Chrysalis Consortium

Transformational Betting for 2026

Prepare for Big Haggas Saturday gamble.

Throughout his 35 year training career Willian Haggas has remained true to his Yorkshire routes and at the heart of his list of annual targets are the main prizes at York . In 2025 he was the leading trainer at the track and next Saturdays John Smiths Cup is high on his wish list of races that he wants to win.

Before we look at his 2026 entries the history of his previous winners and near misses produces some interesting trends. He has won it 3 times:

2011 – Green Destiny 2013 – Danchai 2020 – Sinjaari

In total 20 horses from Somerville Lodge have attempted to land the prize over the past 25 years.

5 have been sent off as the market leader, none have been successful. Archivist last season at 15/8 was the shortest he finished third having been unsuited by a slow pace and was left to make his own running.

The nearest one of the market leader’s came to winning was Stencive in 2013 who finished 2nd btn a neck by stable mate Danchai.

Archivist (3rd) and Stencive (2nd) together with Kingfisher King (4th) are the only runners to have finished in the frame.

Fav’s have a poor record in the race with only two outright and two joint favs winning in the last 25 runnings. Andrew Balding and Richard Fahey match Haggas each with 3 winners over the same period.

It is a race where trends are inconclusive, what is clear is that most winners need to see out the trip well and generally if the race is ran at a level pace a low to middle draw is an advantage. Fox Legacy won from Stall 19 in 2025 but he was able to get across easily from his wide position and lie close to the leaders because of the slow early fractions.

Haggas entered 5 horses this year – Crown of Oaks, Yabher, Eternal Force, Alobayyah, and Scoville. Although the Ascot winner Alobayyah is among the Ante-Post market leaders by far the most likely winner from Somerville Lodge looks to be the (102) rated Yabher.

He is the only one of the 5 that is proven to stay the trip and will relish the likely fast ground . The form of his 12f win at Newmarket last Autumn could not have worked out any better.

The John Smiths Cup has been won in recent times by 3 horses rated over 100. Anmaat (103) in 2023 Educate (108) in 2016 and Farraaj (111) in 2014.

One further edge can be taken from the fact that Yabher was entered in the Group 2 Princess of Wales stakes at Newmarket on Thursday but has not been declared. He is in the same ownership as Extremely Zain and his racing manager said, when asked whether that 3 yo would take up a Group 1 entry ‘ I am not certain-but the owner likes his horses to run in Group company as soon as possible.’

That augurs well for Yabher in this Class 2 handicap. Normally I would recommend a small bet Ante-Post before the declarations on Thursday, however the form of the yard is now a real concern with Fractional joining Al Maslool as beaten odds on shots in the past 48 hours-and the fact that two Ante-post market leaders at Newcastle last weekend were withdrawn at the final declaration stage it is best to hold fire. How Klassleader, Elmonjed and Al Aasy fair on Saturday will provide a definitive picture. Until then it is wise to wait until Thursday when we will also know the draw.

Refa July 2026

Yabher looks No 1 Choice for Somerville Lodge in John Smiths Cup.


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