There is no doubt that there is now a real issue backing horses trained at Somerville Lodge that are seen as potentially well handicapped.
Here are the market moves over the past 14 days for horses in handicaps and listed races that fit that bill of being potentially well handicapped/improving horses (I have not included Royal Ascot).
| Horse | Rating. | Market Move | 1st Show | S.P | Stake | Result. |
| Another Abbott | 88 | Drifted | 9/4 | 10/3 | 0.00 | u/p |
| High Degree | 92 | Cut | 7/2 | 1/1 | 1pt ew | u/p |
| Golden Horse | 77 | Cut | 7/2 | 15/8 | 0.5pt ew | 2nd |
| King of Earth | 85 | Steady | 7/2 | 4/1 | 0.00 | Won |
| Windbreaker | 71 | Cut | 7/2 | 15/8 | 0.00 | 2nd |
| Zennor Storm | 87 | Drifted | 5/1 | 12/1 | 0.00 | 4th |
| Hoseki | 78 | Cut | 6/1 | 5/2 | 1pt win | Won |
| Power Fizz | 96 | Steady | 7/2 | 11/4 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Eternal Force | 98 | Drifted | 13/8 | 5/2 | 2pt win | u/p |
| Darzah | 77 | Cut | 11/2 | 3/1 | 0.00 | Won |
| Hardys Hero | 81 | Cut | 9/4 | 6/4 | 0.00 | 2nd |
| Albaydaa | 85 | Cut | 6/1 | 5/2 | 1pt ew | u/p |
| Palace Artois | 57 | Steady | 8/1 | 17/2 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Orionis | 96 | Cut | 7/2 | 2/1 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Time Loop | 84 | Cut | 7/2 | 2/1 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Divine Knight | 84 | Cut | 6/1 | 9/4 | 2pt ew | 3rd |
| Guestimate | 73 | Cut | 9/1 | 11/2 | 1pt ew | u/p |
| Al Maslool | 71 | Steady | 8/1 | 15/2 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Windbreaker | 72 | Cut | 5/1 | 3/1 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Great Dream | 80 | Cut | 10/3 | 6/5 | 2pt win | Won |
| Winter Flower | 80 | Cut | 9/4 | 5/4 | 1pt win | 4th |
| Keep it Classic | 57 | Steady | 7/2 | 4/1 | 0.00 | u/p |
| Total Stake | 15 pts Early Price | 15 pts S.P. |
| Profit/Loss | +3.92 pts | -5.51 pts |
| ROI | +21.33% | -33.67% |
This is a very good illustration of why advised prices is important. Although the 9 advised bets produced a +3.92-point profit (+21.33% ROI), the contraction in odds on the winners (particularly Hoseki from 6/1 to 5/2 and Great Dream from 10/3 to 6/5) means the same bets settled at SP would have returned a loss of 5.51 points.-33.67%ROI
The list does include 3 gambles that went to post with maximum confidence and it is very rare that all 3 have been well beaten finishing out of the money and adding 6pts to the losses, which would be very unusual.The period would be among the poorest so far this season not including the profits made at Royal Ascot.
This demonstrates that the selections we advise consistently accurately highlighting value before the market moves, the bookmakers reaction means SP alone removes the edge.
We have missed two winners from the 13 ‘No Bets’ King of Earth which ran in an Irish Premier Handicap at a meeting where the yard’s runners have historically ran poorly, 15 years without success (hence the caution)
The other was Darzah at the Newmarket meeting that was ran as a morning fixture and she slipped under the radar.
Significantly unlike the advised bets where only Eternal Force drifted 9 of the No Bets were steady or drifted in the market.
On Tuesday High Degree made it 3 horses out of 3 in the last 7 days to massively under perform following heavy support. He was backed as though defeat was out of question from 7/2 into Evs. He was 5th beaten 2L but was asked to make up 6 to 7 Lengths from the back of the field and even off a strong pace that is very difficult at Musselburgh. However, like Eternal Force, and Saber Strike it is very difficult to back High Degree again with any confidence. He has now failed to land 3 consecutive major gambles.
Another Abbot as expected drifted from 9/4 to 10/3 and he again ran poorly at Salisbury in a race where another big gamble on Addison Grey 9/4 to 5/6 also went the way of the bookies, after he got a nightmare trip.
Abola was withdrawn with self cert due to coughing . This was the same reason that Sharp Move was taken out on Monday and it maybe worth taking a cautious approach to the yard this week. It may also explain the inconsistent results over the 14 days.
Wednesday just one runner
The appearance of the 3yo gelding York Tower at Thirsk on Wednesday in the 12f handicap evokes memories of a famous day in June 2018.
On that day his sire Call to Mind trained by Haggas became the first horse to be owned by the Queen to win on US turf winning the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup stakes over 2m .
The victory is often overshadowed because it came during the same Belmont weekend when Justify captured the Triple Crown and dominated international headlines.
Call to Mind won in a course record time which is a strong indication that York Tower will relish the step in trip to 12f and the fast ground he will face on Wednesday. There are only five runners but it looks to be a competitive contest -significantly York Tower heads to Thirsk a track that Haggas targets with his improving 3yo handicappers. His record is over the past 5 years is 4 from 11.
A win for York Tower will be a first for his sire, although his full brother Recorder has had moderate success with most of his progeny needing a trip of 12f plus to be at their best. Both horses inherited the stamina from their sire Galileo as their mother Memory was a 6f sprinter. York Tower looks to have inherited the same traits.
Call to Mind was contesting top staying races before he suffered a career ending injury behind Stradivarius in the Goodwood Cup. His stallion career never took off but a win for York Tower will be fitting for the Somerville Lodge team and the brilliant training feat they achieved in the Belmont Gold Cup that never received the recognition it deserved.
Price Consideration
York Tower has been put into the betting as 15/8 market leader at Thirsk. That is short enough and I suspect this price will hold up or possibly drift. The yards horses are ‘in and out’ at the moment and, as we know to well ,with several heavily backed horses running below expectations. I will therefore watch without a bet.
Trained by William Haggas – Call to Mind wins the 2018 Belmont Gold Cup for the HM the Queen in 2018.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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