Day 1 Summary
Although More Thunder ran well its worth a comment that his conqueror Ten Bob Tony the surprise winner was beaten 17L by Lake Forest at Haydock.
Clearly there is minimal relevance to the form of the Queen Anne but I just wonder given the extent of improvement shown by Lake Forest since the gelding operation would he have done what Ten Bob Tony did only better?
When More Thunder was beaten by a horse that basically had ‘no chance’ the signs were not good for our other bet Valiancy, who duly failed to handle the fast ground, confirming the suspicions of William Haggas.
Whilst the focus remains clearly on Royal Ascot from a Somerville Lodge perspective there are several good betting opportunities at the regional tracks this week, that I am keen to take advantage of on Friday. Business will be quiet for us at Ascot until Saturday.
A quick look at Wednesday and, no surprise , there has “allegedly’ been significant money for three of the four Somerville Lodge runners:
Scoville 11/1 into 9/1 Fav for the Hunt Cup. Also in the Kensington Palace Alobayyah is 4/1 from 5/1 and Rhapsody 14/1 from 18/1.
Ascot on Thursday will be the quietest day of the meeting for the Haggas team with only two runners declared.
In the Ribblesdale Stakes at 4.20 Earth Shot faces 10 rivals including the Oaks runner up Legacy Link who is priced at 6/4 to go one better than at Epsom.
Earth Shot has been purchased by Wathnan Racing specifically for this race and is a high class filly. Its not always easy for Group 1 Epsom form to be backed up less than two weeks later at Ascot and the one point that all the trainers made was how much the conditions at Epsom had taken out of their horses and I see no reason why this doesn’t include Legacy Link.
If it is the case, although Gilded Prize also has to be respected I think Earth Shot is an each way bet to nothing.
Recommended Bet 0.5pt EW Earth Shot 15.40 Ascot
The Group 3 Hampton Court Stakes at 5.35 provides the perfect race setup for Morshdi in every aspect of the race including trip, ground and the draw in stall 4.
The problem is that his performance at York in the Dante left everyone dumbstruck at the extent that he went backwards from his win at Newmarket; there is a theory that the aborted trip to Chester was a factor.
However at York he went from being mentally strong and relaxed at Newmarket to being on edge and pulled away any chance he had in the first 3f of the race.
Such was the extreme change in character and with the hullabaloo of Ascot to deal with I don’t see him as a viable betting opportunity.
No Recommended bet Advised.
At Lonchamp in the 1m4f Prix de Thiberville a Listed Race for Fillies & Mares at 7.47 Pierian and Sea the Storm go in search of Black Type which they may well secure. It is hard though seeing them beating the Francois Henri Grafford trained Calasita who looks to have a fair amount in hand of her rivals and Michael Barcelona takes a day off from Ascot to take the ride.
No Bet Recommended
Three others run at the regional meetings 2 at Lingfield and 1 at Ripon.
Eilkleem looks to break his maiden tag in the 1m Class 3 novice stakes the 4.00pm Ripon following his 4th at Newcastle when sent off as an odds on favourite.
This is an average contest for a Class 3 and he needs to show more improvement and race craft before being considered a betting opportunity..
No Bet Recommended
Lingfield on the turf track comes with a wealth warning. Al Maslool returns to the track less than a week after again disappointing at Sandown. He is up in trip to 12f which must help but he is shown very little and has already had 5 runs without really justifying his mark of 71.
He may well do so – but again he hasn’t shown enough and there is too much risk involved to back him.
No Bet Recommended
In the 10f 3yo only handicap (Lingfield 4.41) Windbreaker has shown more ability than Al Maslool and Eikleem and is put in a handicap for the first time off a mark of 72. He is poorly drawn in stall 9 and there are at least 4 others that come into the race with equal chances to improve now handicapping.
There are better chances on Friday and Saturday and I will sit this one out from a betting point of view.
No Bet Recommended
Summary just one bet on the day.
Earth Shot 0.5pt ew 15.40 Ascot
Chrysalis Consortium 
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