Thursday Review
With 10 runners declared on Friday and 18 on Saturday this weekend looks certain to be the busiest in terms of runners from Somerville Lodge for many years. Having been slightly out of form since Royal Ascot , the runners this week have performed as expected and back in form – so it is all systems go.
We got it right on Thursday not betting – Thunder Call ran well but the ground was too fast. However in the Princess of Wales stakes the weak finish of the winner Rebel Romance, and the no show of Convergent suggested Tenability must have gone very close to winning if had not been forced to be withdrawn having been found to be coughing this morning.
Creative Queen again disappointed – some of you may have followed the positive mention given to Rogue Attraction who won at 12/1.
Here is my take on the ’10 for Friday’.
Newmarket
13.50 Princling.
A very disappointing field of just six runners will almost certainly mean this could develop into a tactical affair. This looks a race that is Princling’s to lose.
He looks the clear form pick and is the only runner that is proven over the trip and on fast ground. He has not looked entirely straight forward but the presence of Evanesco who looks certain to make the running from a draw in stall 3 which should enable Tom Marquand to sit in the pocket and quicken up to confirm the Royal Ascot form and the belief that this son of Kingman is a well handicapped horse. He can get the Somerville Lodge team off to a winning start on Friday.
Although he rides the potentially top notch Pure Majesty in the maiden It wasn’t obvious that Marquand would choose to ride at Newmarket given the yards other big chances elsewhere but the fact that he is here is a big indicator of Princling’s chances. After Almeraq’s Group 1 win on Royal Ascot Saturday , there was a big expectation that one or more of Saber Strike, Binhareer or Princling would add to the yards tally. Whist the jury is now fully out on Saber Strike, there remains a high level of expectation for both Binhareer and Princling who is strongly fancied to win off this mark and progress throughout the summer and give Somerville Lodge a welcome winner at the July meeting.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Princling 9/4 Bet 365
16.10 Pure Majesty.
The only other runner at Newmarket is a potentially very useful 2yo by first season sire State of Rest. She is a half sister to Sky Majesty and has been talked about as a potential group horse for some time. It is not usual for a Haggas 2yo to head to the course with such a big reputation, and although this looks a deep contest I expect her to be well backed.
That will not, in anyway, alter the fact that she will not be given a hard race and she is yet another high class Somerville Lodge horse to be drawn in stall 1 this season at Newmarket. Being drawn on the wing is not ideal and on her breeding on the dam’s side fast ground could be a concern. The early price of 7/2 looks sure to be taken.
She is not a recommended bet but win or lose I expect her to be contesting the Group 2 Lowther Stakes at York on her second outing.
No Recommended Bet
York
14.45 First Instinct & Kinswoman.
Kinswoman is running in order to get some black type on her page. She is a hals sister to the Lockinge Stakes winner Audience but her odds of 33/1 reflects her chance in this grade.
First Instinct has a more realistic chance of getting involved in the finish but the very quick ground at all tracks this weekend looks sure to favour horses that can race up with the pace. These conditions are not ideal for First Instinct but when she gets her right set up I am confident she can win more races. We just need to be patient.
No Bet Recommended
16.30 Kahin.
In the 3yo plus handicap over 10f at 4.30 Kahin is a progressive Somerville Lodge 3yo owned by Shadwell Stud that fits a profile that makes it very difficult not to back them. The latest example was Mukhtalif who won a Class 2 race over the course and distance and was then sold to race in Asia.
Kahin is bred out of the very top drawer but he has been a slow burner but improved to win well at Hamilton a route often taken by Haggas with slow developing 3yo’s. A win for Kahin will ensure he has a high value at the Autumn sales if connections feel the time is right to maximize his value.
Recommended Bet 2pt win Kahin 3/1 Bet 365
Ascot
15.10 Crown Office.
I was concerned at the start of the season after his first race at Newbury that Crown Office may not have trained on. However, that was completely dispelled with an eye catching run at Sandown behind a very useful horse in Sticktoyourguns. It’s rare to be surprised when a Haggas horse is backed but that was the case, because the extremely well touted winner was sent off the heavily backed 2/1 market leader. Crown Office was supported from 6/1 into 7/2 and in a race where the form has worked out superbly , his run can be marked up as he became unbalanced before staying on strongly up the hill.
The handicapper dropped him a 1lb for that run and although this looks ultra competitive his draw in stall 3 on the round course gives his owners the chance to test the waters for their star More Thunder who runs over the same course and distance in the group 2 Summer Mile on Saturday.
By No Nay Never he is stoutly bred on the dams side being out of a Lope De Vaga mare and at Sandown he looked likely to finish outside of the first six but under only hands and heels riding from Tom Marquand made up 3l inside the final half furlong. Darragh Keenan takes over with Marquand at Newmarket. That last run was really eye catching and she is worth a small interest in a competitive race
Recommended Bet 0.5pt EW Crown Office 5/1 1-4 places Sky Bet 15.10 Ascot
16.23 Hoseki.
Hoseki is a rare Somerville Lodge ride for Luke Morris who is jocked up because he can do the weight of 8’2′ that Hoseki has in the Class 3 race selected to follow up his impressive Chester win.
Another to follow a tried and tested successful Haggas route with improving 3yo’s Hoseki will be very popular and hopefully the price will hold up sufficiently to merit a good bet. The 7/4 early price is fair
Recommended Bet 2pt win Hoseki
16.55 Another Abbot.
Darragh Keenan also has the ride on the tricky Another Abbot in the Ascot finale at 16.55. Maybe it is Salisbury, where he behaved badly previously but he seemed to go back to his old ways last time out at the Wiltshire track. That may not be the case, and he has been given a plum draw in stall 13. The pace in the race is drawn low and he may get a solo on the stands rail. Darragh Keenan will need to get some cover to settle Another Abbot but if he gets the 4yo settled and in a good rhythm there is every chance he will go close.
Its a busy day and the return to his old ways at Salisbury is just enough to put me off backing him.
No Bet recommended.
Chester
17.50 Brighton Beach
This a tricky 4 runner fillies maiden where all 4 could show sufficient improvement to win the contest. All 4 are trained by leading trainers and it is race to watch.
No Bet Recommended
19.00 Infraad.
Harry Davies did the business for us at Chester’s last meeting aboard Hoseki and a repeat performance is very much on the cards with Infraad who moves into handicap company rated 90 in an all age Class3 contest over 10f plus.
He is well drawn in Stall 3 in a race where along with the other 3yo Gone Fly (rated 95) in Stall 4 will dominate the market.
Both look to be only fairly treated on their handicap debuts however they could be different class to the other runners albeit that several have good course form.
It is impossible to assess which of the pair is the better but the fact that Rossa Ryan has chosen to ride at Chester aboard Gone Fly rather than the other Grade 1 tracks has swayed me not to back Infraad at evens.
No Bet Recommended.
Summary – An important day with 4 bets and the likelihood of at least another 4 on Super Saturday. I have stuck to the tried and tested Somerville Lodge route of supporting improving 3yo’s progressing up the ladder via the handicap route.
2pt win Princling 1.50 Newmarket
2pt win Kahin 16.30 York
0.5pt ew Crown Office 15.10 Ascot 1-4 places Sky Bet
2pt win Hoseki 16.23 Ascot
Cieren Fallon can be on the mark with Kahin at York on Friday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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