One of the great fascinations of exclusively following horses trained at Somerville Lodge is how the traceable predictable patterns the horses follow year after year combine with the glorious uncertainty that makes every week different from the next.
That reality was never better exemplified than at Royal Ascot last week when the yard returned a ‘best ever’ 4 winners and yet the three most strongly fancied all failed to collect.
Saber Strike, and Valiancy didn’t turn up and More Thunder continued his marvelous roller coaster career, combining triumph and disaster when beaten by the 50/1 social runner’ Ten Bob Tony in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes.
To add to the kaleidoscope of results Almeraq won the Group 1 Jubilee beating another ‘strongly fancied’ raider Lake Forest, who if he gets fast ground on his next planned outing in the Group 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood and is a good price- is ‘bet of the season’ material. I have taken the 3/1 Ante- Post which is high risk with 5 weeks to the race and of course the need for good or faster ground. However, as things stand it is a definite target and he will be the only runner from Somerville Lodge. Looking at the make up of the entries if he gets to post on good ground he may well be odds on.
There is no doubt in my mind Lake Forest should have won the Jubilee and is my No 1 horse to follow this season.
Almeraq will head to the July Cup but 6f on fast ground on the July course is very different to 6f at Ascot and if the race is ran on Good to Firm I think Division will be the better bet. Of course he has to get the start sorted out.
Although it is not unusual for a horse requiring soft ground to win on Good to Firm, it is also commonplace that they get away with it once but not in the future, I would be weary backing Almeraq until the going is clarified before his next race and would leave him alone on fast ground.
Since Royal Ascot the yard has had several horses that have been disappointing including a run of 14 consecutive losers between Sunday and Wednesday this week and before Racing on Thursday a very low 14 day strike rate for Haggas of 18%.
‘The Gloriously Uncertain’ side of Somerville Lodge kicked into gear at Newmarket on Thursday when Vanilla Skies blinkered first time out in a maiden drifted in the market from 10/3 to 7/1, refused to settle and still proved too good for the 85 rated Shamiza from the Ralph Beckett yard, that is having a torrid month. Darzah backed from 11/2 to 2/1 before drifting to 3/1 on the off – then showed too much speed for her 5 rivals in the fillies handicap ran at a dawdle. Eternal Force failed to act on the AW and was never placed to challenge off a slow pace. The big drift was an ominous sign throughout the morning.
Then Kahin needed every yard of the 9f Hamiliton track and he battled well for a maiden win at odds of 4/6 on to give the yard 3 winners on the day and a 14 day strike rate back over 22%.
Although there are sure to be winners from the dozen or so that head to post over the next 48 hours, it is still not a weekend I want to be overly involved in financially. Great Dream ante-post market leader for the opener at Newcastle on Saturday was also taken out along with Valiancy as was Another Abbot and Thunder Call expected to follow up his York win at Chester but not declared.
The tried and tested patterns of Somerville Lodge are not being followed with the disappointing Ascot banker Saber Strike turned out again at York within 7 days., he is though still considered to be a horse out of the very top drawer.
Saber Strike was bone idle at Ascot taking an almost arrogant stance suggesting that the occasion was ‘no big thing’ and a ‘not bothered’ attitude in his race.
Saber Strike‘s quick turnaround is in the Criterion at York is not straight forward to sum up from a betting point of view. Before Ascot he was considered potentially the best 3yo in the yard. In the Group 3 Jersey Stakes he looked completely unflustered, in the preliminaries which probably caused even more money to be wagered on him
Unfortunately for punters he ran without any zip and treated the race as though it was nothing more than an exercise canter, making no effort to keep pace as the leaders quickened. Although, Tom rode him as though he was a certainty.
He has still been introduced in the York markets at 6/4 only behind Never So Brave who also has a lot to prove after a couple of very disappointing runs this season.
Saber Strike is short enough on the bare facts of the form . If the Ascot run was a one off though 6/4 is huge getting 9lb from Never So Brave. There are a few serious punters that I know are going to look to get the Ascot losses back and I would not be surprised if the market flip-flops the front two in the market. Cieren Fallon was quoted today as saying he is one of the best horses he has ridden on the gallops. and I will join them to invest and get the Ascot losses back.
2pt win Recommended Bet Saber Strike 2.58 York.
Also at York in the 2yo contest at 1.20 Mezzo Forte makes his racecourse debut. The Haggas record with 2yo’s in May,June and July running at York, the earliest you tend to see Somerville Lodge juveniles, is an excellent 9 from 31. However only 2 won on debut. Owned by Doreen Tabor, Mezzo Forte is bred in the purple by Wootton Bassett out of a Frankel mare rated 100 and could be anything, but is still best watched on debut.
No Bet Recommended
Just one runner at Chester in the extended 3yo + 10f handicap at 4.45 where Hoseki looks to back up her maiden win from a fair looking opening mark of 78. She looked to have an abundance of stamina at Redcar and from stall 4 I expect Harry Davies to ride her prominently if not make the running. Rebaatt won over this course and distance in 2025 for Haggas by over 6L also off a mark of 78, and this race may well have been the plan after the Redcar maiden success.
Recommended Bet 1pt win Hoseki 4.45 Chester.
In the class 3 handicap at 13.55 the ‘Haggas Tax’ on horses trained at Somerville Lodge reaches a record high with Zennor Storm put in as the 5/1 market leader. After the winning double gamble on Extremely Zain and Thunder Call at the last York meeting it is not unexpected but given you could have backed Extremely Zain at 4/1 and Thunder Call at 13/2 Ante-Post, although he has been gelded since his last run, 5/1 Zennor Storm is nonsensical.
In his 2 races this season over similar trips he has faced 19 rivals and beaten precisely 0. He is dropped in grade and the handicapper begrudgingly has put him down 4lb to a mark of 87. He has no form on turf and even if plenty of the Haggas magic is considered he must surely go off at a bigger price and even then he rates as a no bet.
At Newcastle Wiltshire loves the AW Tapeta but is almost the lowest rated runner in the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at 14.10. He is at the head of market at 4/1 but even given his excellent course form, should be double that price in this grade and at those restrictive odds is a No Bet Recommendation.
In the 3.45 Newcastle Power Fizz has not been seen since winning here on a cold night in March he is the only horse entered by Haggas in the Bunbury Cup in a yard that has a host of 95+ rated horses that could have taken their chance. He was put up to a mark of 97 which is high enough to get into the Bunbury Cup and a win here would come with a penalty would not help his chance at Newmarket. Given that More Thunder won the race of just 98 the task of Power Fizz on a mark of 102 would be difficult.
Well drawn in stall 7 in the field of 14 Power Fizz is very short at 7/2 and my feeling that this could be a prep for the Bunbury Cup is enough for me not to back him.
No Bet Recommended.
Summary
Just a couple of bets on the day
2pt win Saber Strike 2.58 York
1pt win Hoseki 4.45 Chester.
Saber Strike out to regain star status on Saturday
Chrysalis Consortium 
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