The Haggas horses continued to run to peak form on Friday. Division ran a great race finishing 3rd in the Commonwealth Cup, thankfully with a view to Saturday, partially dispelling the high draw bias.
His habit of being slowly away is costing him a big prize but as always – in ‘William we trust’ and Division is a Group 1 winner in waiting – he will be ready for the re-match in the July Cup.
Opportunity under a masterful ride by James Macdonald overcome a huge draw disadvantage to win the Duke of Edinburgh. The small ante-post bets were landed but it was slightly frustrating that we didn’t go in again on the day. He gave Somerville Lodge a best ever 3rd winner at the meeting, with a strong chance of more to come on Saturday.
Zooming failed to stay 8f
The Redcar runners disappointed New Poetic, got beat at 4/11 after being backed from 13/8 but was yet another example of why we don’t back Somerville Lodge runners in Novices and Maidens. Guesstimate ran flat never picked up looking very one paced and isn’t progressing for racing.
Onto Saturday
14 runners across 5 meetings including 8 at Royal Ascot makes this the busiest day of the year for Somerville Lodge.
I will begin with the feature Royal Ascot card and follow on with the 6 runners spread across the 4 other tracks.
Royal Ascot
15.05 Group 2 1 mile 4f – Santorini Star
A race in the past dominated by Michael Stoute before his retirement this year features at least 3 previous Group 1 winners including Kalpana and Jan Brueghel.
It presents Santorini Star with her toughest test to date. Connections are very keen to find out just how much speed the ultra tough filly has over 12f.
She has twice been runner up in Group 1 contests over further and fully deserves her chance at the shorter trip. In both her Group 1 attempts she has forced the pace I don’t think that will be the case on Saturday and it will be fascinating to see if she has the speed to pick up top quality horses in this race.
Her considerable paddock value is already secured – if she can pick up Group 2 Black Type over 12f it will soar even higher. The quality of the opposition means she is not a realistic betting proposition but I would hate to back against her as she is the only horse I want to see winning the race.
No Bet Recommended.
Had there been a 7f Group 1 contest at the meeting Lake Forest would be my ‘Bet of the Week’ – there is not and connections have plumped for the 6F Queen Elizabeth Jubilee Stakes.
Once again this season a Haggas horse in a Group 1 contest has drawn stall no 1. The 5yo follows Needle Match in the Guineas and Maltese Cross in the Derby,
it doesn’t appear to be a disadvantage, as on the final two days of the meeting the high draw bias seems to lessen. In both the Commonwealth Cup on Friday and in this race on Saturday over the past 12 years horses drawn low do equally well as those closer to the stand side rail from the higher numbers. 8 of the last 12 winners of the Jubillee have won from single digit draws.
What seems more important is to be near the pace and with Regional drawn in 2 and the Aussie raiders in 7 and 9 Cieren Fallon should get a great toe into the race. On the other side of the course will be the Japanese raider Sotono Reve who was unlucky not to win last year from a very similar stands side track position.
Lake Forest will have no fear of the Asian raiders having already taken out the 10m dollar Golden Eagle at Rosehill as a 3yo. That was over 7f+ but since his gelding operation in the winter he looks to be considerably quicker, suggesting he can cope with the drop to 6f.
It is likely to be a race to view behind the settee with Lake Forest mounting his bid fast and late hopefully to grab the prize close to the line. I have backed him at a tasty 14/1 Ante Post and will do so again at 10/1 or bigger now the declarations have ben made.
Almeraq ridden by Tom Marquand also lines up and is a huge price at 25/1. He looks to have a good draw in 11 allowing Tom Marquand to pick which part of the course to race on. He has always been considered a potential Group 1 winner however, with a proviso that the ground conditions have soft in the description.
That will not be the case on Saturday but he remains a horse a great potential and it would be great at some point in the season with Jim Crowley reunited to see him he capture a Group 1 prize.
Recommended Bet 1pt ew Lake Forest 15.40 Ascot
Another potential Group 1 winner housed at Somerville Lodge goes to post in the Jersey Stakes where Saber Strike puts his massive reputation on the line in Group 3 company at 16.20.
It is still open to debate whether his best trip will be 6 or 7f -but he will certainly need to stay the longer distance on Saturday in order to chase down the 2000 Guineas 4th Into the Sky who looks certain to set a fierce pace The Haggas colt will then need to have sufficient stamina to see off the late challenges of Avicenna, The Prettiest Star and Thesecretadversary.
At the moment the sky is the limit for the undefeated Saber Strike a son of Night of Thunder and he looks set to be another winner for the super sire who has carried all before him at Ascot this year.
My own feeling is that he may be better at 6f but he is nevertheless a very solid 2pt win bet.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Saber Strike 16.20 Ascot
The procession of high quality runners lined up at Ascot on Saturday continues with the appearance of Binhareer and Realign in the Wokingham. The bookmakers have turned this 30 runner handicap into a virtual match between Binhareer and Double Rush.
Binhareer heads the market at 4/1 with Double Rush at 9/2. The prospect of them fighting out the finish has increased with Binhareer drawn 22 with Double Rush in 24. The pace setters Spy Chief, Candy and Apollo One are all drawn near the stands rail which further adds to the chances of the two main protagonists.
