhapsody, on the other hand, has been specifically aimed at this race since the spring. Her initial target was the Snowdrop at Kempton, but she wasn’t ready for that contest and makes her seasonal debut here.
The draw in stall 25 is a massive bonus. Like Alobayyah, she is by Ghaiyyath and is likely to improve with age. After disappointing in the early part of her three-year-old career, she came good on her final outing at York, winning impressively in a competitive York handicap over nine furlongs in a very good time. That win was on Good to Soft but generally the progeny of Ghaiyyath excel on fast ground and Rhapsody could well have scope for improvement on fast round. She is fairly handicapped off her current rating of 92.
Available at around 20/1 with six places on offer, she rates a much better value bet than her 5/1 stablemate.
Finally, Seren Star was flattered by her win at Ascot last season and remains badly handicapped as a result.
Recommended Bet: 0.25pts e/w Rhapsody (5.35 Ascot) – 1-6 places.
Midweek Regional Action: Ffos Las & Ripon
Three other stable runners are in action on Wednesday evening at Ffos Las and Ripon.
7.15 Ffos Las – Class 4 Handicap (7f) Great Dream is turned out quickly in the 7:15 at Ffos Las, just five days after running in the 20-runner apprentice handicap that opened York’s card on Friday.
This entry was made before the four-year-old ran with credit at York, where he was beaten just over four lengths after an awkward start and becoming boxed in at a critical time. The form was given an instant boost by the runner-up, Lir Special, who ran a terrific race behind Extremely Zain just 24 hours later.
Wednesday’s race is only the third outing for Great Dream under the Haggas stewardship. The choice of venue is highly significant: he will be only the second runner from Somerville Lodge to contest a handicap at the Welsh track since 2017 (the other, Mamma Maria, was successful last summer). Since 2019, across all races at Ffos Las, the yard boasts an incredible 70% strike rate, with 7 winners from 10 runners.
Recommended Bet: 2pt win Great Dream (7.15 Ffos Las).
8.15 Ffos Las – Fillies’ Maiden (10f) Those statistics also bring us to Evening Fades, who runs at 8:15 pm and aims to give owner-breeder James Wigan a small degree of compensation for Lilt just missing out on Group 1 black type on Sunday.
By Ulysses, she should appreciate the step up to a ten-furlong trip. In both of her career runs, she has been asked to make the running, and the form is comparable at best with two others in the field. This is a case of a filly where there is simply too much guesswork involved in assessing her chances. While she may well win, I would rather see evidence of her true ability before getting financially involved.
That was the case with the maidens, Adola and Venetian Sky on Sunday and Monday both showed improved levels of form to suggest they will be winning in the near future.
Verdict: No Bet Recommended.
7.00 Ripon – Class 4 Handicap (12f) Winter Flower is sent to Ripon with the opportunity to prove she has trained on as a four-year-old. She runs in the hands of Jason Hart for owner Abdulla Al Khalifa, who recorded a major success with Thunder Call on Saturday.
There are several arguments for and against backing the filly on Wednesday. On the negative side, she has to prove she acts at Ripon—a unique track that can be extremely difficult for some horses to handle. This is a highly relevant factor, as there are two previous course winners in the lineup who like to win from the front, a tactic that is notoriously successful at the Garden Racecourse.
On the positive side, a strong pace will help her settle, and the 12-furlong trip should suit her perfectly. Her recent run at Haydock over ten furlongs was heavily compromised by being drawn widest of all in stall 10. Tom Marquand had to burn plenty of petrol to secure a position alongside the winner, her 2nd furlong was the fastest of the race by any of the runners who made all from stall 1. Empire of Light followed up in a Class3 at Thirsk off a 4lb higher mark
At the time, the Haggas horses were generally lacking peak fitness and needing their runs; she was given a very easy final two furlongs by Marquand, finishing beaten just over nine lengths.
The form of that race has worked out well since, with not only the winner defying a penalty but the fourth-placed horse, Cavolo Nero, won next time out at Yarmouth. Furthermore, the form of Winter Flower’s December run in a Class 2 handicap on the All-Weather at Lingfield is strong, and she races on Wednesday 2lb lower off a mark of 80.
On balance, the only real concern is whether she will handle the undulations of the track. Given Haggas’s stellar record at Ripon—his last four runners of 2025 all won—she is well worthy of financial interest.
Recommended Bet: 1pt win Winter Flower (7.00 Ripon).
Summary of Recommended Bets
- 0.25pts e/w Rhapsody – 5.35 Royal Ascot (1-6 places)
- 2pt win Great Dream – 7.15 Ffos Las
- 1pt win Winter Flower – 7.00 Ripon
Hunt Cup Feature on Day 2 at Ascot
Chrysalis Consortium 
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