Friday Filly thrown in.

Day 4 of Ascot and it is true to say the results for most of the first couple of days had been hard to take for Somerville Lodge followers. Scoville ran a huge race in the Hunt Cup and led to inside the final furlong before his refusal to settle and the draw cost him a place eventually finishing 7th.

Then as always happens with Somerville Lodge the mood quickly turned around with a remarkable 1st, 3rd and 4th in the Kensington Palace Stakes.

Our bet Rhapsody (advised EW at 18/1) was a shade unlucky having had a troubled passage, finishing best of all but gave us a nice return, which was important as we let the winner run unbacked.

It was followed by our 2pt bet on Great Dream who improved the Haggas record at Ffos Las to 8 from 11 since 2019 winning by half the track having been backed from 10/3 to 5/4.

The mood earlier in the day had darkened when Opportunity was given stall 1 in Fridays Duke of Edinburgh.

A low draw over 12f is a huge disadvantage at Royal Ascot in both the Duke of Edinburgh and the King George V handicap. In the last 12 years in both races Stall 4 once in each race is the lowest that has won. A double digit draw has been successful in 16 of the 24 runnings. As a result James Doyle has got off Opportunity and will ride George Boughey’s Hopewell Rock for Wathnan Racing.

The early market with the ‘Haggas tax’ still added has Opportunity still around 5/1 that will not be the case at the off, and he may easily go off at 7/1 or bigger. I expect there to be a massive gamble on the royal runner Warrant Holder who has drawn stall 17.

15.40 Ascot Friday Opportunity No Bet Recommended.

The decision to re-route Saber Strike from the Commonwealth Cup to the Jersey Stakes on Saturday for which he is 13/8 favorite was partially made because of the improved homework of Division on Newmarket Heath.

He did not get the best track position when smashed by Venetian Sun at Haydock and there is a realistic expectation that it will be much closer on Friday. That optimism would have increased by the win of Mission Central in the King Charles who had form with Division. In this case the draw could favour Division on the far side in stall 3. For some reason low numbers seem to fair well in the Commonwealth Cup the last 4 winners have been drawn 1,4,1 and 1.

You need everything to be spot on and a stroke of luck to win the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup and Division must have a chance of causing an upset. Venetian Sun though was ultra impressive at Haydock and as a previous course and distance winner will take all the beating.

15.05 Ascot Friday Division No Bet Recommended.

In the Sandringham fillies handicap over 1m Zooming is given a chance to prove she has the stamina to win at the trip having been short of speed when dropped down to 6f on her last outing at Goodwood having ran with promise over 7f in the Fred Darling at Newbury.

Her mark of 96 looks high enough and she has an each way chance of giving what hopefully will be a double on the day for her owners Ian and Christine Beard. However, this is another 30 runner maximum field of largely unexposed 3yo fillies and is not a sensible betting opportunity.

Zooming 17.00 Friday No Bet Recommended

20 minutes earlier at Redcar the colours of the Beard family should be seen in the winners enclosure with Guesstimate first time in handicap company in the 10f handicap at 16.40

I thought she was a huge eye-catcher at Goodwood on her last run over this trip. She settled better than in her previous races and travelled really well throughout the race. She made up 3 or 4 lengths over a 1f out before flattening out inside the final furlong to be beaten just over a length.

Her opening mark of 72 looks more than fair and she is well drawn in stall 4. This looks competitive but that should mean for once we get decent odds, with Jason Hart in the saddle who has a great strike rate for Somerville Lodge and the Haggas record is unsurprisingly good at the track.

Providing she continues to settle in the first part of the race , she can improve again and win on handicap debut. She is our only bet of the day.

Recommended Bet 2pt win Guesstimate 4.40 Redcar.