We correctly assessed the limited prospects of Creative Queen at Newbury on Tuesday when she was put in as 5/2 market leader. The dramatic drift out to 11/2 on the off was more reflective of her chances but she never looked likely to win.
I think connections will be grateful that she has a win to her name and possibly an early career in the paddocks may beckon.
The immense commercial significance of securing black type for fillies is perfectly illustrated by the declaration of Albaydaa in Wednesday’s 7f Listed contest the 16.02 at Carlisle. She is a half sister to her stable mate Saturday’s Jubilee Stakes winner Almeraq. Her value would have gone into the stratesphere after that win and will climb still further with Black Type added into the formbook.
She has progressed well this season, running with credit in competitive Class 2 handicaps at Ascot and Newmarket before landing a Class 3 over this course and distance. The handicapper appears to have underestimated the Somerville Lodge factor, raising her mark by just 3lb from 83 to 86. That will become irrelevant as she will be given a big hike if she wins or goes close on Wednesday but also raises expectations that Haggas believes she is a genuine black type filly and is unconcerned about holding onto her handicap mark, which would normally be the case.
In this 10-runner field, she is significantly worse off at the weights with five of her rivals than she would be in a handicap. Elusive Butterfly is rated 14lb superior, Golden Palace is 13lb higher, and Figjam sits 7lb clear are the three with most in hand. A price of around 6/1 would be considered value.
I am frequently asked by followers whether it is worth hunting for value when backing horses trained by William Haggas. The simple answer is: not usually. Bookmakers are perennially defensive regarding the progressive ceiling of any horse housed at Somerville Lodge.
Consider three high-profile examples from this yard:
- Almeraq: Progressed from a Class 3 handicap off 90 to a Group 1 winner in just two runs over 11 months.
- Elmonjed: Advanced from a Class 2 handicap off 89 to a Group 2 winner over nine runs and 18 months.
- Tenability: Rose from a Class 4 handicap off 81 to become a Listed winner 11 months later.
There are hundreds of similar examples spanning Haggas’s 35-year career. Naturally, many more start at these lower levels and never reach elite company. However, from a value perspective, the warning signs flash red when a Haggas runner is asked to tackle superior-rated rivals as a short-priced favorite in non-handicap company.
A textbook example occurred on Sunday to prove the point: Orionis in the Listed race at Pontefract. Having progressed from a mark of 77 in a Class 4 to a 96 after winning a Class 3 at Goodwood off 90, she was stepped up to face two proven 100+ rated rivals. In effect, she needed to improve more than 10lb on the figures to bridge a two-grade jump. Yet, the market sent her off the 2/1 favorite against proven quality in Revoir (11/4) and Coedana (5/1). It was a glaring under-overlay situation, and she was soundly beaten.
Albaydaa also faces a double-grade rise at Carlisle from her last win. However unlike Orionis she has proven form in just one grade lower.
When Haggas horses do successfully defy these steep class hikes, the market usually offers more value . Almeraq managed a three-grade leap from Listed to Group 1, his 28/1 starting price accurately reflected the scale of the task. Both Elmonjed and Tenability were managed far more incrementally. Tenability went from a Class 2 handicap to Group 3 company, but only won again when lowered to Listed level. Elmonjed won a Listed race after his Class 2 handicap exploit before executing a two-grade jump to Group 2 success—and even then, his price of 16/1 (backed into 8/1) showed the market allowed a premium for the risk.
A contrasting lesson in value occurred with our bet on Divine Knight at Ayr over the weekend. He was raised from Class 4 to Class 2, but his profile and race selection suggested he possessed the scope to handle the rise—especially having dropped 2lb in the weights. Critically, we secured an early 6/1, providing excellent place insurance.
By post-time, a major gamble saw Divine Knight hammered into 9/4 favoritism—at which point his value evaporated completely. In running, our place insurance proved vital; the field crawled through the first 5f, causing Divine Knight to pull fiercely. Though the tracking position was fine, the early exertion sapped his finishing energy, and he faded into third.
Next time out, rather than contesting another hot Class 2, I expect Divine Knight to be dropped to a Class 3 handicap. If we can secure anything around 3/1, he will represent strong value.
Before Ayr, I noted that Divine Knight heavily reminded me of Sam Hawkens. During his tenure at Somerville Lodge, Sam Hawkens started in a Class 2 handicap, finishing fourth off 84 as the 5/2 market leader. He was promptly dropped to Class 3 level, where he won consecutive races at 11/2 and 3/1. Only then was he stepped back up to Class 2 company at Goodwood, completing his hat-trick while being backed from 7/1 into 4/1, before being sold down under for a massive profit. It is a masterclass in how the Haggas team educates and places their bloodstock.
As a strict rule of thumb: when a Somerville Lodge runner is stepped up two grades or more, I require a minimum price of 5/1 before considering a wager.
For a single-grade step up, the decision rests on a deeper matrix: the handicap mark, pedigree profile, running style, draw biasses, and, crucially, the yard’s historical track records at that specific juncture of the season.
At Carlisle, the Somerville Lodge record at the track in handicaps and listed races with horses 1,2,3,4 in the betting is 10-25 (40%) also excellent, including a winner of this race Tapisserie in 2019. Albaydaa a previous course and distance winner and with a genuine doubt about the ability of the favourite Elusive Butterfly to perform at her best on fast ground , she has a good chance of handling the jump in grade.
However from a market point of view we have the Creative Queen situation in reverse , the algorithms that fix the early prices factor in the ratings at around 3.30pm on Tuesday put Albaydaa into the market at 6/1. Then the ‘Haggas tax’ was factored in and by 3.45pm with only very small money placed she was cut into 3/1 by 7.00pm she was 2/1 market leader.
It seems logical to think she may drift out but that was not the case in the last 10 days with Great Dream (10/3-6/5) , Alobayyah,(5/1-11/4) Sober Strike (5/2-11/10), High Degree (4/1-7/4), Divine Knight (6/1- 9/4) and Extremely Zain (4/1-2/1) all retaining their place at the head of the market following similar moves.
Backing the six recent gambles at SP with 3 winning would have secured just a 3pt profit but nevertheless given the Haggas record at the track and her potential as mare valued in the multi-million pound bracket she is still worthy of a bet – although just a single point.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Albaydaa 4.02 Carlisle
Chrysalis Consortium 
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