There is a slight question mark about whether Binhareer and Double Rush are at their very best on fast ground a comment that also applies to Realign who, given the likely set up of the rest, is possibly badly drawn in stall 12.
His work on the gallops suggests that Binhareer is a Group horse with several pounds in hand and I expect him to further boost the superb record that Somerville Lodge has in this race, and then tackle Group races.
Recommended Bet 1pt EW Binhareer 1-6 places 17.00 Ascot
The Saturday Royal Ascot starter and main course has offered fine dining of the highest order but the dessert provides a delicious finally to the day where Princling and Bayaann are both declared in a field of 19.
Last year for no appreciable reason this race was restricted to 14 runners resulting in our bet of the week missing the cut by 1 and although we got our stakes back it was a bitter pill to swallow.
Tom Marquand has chosen to ride Princling probably due to a favoured wide draw in 17 and because of the experience he gained in the rerouted Silver Bowl at Carlisle.
Bayaann is rated 98 and of the two has a greater potential to progress into Group company but has less experience and a low enough draw in Stall 5.
It is a wide open contest but with six places available and both horses priced up at 12/1 or bigger I have backed both in the expectation the yard can pull off a repeat of the Kensington Palace result when the runners finished 1,3,4.
Recommended Bet 0.25pt ew Bayaann and 0.50pt ew Princling 1-6 places 17.35.
The other six runners away from Ascot start off at Newmarket in the 2.00 where the unraced 2yo colt Under Arrest makes his debut over 7f. Ridden by Harry Burns he will be better for the experience.
No Bet Recommended
Two head to Ayr and when Haggas sends runners to the Scottish track it is never just for journey. Royal Hunt Cup winning jockey Harry Davies rides both.
Kinswoman looks for black type in the Land O Burns listed fillies race at 16.08 a race that in 2025 First Instinct got beaten by a 50/1 Irish raider that had ‘no chance’. (It just doesn’t happen to More Thunder)
This year’s contest unfortunately for the ultra tough Kinswoman has a lot of depth but hopefully she can get into the places and justify the long trip north of the border.
No Bet Recommended.
Divine Knight however is of interest in the 13f handicap at 14.53 having only his second outing under the guidance of William Haggas.
Purchased by Sam Haggas (Hurworth Bloodstock) for just 65,000 GNS and is now in the ownership of Aiden J Ryan – Divine Knight was originally bought as a yearling for 2yo for 270,000 euros. His runs for former trainer Sean Woods included a debut win over the Haggas trained First Principle.
Haggas has a great record when taking over handicappers from outside yards – our 2pt bet winner Great Dream backed from 10/3 to 6/5 the most recent example, winning by 11L on his third outing for the yard at Ffos Las on Wednesday.
Divine Knight is a 5yo but is still relatively inexperienced this will be only his 7th run – but the step up from 10f to 13f looks significant. By Night of Thunder he is closely related on his dam’s side to the Charlie Johnston trained filly Thunderous officially rated 109. She excelled over staying distances up to 16f with cut in the ground including a 4th place on a soft ground Hardwicke Stakes.
The bookies ran scared of the horse first time out for Haggas in the 10f Zetland Gold Cup and was sent off the 7/2 joint market leader.
He lacked the pace at the trip and on ground that was probably too quick, the handicapper kindly dropped him 2lb for the run to a mark of 84.
With significant rainfall at Ayr on Friday the ground will be on the soft side and this trip of 13f both look ideal.
This horse bears comparison to Sam Hawkens who was bought out of Richard Hannon’s yard by Sam Haggas and won handicaps for Somerville Lodge at Newcastle and Hamilton off marks in the low 80’s and then a Class 2 at Goodwood off 92 before being sold to race in Australia.
Divine Knight is the only Somerville Lodge horse given an entry in the 100,000 Bet 365 Class 2 handicap over 14f at the Newmarket July meeting and given that the likes of Opportunity, Orionis, Valiancy, and Finalise would all have had big chances in that contest, it is highly significant. He looks a good bet on Saturday at 6/1 with 4 places on offer.
Recommended Bet 2pt ew Divine Knight 14.53 Ayr
At Doncaster in the 6.20 Chimes of Thunder runs in a very trappy small field maiden. This looks a race where all the runners appear to be racing for future handicap marks and is one to avoid for betting purposes.
No Bet Recommended
Finally two are heading to Nottingham to run in handicap company under Pat Dobbs.
In the 7.10 Time Loop drops back to 10f and Desert Treasure runs in the 5f sprint at 7.45. Both the mare and the 3yo filly are coming off poor performances and need to return to better levels of form before considered as betting opportunities.
No Bet Recommended
Summary – A brilliant and hopefully profitable day with in total (very rare) 6 Bets.
1pt ew Lake Forest 1-6 places 3.05 Ascot
2pt win Saber Strike 4.20 Ascot (NB)
1pt ew Binhareer 5.00 Ascot 1-6 places
0.50pt ew Princling 0.25pt ew Bayaann 5.35 Ascot 1-6 places
2pt ew Divine Knight 14.53 Ayr (Nap)
Chrysalis Consortium 
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