5 horses head to post on Thursday the start of a 72 hour period which could see between 25-30 runners from the William Haggas yard.
Whichever angle you look at the data for his horses running at HQ in July the results equate to being among the worst strike rates for Somerville Lodge, across the entire season.
Over the past 25 seasons there have been in total 266 runners at Newmarket in July with a return of 32 winners and a level stakes loss of over 116 pts.
78 horses have been sent off 1 or 2 in the market producing 17 winners and a level stakes loss of over 37 pts.
42 horses have contested listed and or Group races. The 4 winners show a smaller loss of just over 8pts, that was largely because two of the winners returned 16/1 and 10/1.
1st and 2nd favorites in Class 2 and 3 handicaps often a rich source of profit throughout the season is just 4 from 33 and a 20pt loss
There have been 9 2yos with zero winners and a 9pt loss
Last season at the meeting More Thunder’s slightly fortuitous success in the Bunbury Cup was the only winner from 7 entries across the 3 days.
In 2024 the win strike rate was 0-7 despite 2 runners sent off as the market leader. In 2023 the record was 0-8. In 2022 also 0-8 with 4 sent off at the head of the market. 2021 was the outlier with 3 winners from 7 runners
Overall over the past 5 years at the Newmarket 3 day festival and the 2 day fixtures at York, Ascot and Chester the strike rate is under 20%. We should expect no more than 5 winners if 25 horses in total end up going to post.
Thursday
On Thursday Somerville Lodge takes two on the short walk through town to
I thought Thunder Call got the benefit of a great ride on the Knavesmire and this race is a straight shoot out between the form of the Ascot Palace of Holyroodhouse and that York race. The Ascot winner Bacio is a Group 1 horse and Calico Blue did exceptionally well to finish 4th. He will be better over 6f and given the poor Haggas record in July at Newmarket and a great draw for Calico Blue in Stall 9, that will enable him to track the pacesetters, its enough to stop me backing Thunder Call the current 7/2 market leader.
No Bet Recommended
The other runner at Newmarket on Thursday is the admirable Tenability who has done us several good turns already in his career, and faces his stiffest task to date in the Group 2 Princess of Wales Stakes at 15.35. He has it all to do in receipt of only 3lb from Rebel Romance. He will give it a good go but unless Rebel Romance and Convergent have off days a 3rd place finish looks the best he can achieve
No bet Recommended.
Away from Newmarket 3 horses been declared and Cieren Fallon has elected to head to Doncaster to ride the 2yo Bulletsnap in the Class 2 50,000 Novice stakes at 14.10. It is no surprise that it has attracted a small but highly select field including 2 Godolphin runners plus one each from Karl Burke and Andrew Balding.
After a very promising debut run at Goodwood, Bulletsnap was put into the Coventry Stakes but didn’t run and was then sold to one of the yards biggest owners Sheikh Juma Dalmook Al Maktomn.
The ground was soft at Goodwood and he looked well suited to the easy conditions. We rarely back Haggas 2yo’s and with so much unraced potential in the line up it makes no sense to make this an exception to the rule.
No Bet Recommended.
At Newbury Windbreaker the mount of Harry Davies in the Class 5 handicap at 20.02, will be near the head of the market.
He appeared to show improved form when touched off at Wolverhampton 11 days ago, however I was still far from convinced about his attitude towards winning. The fact that the very impressive Nottingham winner Astracornus attempts to complete a double off just a 6lb higher mark and only has to give 1lb to Windbreaker is more than enough to let the 3yo run without a financial interest.
No Bet Recommended
Finally Creative Queen another from the yard with a questionable approach to racing heads to Carlisle for the 6f fillies handicap at 4.20.
The Ed Bethall trained Rogue Attraction has been dropped a generous 6lb for her last two runs one of which at Newmarket was in a Listed race where she led the field at the 2f marker. She failed to stay 7f on her debut at this course but wasn’t beaten that far ( just over 6L) and will take some catching back over 6f on a mark of 79 having been as high as 82 last time out. By comparison Creative Queen was only put down 1lb although beaten over 7l on her last run. Her mark of 74 looks harsh based on her form to date.
No Bet Recommended
Thunder Call bids to follow up valuable York success at Newmarket on Thursday.
Chrysalis Consortium 
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