It is ironic that after paying heavily to give Eternal Force and Saber Strike chances to confirm their status as two of my top 10 horses to follow out of Somerville Lodge this season, a third High Degree turns up at Musselburgh on Tuesday in a Class 3 9f handicap at 3.00pm .
The question is will he follow the route of the other two and send me ‘over the cliff’?
High Degree has been heavily backed in both his two outings this year at Newbury and Sandown. At Newbury from 11/4 to 11/8 and Sandown 7/2 – 7/4.
At Newbury he was too fresh over 10f and at Sandown lacked the pace over 8f. He has only won once a Ffos Las maiden at 1/2 on. His next 5 starts have been in high quality handicaps. He was backed into 9/2 in a 100,000 Class 2 handicap at Glorious Goodwood off a mark of 93. That was followed by a 4th place finish off the same mark in a Class 2 handicap on Soft ground at Ascot. He ended his 3yo season as the 15/8 market leader in a class 3 Doncaster handicap over a mile on heavy ground.
He was dropped 2lb and gelded for his return as a 4yo. At Newbury and at Sandown he was clear market leader in both his races this season and has risen just 1lb to a mark of 92, still 1lb lower than for his 3yo career.
The race set up at Musselburgh on Tuesday is perfect. Lots of pace with horses drawn directly next to him , a wide enough draw which will prevent him being trapped on the rails which can be a big problem at Musselburgh and a jockey booking in Cliff Lee who is 3-6 when riding for the yard. The jockey bookings however throw a curved ball into the conundrum. Firstly stable jockey Tom Marquand has chosen to ride Another Abbot at Salisbury which throws doubt about the chances of High Degree and then Daniel Tudhope with a record of 18-59 for Haggas over the past 5 years , with Callum Rodriguez suspended, is riding for Ed Bethall for whom is record over the past 5 years is 3-31.
Further complications are added by the fact that Cieren Fallon goes to Ffos Las for just one opportunity for Haggas although he does have a full book of rides for outside yards.
My feeling is that the reasons for these bookings has to do with personal reasons rather than any connection with the chances of the horses.
Unlike both Saber Strike at York and Eternal Force at Newcastle there are no question marks about the conditions of the race not suiting High Degree.
The logical reason that he is running in the race is to get another win to his name that will then set him up for the big festival handicaps later this summer.
He is not currently in any of the upcoming sales, unlike stablemates Sea Force and Dramatic Star who have not come up to expectations, so there will be a plan beyond this 12,000 Class 3 handicap.
This brings us back to the question of a value price. With hindsight after they won it is easy to say that Extremely Zain and King of Earth were good prices in their first runs in handicap company in fields of 20 + runners. They were undoubtedly both were well handicapped but there were any number of potential pitfalls that made them high risks for betting purposes at the early prices of 2/1 and 10/3.
Almost every horse we recommend as potential bets are invariably smashed in price from the early market odds available (sic) .
If they are not, given the fear the bookies have about Haggas it is usually a Red Flag and that was the case with Eternal Force who having opened up at 13/8 drifted to 5/2 which was in fact nearer 7/2 as two horses were withdrawn and there was a Rule 4 to the early prices.
The question is when to take an early price if you can get on and when to wait.? The way the market reacts to Haggas trained horses has become the biggest factor in making profits.
I will try to be much clearer in the articles and unless Ante Post prices are on offer I will post only once the early markets are formed and will advise price and staking levels at the end of each days information.
It’s an intriguing day for a Tuesday with Tom Marquand making the short journey from his home to Salisbury to ride Another Abbot. Salisbury was the venue where the 4yo last season almost refused to race and although he looks a reformed character it still casts a doubt about his effectiveness over this course and distance.
A bigger doubt to his chances of following up his Yarmouth win is the presence of Addison Grey in this field off top weight. At Newmarket last August he gave a pound and a beating to the Haggas trained Binhareer who now races off a mark of 105. He has yet to win subsequently but has ran with great credit and his mark of 94 looks attractive.
The doubt about the track and the presence of Addison Grey will require that Another Abbot will need to be available at a decent price in order to be considered for betting purposes.
Somerville Lodge sends Adola to Ffos Las in the maiden at 6.09pm attempting to increase their phenomenal strike rate at the Welsh track.
However he has 10l to make up with today’s main rival Egyptian Pharaoh on their running last time out at Windsor and cannot be considered as a betting opportunity.
Odds Parameters and Staking plan for Tuesday
High Degree 3.00 Musselburgh Opening Price Bet 365 5.00pm Monday 3/1. This is just about the price I was hoping for, given he will be guaranteed a strong pace. The concern is his lack of wins and I will take out the EW insurance. Recommended Bet 1pt ew High Degree 3/1 1,2,3 places
Another Abbott 3.37 Salisbury Opening Price Bet 365 4.00pm Monday – 9/4 joint favourite with Addison Grey. This looks poor value given the form of Addison Grey with Binhareer and is a No Bet Recommendation.
Adola 6.09 Ffos Las First show 11/1 No Bet Recommended.
High Degree heads to Musselburgh in bid for overdue 2nd success.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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