The stats for Somerville Lodge at the Newcastle Northumberland Plate meeting provide highly creditable reasons for following the Haggas runners entered across the 3 day fixture.
As with most of the big meetings, 2026 sees an increased interest by Haggas in the big prizes, whilst retaining a focus on previously tried and tested pathways to the winners enclosure.
A resume of the record at the ‘Plate’ meeting over the last 12 seasons follows:
All horses Class 1,2,3,4,Races – 28 runners 7 winners Strike Rate 25% (No runners in Class 5,6)
Same group of horses but those sent off 1,2, in the market and excluding Novice and Maidens – 14 runners 7 winners Strike Rate 50%
That provides a typically strong platform from to build the betting pool for the 2026 fixture.
Further analyses offer up added insight and a possible edge over the bookmakers.
No runners in 12 years have contested the Northumberland Plate and only 3 the Vase. All 3 were unplaced and in each case it was their final outing for Somerville Lodge.
13 horses have ran in Listed or Group company producing 3 winners, all of them sent off 1 or 2 in the market,- only 2, of the remainder that lost, were sent off in the first 2 in the betting.
In handicaps excluding the 2m+ races the overall record is 4 from 10 increasing to 4 from 7 plus 1 2nd, 1 3rd, and 1 4th from the first 2 in the market.
To summarise any Haggas horse contesting a Group, Listed or Handicap race at Newcastle this week that is one of the front two in the betting based on performances over the last 12 years (7-12) is an odds on shot to win – the current profit is over 12pts to Level Stakes.
There is possibly no real need to delve deeper into the chances of the runners the statistics provide all the evidence needed, I think given that Valiancy will be the first runner in the Northumberland Plate if he is declared and is in the first two in the market he is likely to be a bet, along with Eternal Force Thursday, Great Dream, Power Fizz and possibly Wiltshire or Tiber Flow on Saturday. However the case for Eternal Force supported by further data is compelling.
Always highly regarded, Eternal Force has been expensive to follow this season when he was expected to show significant improvement. He was our ante-post ew bet in the Lincoln when he finished 7th on ground that was too fast and then caused a bigger dent in the bank when failing to land a 3pt bet at Hamilton, by a nose, when the slow early pace left the 4yo one stride short of landing the money.
He is stepped up to 10f on the AW on Thursday and going through his pedigree, performances too date and comments by connections I have a strong feeling that the set up of this race will see him to maximum effect.
The breeding of Eternal Force, by Dubawi out of a Galileo sired mare strongly indicates improvement with age and a trip of 10f plus. His dam Ghaziyah was an AW winner on Tapeta for Somerville Lodge and her best performance was over 10f with cut in the ground. This pattern follows across the bloodlines and there is no reason to suspect his first run on the AW will be an issue.
His initial runs provide the clues that 10f was thought to develop into his best trip. He began his career as a 2yo at Newmarket in October 24 over 7f in what turned out to be a hot maiden Relatively well backed at 5/1 – he was very green but showed plenty of promise for the future.
His career as a 3yo typically was designed to gain experience without pressure. Firstly back at Newmarket over 8f behind Bedouin Prince and then beaten just over 3l over 10f at Nottingham when asked to make the running, giving every indication that the trip was not a problem. That was backed up by his next outing at Hamilton over 9f where he was held up off a steady pace but ran on really well to be 2nd behind the future Zetland Gold Cup winner Danger Bay, after which he was gelded.
After being ‘cut’ he was found a weak maiden over 8f at Redcar which he won as expected as the 1/14 odds on market leader.
His next appearance was in Class 3 handicap company at Newbury over 8f on Good to Soft ground. Any market move surrounding a Somerville Lodge runner is significant. Eternal Force fitted the tried and tested methodology of a well bred Haggas trained 3yo going into handicaps attractively weighted on a mark of 83. The early market price of 7/2 reflected this. However, throughout the morning and up to the off he was a huge drifter returning an SP of 10/1.
The word was that the trip of 8f and ground only just on the soft side of good was against him. The worries were unfounded and he ran out an impressive winner. That performance encouraged Haggas to keep him at 8f and again with cut in the ground this time at Haydock in October, he was even more impressive winning easily and resulting in his mark going up to 96.
After the race he was mentioned as a Lincoln horse and that turned out to be the case sent off at 4/1 but unable to find sufficient pace on good ground but stayed on, after initially looking likely to be well beaten, to finish just under 3l in 7th behind the winner Urban Lion who beat the subsequent Royal Hunt Cup winner Rogue Diplomat by a whisker.
He was given a break before his latest outing earlier this month, over an extended 8f at Hamilton on soft ground. He was heavily backed from 9/4 into 6/4, but the slow early pace was against him and he failed to catch the 105 rated, group placed, front running winner Diego Ventura by a nose.
Haggas had commented, in the build up to the Lincoln, that what he liked about the horse was his ability to ‘sustain his run once he gets into top gear’. After Hamilton Tom Marquand felt because of the slow pace and lack of horses to aim at , he took longer to get going than expected.
Newcastle races over 10f can be slowly ran but with three prominent racers in the line up that seems unlikely but even if it were to be the case Marquand will I am sure make his move with at least 2f to run riding the race without doubt that the horse will get the trip.
I have posted early so that at least some of you can get the first shows. I expect Eternal Force to turn from ‘a foe to a friend’ for the rest of the season and justify the high expectations connections still have for him.
Next Bet 2pt win Eternal Force 3.12 Newcastle Thursday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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